Shot chart fever
I've spent the last 45 minutes or so scrolling through the various informational combinations available on NBA.com's Hot Spots feature, and I am only reminded of how addictive the thing is. We spend so much time talking about shot selection, guys playing to strengths, and so on. It's great to have a place to go screw around and find some pearly nuggets.
Often the numbers confirm what the eye seems to suggest. Other times, not so much. A few quick observations (unfortunately, the setup doesn't allow me to hyperlink to each person's page, meaning you have to do the clicking yourself):
- It's no shock to see that Lamar Odom is a) more effective around the basket (59% in the immediate vicinity) and b) taking the lion's share of his shots from deep inside the paint. But the ratio of inside to midrange and outside shots is revealing. Of his 498 FGAs, 321 are basket-adjacent (more than every other spot on the floor combined). Good thing, too. At most other spots on the floor, Odom converts at a very poor rate (low 30% and below). The exception is the right baseline, both midrange (9-16, 56%) and beyond the arc (6-13, 46%). Overall, he's shooting three pointers at half the rate of his career, and generally choosing his midrange stuff more wisely as well. Just enough to keep things going down low. And, of course, he piles up a large percentage of his FGAs on the break (one sixth, a scout told me the other night) and through offensive boards.
- We've all seen how efficient Pau Gasol can be when facing up
as a jumpshooter, but he's remarkable through the center of the lane
from the basket (60%) towards the free throw line (64%) and the top of
the key (50%). That ability to play away from the hoop combined with
Andrew Bynum's increasing comfort as a mid-to-high post player
is why in the long run, when they have 80-120 games together, the
Gasol-Bynum combination ought to grow increasingly unstoppable,
especially given each player's ability to pass.
- If you're looking for reasons why Trevor Ariza's game seems to be slipping, check out his full season shot chart, and that for the last 10 games. It's revealing to see where the shots are coming from, and in what quantity.
- Derek Fisher is the rare player who is far less efficient close to the basket (36%, why so many cover their eyes when he drives), but can score effectively from virtually everywhere else on the floor, with nine "zones" in which he shoots 45% or better.
- Kobe is killer in the lane and solid in mid-range, less so from beyond the arc. Obviously he needs the outside game to allow him the space to penetrate, but there's a reason fans celebrate when he gets into the paint or mid-post, particularly over the last 10 games or so. But relative to his output in other spots on the floor, Kobe does the opposition a favor when he "settles" for longer jumpers, especially three pointers.
- The Lakers like to push teams beyond the three point line, but against certain opponents (San Antonio, for instance) they have to be careful. The Spurs are extremely efficient from beyond the arc. But between the basket and the far line? Not so much. This is not a team of tweeners.
- LeBron James is crazy good near the bucket (almost 70%) but only 5-18 in two games this season against the Lakers. LA has done a good job crowding him by the bucket, but I can't help but think over the course of a seven game series he'd be better than 29% from close in. On the other hand, in two games against the Lakers, he's taken 45 shots, and only 18 have been by the rim (40%). On the season, 681 of his 1200 hoists (57%) have been deep in the paint. That's a good number.
Obviously not everything is revealed in the hot spot charts. Where in the clock a shot comes, whether it's off the pass or the dribble, whether the dribble goes right, left, or straight ahead, and so on. But it's a useful tool, and at the very least is a fun way to suck up an hour.
Take a look, and post your favorite finding.
BK
On Trevor Ariza's jumper. I've said that was never the strength of his game and while Jackson has said not to force a penetration, I think that Trevor's not being comfortable without the ball in his hands makes him less active. In the beginning he was doing the moving without the ball really well but I guess trying to stay out of the way of Kobe's/Jordan's and other's penetration makes him not be active for those tip ins and when he doesn't have the lane instead of giving the rock up he shoots it. He has been successful at times (namely the Golden State Game) but majority other times he isn't as good. Teams love it now that he's shooting instead of slashing.
Kobe's range is unlimited but he does take very questionable shots more times than not.
That's why he never had a FG% of more than 50%. Kobe is so good he should be shooting at least 50%. Wade has shot more jumpers than he did back in seasons yet his FG% remains above 48% yet Kobe's is less than 47.4%. Sure his better range serves him well when he's forced into tough shot attempts but it undermines his FG% and the team's as well at times.
Kobe shoots questionable shots at times. He's no ball hog, the real issue should be *WHERE* he shoots the ball. I think he has too much faith in his jumper and because he does not have elite footspeed (do not get me wrong on this he is very fast I would say around 4.5 by film and film is not reliable for measuring 40's. You can't tell that Randy Moss back in college ran a 4.25 using mere film!) he relies more the jumper since he will run into the help defender much sooner than other faster players not to mention to force opponents respect his outside shot. I think if he posted up more rather than catching the ball in the perimeter his FG% would jump even more higher (part of the reason he is at 47% currently getting higher because he is allowing to play SF role in the offense without forcing to guard SF too much).
