Fall off and tonight's game
Given the number of Lakers on John Hollinger's 2008-09 All Decline Team, it's no surprise the list has prompted a bit of chatter on the blog. Hollinger breaks down his ADT members into a few different categories. Two Lakers appear in "Field Goal Flukes:"
Sasha Vujacic:
Talk about a jump in shooting percentages. In his first three pro seasons, Vujacic shot 36.5 percent on long 2-pointers and 34.3 percent on 3s; last season, he made 45.2 percent of his long 2s and 43.7 percent of his 3s. The truth on Vujacic likely lies somewhere in between the two extremes. It means he'll continue to have value but won't match the type of numbers he put up last season. A preseason ankle problem and a possible loss of minutes to Trevor Ariza are other factors working against him.
While Hollinger is probably correct that Sasha's percentages will fall a touch, it's probably a mistake to use his early career numbers as a comparison. Relative to his actual skill as a shooter Vujacic was underperforming due to his tendency to play at 9,000 miles a minute, hoisting shots like he was handling a grenade. To me, Sasha is a 40%+ three point shooter, year in, year out.
Derek Fisher:
Fisher's first season back in L.A. was quite a turnaround, as he hit 45.3 percent of his 2s after making 41.1 percent over the previous three seasons; his 43.6 percent overall shooting mark was his best in half a decade. In fact, he was nearly a Fluke Rule qualifier. Given that he's 34, that his shooting mark is likely to return to earth and that Jordan Farmar is breathing down his neck for playing time, he's a good candidate to see his numbers regress this season.
Here I tend to agree more with Hollinger, because Fish has a far larger career to use as a sample size. His numbers last season were at or above his top end figures, including through his first stint in LA. Fish has a good chance to stay above his career averages, because the Lakers are so loaded that everyone gets a fair amount of higher percentage looks, but some slippage relative to last year seems likely.
In the "Bigs With Bigs" category, Hollinger includes Pau Gasol:
I've written about this plenty already, but the return of Andrew Bynum is going to make things a lot harder for Gasol offensively. He's going to lose a lot of low-post touches to Bynum, and while he's an effective high-post player, he's a lot more dangerous when he's on the block. People don't really think of him as a go-to post guy because of his skinny frame, but he is; that aspect of his game now will take a back seat.
To me, this makes perfect sense. It's not that Gasol isn't just as skilled as he was last season- he is. But with Bynum back, a more productive Jordan Farmar, a healthy Trevor Ariza, an improving Sasha, and so on, it seems reasonable to assume that Gasol's offensive numbers could go down. You can make the same argument relative to Kobe.
This is all, by the way, a very good thing, because it means the team is just that loaded.
TONIGHT'S GAME:
This looks to be LA's first real test of the season. The Nuggets will be opening up their home schedule, and welcoming back Carmelo Anthony to the lineup after a two game suspension related to his offseason DUI. Denver beat the Clippers Friday night in OT, so they're looking at a back-to-back, not a huge deal in the first week of the season.
BK
I think the Lakers are going to manhandle the Nuggets tonight. Even though the Nuggets might be motivated by the sweep from last year, they're still a highly volatile group with a tendency to go one-on-one. With Iverson and Carmelo swallowing the ball, it should be easy for the Lakers to trap aggressively on defense and recover if they're broken.
Lakers by 15 or more.
Posted by: "Pig" Miller | November 01, 2008 at 02:03 PM
Hollinger is too simple minded at times.
Everyone knows that a players' career has a trajectory.
When you use averages like Hollinger does, you are assuming a normal distribution. You don't have to be a stat geek to know that, it is Beginning Statistics.
When you look at a player's career stats AFTER the player's retirement, then using averages has more validity.
It falls flat on its face when looking at Sasha because obviously Sasha is still a young player who is still improving and his numbers are going to be in an upward trajectory.
What Hollinger is saying is that Sasha has already peaked as a player and is on the decline of his career which is obviously a ridiculous notion as long as Sasha stays healthy. In fact, a lot of people consider him to have been underperforming in his early Laker years, w/c means that his numbers have an even higher upside to them.
The other thing is that basketball is a team sport. Not only can an individual player play better, a whole team can play better and have better stats. It is plausible that Fisher's FG % will indeed be higher than in previous years because he is playing on a better team. Also, as players get older they tend to take less bad shots, and in a team with as many scorers as the Lakers, Fisher is smart enough to be taking only high percentage shots.