Kobe Bryant shot again sub-par in the Finals of only 40.5% from the field. Kobe was guarded by defenders such as James Posey and Paul Pierce who are NO WAY comparable to previous Celtics defenders such as Dennis Johnson. Kobe in 2004 also struggled against a similar defense and was guarded by Tayshaun Prince and no disrespect to Prince's skills but Dumars in his prime would do a MUCH better job on Kobe than Prince did in the 2004 Finals (Prince made Kobe struggle for 38% and shot the Lakers out of the finals despite Shaq being dominant in at least 2 out of the 5 games played and Shaq averaged well over 26.6ppg on 62.3% in that Finals.)
Later on I'll show more of his shot selections.
-KB Blitz
Posted by: Kobeblitz | March 05, 2009 at 06:43 PM
The Lamar numbers are no surprise and one of the reasons he wouldn't fare well on the wing with two 7 footers vying for time in the paint.
Posted by: VMan | March 05, 2009 at 07:01 PM
love statistics. jk
especially one of LO. 4 points in phoenix and 2 points on 1-8 shooting tuesday. if i remember correctly, most of the shots were around the rim and layups.
BK, we know that u love LO. the lakers will be a great team when their co-dependency with LO will end. will see the end of the season and maybe what happens over the summer.
are there any stats on mental stability and mental lapses. yeah, the greatest rebounder, except in the 2006 against phoenix (lost playoffs) and how about the double overtime against the bobcats. his great mental lapses and UN-rebounding moments will describe his career.
let's go 16, 17, 18, 19, ..... rebounds. the sky is the limit
one kingdom for a horse. i will give up all these numbers, for ONE rebounds that matters. forgot, his mind is in the skies.
regarding ariza: when we played the knicks, walt frazier, who watched this guy every game from when he got in the league said: he stills has one drible, 2 steps, up in the air and a pass .... that will be a turnover or a bad layup. nothing changes in 4 years. he never had a shot, he will never have one. he missed his career. there is another game called volleyball, or the beach version. i know it does not bring in the same money. but hey, one can have a great career and also be world champion. forgot, all those girls on the beach. so looks like he did not improve his game in 4 years. same with LO. personally i believe that ariza is a step slow, mentally, or more exactly, he has NO basketball IQ.
Posted by: ouchhhhhhhhh | March 05, 2009 at 07:03 PM
Hypothetical reactions:
Kobe: In the gym practicing for 2 hours his 3pt shooting.
LO: "That right? uhuh, so?"
DFish: "36%? My job's to Drive and Fish for a foul."
TA: "I'd cut and slash but the Zohan ain't passing to anyone."
AB: "Really, BK, I know how to pass from the post?"
Posted by: p ang | March 05, 2009 at 07:09 PM
BK,
Outstanding work, Brian! I think you guys are at your best when you utilize your originality and create the news rather than just journaling it. I am very skeptical about the money-ball stats-geek approach to evaluating players but shot selection shooting percentages seem to me to be strongly compelling stats, especially when they cover almost a full season. Even if they do not play together, the Lakers Triple Towers give the Lakers three tall and long dominating inside players who produce very high percentage shooting percentages.
I thought your comments prophetic about Pau and Drew as a monstrous force once they get a chance to play together with both of them completely healthy. There is no doubt that we are watching the genesis of what could end up being one of the greatest front court pairings in history, a superstar big man duo that could be the first in decades for both to average 20 points and 10 boards per game. And that is in addition to Kobe Bryant. WOW! The Lakers are going to be so scary good over the next decade that this may be last real chance the Celtics or Cavaliers or any other NBA team has to win a championship.
You really have to step back and admire the job that Mitch Kupchak has done in putting this team together, the philosophy that has guided the team’s moves to replace what the team lost when Shaquille was traded to Miami, that inside-out power game that had given the Lakers three Shaq and Kobe championships. Before it is all said and done, the Drew-Pau and Kobe team will easily win more championships that the Shaq and Kobe team. Drew-Pau will be a greater force than Shaq and the MVP is a far better player now.
Remember when we always used to yell for Lamar to go to the rim, not to take 3-pointers? It’s almost never that we see a pro athlete, especially one who has been in the league for many years and who at times has made some incredible YouTube qualify bonehead plays. Yet, that is exactly what Lamar has done. It started last year after Andrew went down and lasted basically until the team-wide debacle against the Celtics in the Finals. And he did it again this year, clearly showing in my mind that he deserves to start on this team.
Tall-Ball over Small-Ball. That’s why shot selection and proximity to the basket will always provide the advantage in the game of basketball. Even in the era where big man who can play with their back to the basket have virtually disappeared, the Lakers were able to find three players who truly excel at it in Drew, Pau, and Lamar. What is going to interesting over the next few years is how the Lakers will slowly shift from Kobe’s perimeter game to Drew and Pau’s inside game as the team’s primary offensive focus. No matter what, for the Lakers, it’s inside-out basketball supreme and the start of another dynasty.
JMNSHBO!
DNFTT!
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | March 05, 2009 at 07:27 PM
That's good work BK.
Wes
Posted by: wesjoenixon | March 05, 2009 at 07:35 PM
"That's good work BK.
Wes"
yes, interesting...thanks for bringing that to our attention!
Posted by: mud | March 05, 2009 at 08:21 PM
KB Blitz,
First, I must preface this by saying I'm a huge Kobe fan. Dude is probably the most talented basketball player I've ever witnessed. However, I do think at times Kobe is a ball hog. It more has to do with his unflinching belief in himself, more than hogging the ball. He takes to many bad shots, always has, always will. This is the sole reason his shooting percentage is not above 48 percent. I don't mind this most the time, because dude is just that good. Kobe takes shots that most players, even great players, would never attempt. He also makes more of them than probably any player in history, so you need to take the good with the bad when it comes to his shot selection. Dude is an assassin, that will never change. I do wish he would make the game easier for himself and his teammates by getting more assists, but we've already discussed this.
As for saying James Posey and Paul Pierce are no way comparable to Dennis Johnson as far as defenders, I would disagree. True DJ was truly a great defender, but I don't think JP or PP take a back seat to him as far as defending Kobe. Their both bigger and longer than DJ and have good footwork. That gives Kobe problems. PP especially gives Kobe problems. He uses his size to keep Kobe from posting up or getting to the basket, thus forcing him into tough jumpers. Tayshon Prince presents similar problems. His length and agility makes it difficult on Kobe.
I think Kobe has it tougher against Pierce and Prince as far as individual matchups, than he woould with DJ and Dumars. Primarily because of the size and agility they possess.
Posted by: mikefloss | March 05, 2009 at 09:11 PM
Kobe Blitz,
Please don't take this the wrong way as I'm not trying to be critical of you, but your constant posts about Kobe and Kobe vs MJ are becoming very reminiscent of Mike T. and his obsession with Kwame.
Again, not trying to rub you the wrong way or anything, but MJ doesn't play anymore. Who cares what happened in the 2004 finals, or the 2008 finals, we didn't win. The Lakers, as well as the Bulls, have won championships as a team and they've lost as a team. Yes, some individual players stand out for their play, but bottom line is they win and lose as a team.......... Period.
Posted by: Laker Larry | March 05, 2009 at 09:11 PM
It is a good thing, BK.
I would like to see a little more info about our second team's shots, but that's okay.
It also reveals LeBron's weakness (which has been obvious to me). Keep him from the basket and the Cavs lose. It's that simple. Really. I know you think it's not, but it really is that simple.
What do we play for? RINGS!!!!
Lakers Today... Lakers Tomorrow... Lakers Forever.
GO LAKERS!
Posted by: Jon K. | March 05, 2009 at 09:20 PM
Laker Larry,
I'm done with comparing MJ and Kobe and that wasn't the point. The point was that how Kobe's shot selection has always been questionable at times. 2004 Finals, 2008 Finals as well. I'm no way comparing KB to any other great as of this moment but his shot selection is very questionable at times. If you had to choose I'm sure you would choose the highest FG% shot. Kobe at times chooses bad spots and while every player has those times Kobe has done more of that hence why sometimes I criticize Kobe instead of merely ignoring his shortcomings or for any other great for that matter.
mikefloss,
I don't mind you disagreeing with me but the *only* time I would say Kobe is a ball hog is the 2002-2003 season where he averaged 30ppg 7rpg and 6apg. It's ironic because you keep pressing Kobe to average 6 assists yet that is the same year Kobe was the closest be a ball hog. Like I said my criteria for ball hogs differ from person to person but in a system like the triangle offense if you average way more than 8 assists and scoring a ton it means you are handling the rock way too much assists and not running the offense fully and that is why I don't accept nor willing to ever accept your argument of Kobe needs to get 6 assists per game since I would say that is nearing excessive ball handling in the triangle offense.
And as much as Posey, Pierce, and Prince are great defenders they are no way near Dennis Johnson in terms of defense. Dennis Johnson was a true defensive stalwart whose defensive skill was only surpassed by Michael Cooper, Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Joe Dumars, and Gary Payton. Dumars, Payton, and Johnson were 6'4 yet they are amongst the best perimeter defenders of all time. To say that they are comparable by Pierce and Posey is absurd and insulting to other great perimeter defenders such as Walt Frazier, KC Jones, and Sidney Moncrief.
-KB Blitz
Posted by: Kobeblitz | March 05, 2009 at 09:40 PM
KB Blitz, LakerLarry...