Posted by: LakerinBC | November 01, 2008 at 02:09 PM
I will be surprised if Vujacic's 3 pt shooting drops off; I don't see him as having peaked yet.
Posted by: exhelodrvr | November 01, 2008 at 02:12 PM
Chris Webber to make yet another "come back." Give it a rest pal! Baron Davis injured again. Can't get any breaks with this guy. At least he's now in Hollywood and not Oaktown.
Posted by: Jack at the Reagel Beegle | November 01, 2008 at 02:18 PM
Facebook
For those of you who belong to Facebook, there is now a Lakersblog Fan Club group if you're interested. At least 2 of you have Facebook pages.
Hollinger
Sasha will not lose minutes to Trevor unless Sasha's ankle is much worse than I suspect. LO, Luke and Rad will all lose minutes to Trevor. Trevor and Sasha will split the extra minutes that Kobe rests this year.
Gasol will be an All-Star this year.
Posted by: giantsquid | November 01, 2008 at 02:27 PM
Media people keep disrespecting the Lakers. Whatever, eventually they'll shut up.
Posted by: laker hopeful | November 01, 2008 at 02:40 PM
Helo,
"Having been a good shooter is not a requirement for being a good shooting coach."
I don't know; but if I had a choice, I might go with DFish, or Ray Allen before Shaq or Ben Wallace. lol
Posted by: Eric M. | November 01, 2008 at 02:57 PM
Have the Nuggets become more disciplined and organized this year? They have great individual talent in AI and Melo, but they don't have a system that blends their talents together.
It'll be interesting to see how Kenyon Martin and Nene hold down the frontline for Denver. I think Nene will have to have a breakout year for them in order to make it to the playoffs and compete. And I don't think Martin will ever return to All-Star form, though he remains a pretty good defender. Look for him to guard Kobe a lot tonight.
Posted by: EJK | November 01, 2008 at 03:25 PM
AK or BK,
Don’t really know who wrote the post because there is no signature. Hey, I thought we were not going to post anything anonymously? JK! Anyway, the first two games have given us a possible preview of what much of this season may look like, which is a solid 9-player rotation early in the game and lots of rest for the starters due to early blowouts, all of which yields a very balanced distribution of points, boards, dimes, and even steals and blocks per game.
For fun, here are the player averages in points, boards, dimes, steals, blocks, and minutes per game for the first two games of the season:
THE 9-MAN ROTATION
---------------------------------
KB – 20/10/4/2/0 in 32 min
PG – 14/8/4/0/1 in 33 min
JF – 12/6/6/1/0 in 25 min
TA – 11/4/1/1/1 in 23 min
DF – 11/3/3/1/0 in 24 min
AB – 10/6/1/1/3 in 26 min
LO – 8/6/2/1/0 in 26 min
VR – 7/4/1/2/0 in 21 min
SV – 5/2/2/1/0 in15 min
BLOWOUT CREW
--------------------------
CM – 6/2/0/0/1 in 6 min
LW – 2/1/2/0/0 in 6 min
JP – 2/1/0/0/0 in 5 min
TEAM AVERAGE
---------------------------
107/38/22/9/4
While we likely won’t be blowing out every team like the Blazers and Clippers, it is easy to see that the depth and talent of this team is going to yield some very unusual individual stats, such as Kobe averaging in the low 20’s and 6 players averaging in the low teens, 9 players averaging 20 minutes, 7 players averaging double figures, etc.
It will be interesting to see how this affects Kobe’s MVP chances, Pau’s All-Star team hopes, Lamar and Farmar’s 6th man hopes, and Lamar’s free agency and Jordan’s extension next summer. Of course, championship experience will hopefully help balance the scales.
Please note that all of this is solely my personal opinion based on nothing more than speculation, although the stats were compliments of Lakers.com.
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | November 01, 2008 at 03:28 PM
long time reader, first time poster in this blog. Hello TEAM LAKERS
Posted by: tower_of_power | November 01, 2008 at 03:45 PM
LakerinBC,
I agree with you about Hollinger, although he may well be right about Sasha, Derek, and Pau but not for the reasons he posted or for their diminished performance. All three of these guys will likely see a drop in their minutes and points per game due to the enhanced depth and quality of the team. Sasha, Derek, and Pau will have to share their shots, points, and time with Jordan, who has taken his game to the next level, and Trevor and Drew, who are back from major injuries that cut last season short.