I think Blitz's Mike T.ism is from him trying to "over" prove his point.
The most recent example:
- AK/BK post on Kobe shot selection
- Blitz' post on shot selection
Blitz leaves us with this gem:"Later on I'll show more of his shot selections. "
waaa..waaa...wat?
I sincerely hope those arent youtube clips you are going to show us! What more #s could you possibly bring to the table about Kobe's shot?
I dont think anyone (IMO) is disagree'n with your premise and yet "Later on I'll show more of his shot selections. "
wow....Seems obsessive.
Posted by: Korey | March 05, 2009 at 10:05 PM
On Kobe's jumper: I think the two injured fingers are really affecting his outside shot. He still shoots well, but not as good as it should be - especially his three point shot.
Posted by: Johanne | March 05, 2009 at 11:17 PM
KB Blitz,
I don't really consider Kobe a ball hog, it's more about excessive tough shots when he could get his teammates or himself an easier one. I've spoke on the assist issue, but in the Lakers version of the triangle, Kobe should get 6 assists per game easy. Remember, MJ had Pippen dishing 6 plus per game. Kobe has the ball in his hands more often than not, up to him to keep teammates involved and engaged. That means creating for them more. We'd be better and more dangerous if he made a more conscious effort to do this game in and game out.
On the D issue. I didn't say PP and JP were better defenders than DJ. I said if it came to matching up against Kobe one on one, they present a tougher cover due to their length, strength and agility. Obviously DJ never covered Kobe, but don't think he'd have much success. He was a tough cover for point guards and some two guards, but Kobe is a different beast. Actually, Cooper would have probably given Kobe the most trouble out of all of them.
Posted by: mikefloss | March 05, 2009 at 11:21 PM
BK
Where is Luke Walton's shot chart? Did you purposely leave his off?
What's even more strange is I don't see any mention of him in the comments section.
Is it that nobody expects anything from Luke?
Where is Luke Walton's strength in the shot chart? He's shooting 42% from the field......and that is including his late "hot" streak
Does anybody care about Luke's production?
In a little over a year Luke will be 30 years old!
Oh the humanity!!
Posted by: pfunk36 | March 05, 2009 at 11:45 PM
pfunk,
Since you asked,
Luke is excellent under the basket and on 3-pointers from the
right side of the floor (facing the basket). He's also deadly from
midrange on the right side of the floor (67%). He's decent from
midrange everywhere but dead center.
Where Luke is bad is 3-pointers from the left side and short
shots other than layups or dunks.
Ironically, Luke is like the anti-Josh Powell.
Powell doesn't shoot 3-pointers, but basically wherever Luke
is good at shooting, Powell is bad, and vice versa. Powell shoots
a lower percentage on layups and dunks, but a much higher
percentage on short jumpers.
Posted by: LongTimeLakerFan | March 06, 2009 at 11:01 AM
There are several interesting things I got out of those charts...
1. I used to cringe every time Lamar took a 3-pointer. Now I'll
cringe every time he takes a 3, EXCEPT when he's on the
right side. He hits 46% of those, so shoot away Lamar.
2. Powell should never try to get a layup or dunk. The stats confirm
what I've observed in games. If Powell gets a rebound and tries
to go right back up with it, he gets blocked more often than not.
If there's anyone other than him next to the basket when he
gets a rebound, Powell should always either kick it out or dribble
out 4 feet and shoot.
3. Trevor Ariza should only shoot 3's from the top. He's 42%
from head on, 39% from slightly left and 38% from slightly right.
He sucks badly on the baseline 3's though. And on 2-pointers,
Trevor should either stop at mid-range or go all the way to the
rim. He's much better from mid range than on short jumpers.
4. Shannon Brown should never shoot from more than 10 feet...
unless its on the right side.
5. Farmar has the weirdest hotspots of all. His chart looks like
a checkerboard. There are 5 regions of the floor where he
shoots 47% or better (2 of those from 3-point range) and 5 regions
where he shoots less than 31%.
6. Fish can shoot any damn time he wants from anywhere...
except trying to get a layup or dunk, as far as I'm concerned.
7. MBenga is another guy who's better on short jumpers than
layups or dunks.
8. If Morrison gets any minutes, they should park him in one
of the corners (preferably the left) to shoot 3's. He hits 47%
of his 3's from the left and 42% of his 3's from the right. He's
another guy who should never try to get a layup or dunk. Stop at 4 feet and he's better.
9. Sasha is really good shooting 3's from the left corner and
straight on. From the right corner, he absolutely sucks. Stop
shooting from the right corner, Machine. He's also someone
who if he drives off the 3-point line should stop and take the
mid-range jumper rather than trying to get to the rim (and failing).
Posted by: LongTimeLakerFan | March 06, 2009 at 11:17 AM