It looks like we are going to be playing a 9-man rotation consisting of the five starters plus Lamar, Jordan, Trevor, and Sasha. Combine that with a fair number of blowouts and there will be very few Lakers increasing their minutes or ppg. In fact, you could make a good argument that Jordan, Trevor, and Drew will be the only Lakers to increase their averages or minutes this year, which means lower points and minutes per game for everyone else.
Kobe averaged 28 ppg in 39 minutes last year; he may well average low 20’s in 32 minutes this year. Pau averaged 19 ppg in 34 minutes last year; he may only average low teens in slightly fewer minutes this year. Lamar averaged 14 ppg in 38 minutes last year; this year he will be lucky to average 10 ppg in 30 minutes. Sasha averaged 9 ppg in 18 minutes last year; he may get fewer shots in the same minutes this year.
Derek averaged 12 ppg in 18 min last year and Jordan 9 ppg in 21 minutes; odds are the Derek will average less and play less this year with Jordan getting more points and minutes. Trevor averaged 7 ppg in 18 minutes last year; he may average in the low teens in over 20 minutes per game. Finally, Drew averaged 13 points per game in 29 minutes last year; he should average in high teens in 30 plus minutes per game this year.
Bottom line, look for Jordan, Trevor, and Drew to up their scoring and everybody else to score less per game this year.
Of course, all of this is solely my personal opinion based on nothing more than speculation, except for the stats which are courtesy of Lakers.com.
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | November 01, 2008 at 03:52 PM
Eric,
>>>>>I don't know; but if I had a choice, I might go with DFish, or Ray Allen
>>>>>before Shaq or Ben Wallace. Lol.
Once again, I agree with you 100%. Mechanics are one thing but there is something ethereal about shooting that only shooters understand. I can imagine a bunch of shooters reading this and shaking their heads up and down while the non-shooters are all wondering what I am talking about. LOL.
Does this say something about ex’s reputation and legacy in his driveway as a great shooter? LOL. I would say it does. JK, ex. Thank God for imagination.
Of course, this is all just pure conjecture based on nothing but speculation and is not endorsed in any way or manner by Eric M (who is not dave m). LOL.
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | November 01, 2008 at 04:02 PM
Drew's outside shot
Isn't Craig Hodges still the Lakers shooting coach?
Partial Repost
If Kobe averages 23 pts 6.5 rebs and 4 assts per game AND makes more than 50% of his shots and the Lakers win 68 games while LeBron averages 32,8 and 7 and the Cavs win 50 (leaving aside other candidates), who do you think would likely be more worthy of the MVP? (this can be addressed either as who you think will win or who you think would probably deserve to win under the circumstances outlined)
The two 50s aren't arbitrary (on my part at least) I think if the Cavs won 49 under the same circumstances, LeBron would not win the MVP but probably would with one more win (50). And Kobe not making 50% of his shots is always brought up when he's compared to MJ
Posted by: giantsquid | November 01, 2008 at 04:08 PM
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING LAKER NATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IT'S LAKERS GAME DAY BABY YA!!!!
This team looks vaugley familiar...I think we saw them in the playoffs last...oh no wait it's not them, they had better defense than this team!! This is gonna be fun!!!
Inhale now as I blow smoke at the screen...
IT'S TIME TO WATCH THE LAKERS AND DRINK SOME BEER,
TOKE A BOWL AND SCREAM AND CHEER!!!!!!!! LAKERS 4 LIFE BABY!!!!!!
CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP
IT'S TIME TO WATCH THE LAKERS AND DRINK SOME BEER,
TOKE A BOWL AND SCREAM AND CHEER!!!!!!!! LAKERS 4 LIFE BABY!!!!!!
CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP...
LakerMan 420
Posted by: LakerMan 420 | November 01, 2008 at 04:13 PM
I think Hollinger's reaching here.... obviously Drew's return means the rest of the team's sharing less pie. That's just common sense. All this other stuff though - flukes and geeks and actuarial tasks? Sounds like somebody's getting high and writing his column late at night.
Posted by: dave m | November 01, 2008 at 04:40 PM
Hey Laker Nation!
Just about 1 1/2 hours to game time baby!!!!
I agree this game should be our first real test. Going up against a playoff team from last year with a little grudge of their own going against us should make for a good game tonight. That said - I'm still picking the Purple & Gold to reign.
The guys are on a mission this year. The Thuggets from 'Enver will be a speedbump (maybe) on the road to June's parade.
In the words of our fearless leader KB24 - BUCKLE UP!
GO LAKERS!
Posted by: justanothermambafan | November 01, 2008 at 04:42 PM
The one thing you could say about this Lakers team is that drop-offs in stats for the individuals on this team doesn't mean a whole lot considering each person is going to become more of a specialist, stick to their roles and not play as many minutes. Everyone's stats will probably drop b/c the team on the whole is better.
ESPN keeps giving Hollinger more and more room to go out on his mathematical limb. It takes whole paragraphs and a slide-ruler to explain his criteria.
Posted by: lakers_sth | November 01, 2008 at 04:54 PM
My issue with putting Pau on the "all declining team" is that to me it is misleading. 1. His skills aren't declining and 2. He seems more comfortable at power forward, and has a smoother outside shot that we never really got to see much of last year.
I guess my problem was that some of the people on the list were for decreased stats, but I don't think that is always linked to performance.
Posted by: Elyse | November 01, 2008 at 04:55 PM
Eric M,
"I might go with DFish, or Ray Allen before Shaq or Ben Wallace."
You don't think it would increase the entertainment value if Shaq were the shooting coach for a team?
Posted by: exhelodrvr | November 01, 2008 at 04:59 PM
Anyone have a link for the game?
Posted by: exhelodrvr | November 01, 2008 at 05:37 PM
lakerinbc is right on. if you look at fisher's play in the last year, he played smarter and made less mistakes than his early years. Experience changes you. He may be a little slower, but he's sharper and smarter. you can bet fisher's percentages will be better or the same as last year because as lakerinbc said, it's a better team. he's 34 and in great shape. if jackson uses him wisely - and I bet he will - and barring any major injuries, it will be a good year for dfish. as for sasha, he's clearly bigger than last year and in great shape. that will help down the line. i don't see his percentage going down unless he takes bad shots, which should be harder this year because of the competition and there are so many good players on the floor at any given time.
Posted by: flip | November 01, 2008 at 05:40 PM
Link to the game tonight... anyone???
Posted by: keifo | November 01, 2008 at 05:41 PM
Yup laker in BC I agree...Sasha's previous seasons shouldnt influence his last one..anyone thats followed sasha's career will be aware he's at least a 50/50 odds to improve this season....will he? who knows but he certainly doesnt belong on that list.
Thats what happens when you spend too much time watching statistics and not enough time watching the players.Hollinger spends too much time beefing up his statistical inventions as the be all and end all rather than using in conjunction with other analysis to reach sound conclusions - he annoys me basically
Posted by: Kiwi | November 01, 2008 at 06:03 PM
any link for tonite game?
Posted by: joseph_toronto | November 01, 2008 at 06:11 PM
I'll bet Chris Mihm's stats go up this season!!!
How's that for a prediction.
Posted by: Long Time Laker Fan | November 01, 2008 at 06:26 PM
Game link
http://www.channelsurfing.net/
Posted by: Manwarul Alam | November 01, 2008 at 06:30 PM
I forgot to say glad Lakers contract with Drew had no incentives in it. It would have been assinine to do so.
Since PJ said he only expects to play defense and rebound and his role is diminished with playing with Gasol then he won't have chance to meet incentives that way.
Posted by: JustaLakerFan | November 01, 2008 at 06:40 PM
AK/BK
Off topic
Not to cause a fight but a legit question.
Why are political references banned?
If I was on political blog I would not be blocked for making a sports comment.
Also the LA Times has endorsed Obama and since you work for the LA Times why are comments blocked as your employer has taken a political side?
Really just a question with no ramifications.
Posted by: JustaLakerFan | November 01, 2008 at 06:46 PM
justalakerfan-
It's a reasonable question. The reason is that politics, especially during an election, are very heated, and very divisive and have no purpose (most of the time) on a site about the Lakers. People take politics very personally. By leaving it out of this forum, it helps preserve a sense of decorum and civility. Ours is a pretty common rule of sports blogs- no politics, no religion. Keep the conversation focused on the team and the game, leave out the other stuff.
And like you say, if you want to talk politics, there are plenty of outlets, from those at the LAT to other political sites.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 01, 2008 at 06:58 PM
Justa,
"It would have been assinine to do so. "
No - the incentives would likely have been related to games played.
Posted by: exhelodrvr | November 01, 2008 at 07:16 PM
JustaLakerfan,
It's because most people can't discuss politics in an even, calm manner. It tends to get very heated and often quite personal, both tones that will take the blog on a harsh tangent that adds nothing to a pertinent Lakers/basketball discussion. Thus, we'd prefer to exclude it from the start.
Most non-political blogs tend to make a "no politics" request. Forum Gold and Blue, for example, spells it out on their home page. And the fact that the Times has endorsed Obama is irrelevant. That's the L.A. Times as a general entity, not the specific L.A. Times Lakers blog. If you want to discuss them, by all means, email each other or meet up at the Times' political blogs. No worries. Just don't do it here, please.
Hope that answers the question.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | November 01, 2008 at 07:17 PM
What is the reason for a chat live game? What's wrong about live game posting? Blog is weird and Lakers game on the road is sloppy. Showtime at home and showboat on the road!
Posted by: Edwin Gueco | November 01, 2008 at 07:17 PM
Edwin-
It's no different than it's ever been. At home, we do a "live blog," with play by play and analysis. On the road, it's just a game thread where people can chat. This software makes it easier to chat with each other, so when we can set it up, we will. It's just like last year, when we'd set up a "game thread" and let you all comment.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 01, 2008 at 07:22 PM
Live game and you have 2 posts on chat is just plain crazy.
Posted by: Edwin Gueco | November 01, 2008 at 07:23 PM
It's one post, Edwin. If you want to communicate with the other bloggers, go to the live chat window and have at it.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 01, 2008 at 07:25 PM
Is there a seperate thread to the game...?
Confused!!!
Posted by: keifo | November 01, 2008 at 08:13 PM
There's still 8 minutes to go in the 4th quarter (I don't know who's leading) WIN OR LOSE this is the worst game the Lakers played so far this season. I can't stand watching the game. SO SO SO UGLY MAN!!!!!
Posted by: dacsila | November 01, 2008 at 08:15 PM
arrghh! i didnt get to watch the laker game because i live in arizona and was at work. its hard out hear. no more kcal 9. no more laker road games being on regular channels unless they play the phoenix suns. its weird out here. they were still running a comercial all throughout the season and playoffs with stoudamire, nash, and shawn marion AFTER the trade for shaq and they never updated it even as the suns were in the playoffs. strange. but overall a great sports day all around for so cal. the lakers play through a bad game and get the win, usc blows out washington, texas lost, and the celtics lost to the pacers. hhhaaaa!
Posted by: md | November 01, 2008 at 10:44 PM
Hello, everyone...
Venice was beautiful, even though it rained the last day. Gelatto is addictive - so are breakfast buffets.
Anyway, as Laker fans, believers in a team with very real championship potential, there is only one stat (other than w/L) that is worth paying any attention to:
Point differential. Do we outscore the other team, and by how much.
Great teams impose their will over their opponents. They beat them by any means necessary - be that scoring, defense, rebounding, hustle, what-have-you. This year's Lakers are versatile enough to beat any other team in the league, but there doesn't seem to be a set script for the modus operandi. The Warriors, to use an example, will win games when there 3's are falling and lose games when they aren't. They couldn't beat the Pistons in a grind-it-out game, because they would be playing to the opponents strength and not their own.
These Lakers are different (ie "Great") because they have the ability to win any game in any venue - and at any tempo. Players' individual stats will vary a great deal depending on matchups, but the team will flourish as a whole, and generally outscore their opposition.
So, in a nutshell, since a team trophy is the prize for the year, I don't give a fudge about player stats, when the sortable team stats will tell the story, and correlate much better with w's and L's.
Respectfully, (and buon giorno!)
HIGH CHEESE
Posted by: karyanr | November 02, 2008 at 05:17 AM
Glad Kobe made the flight.
That was U.G.L.Y.
--Fearless
Posted by: Fearless | November 02, 2008 at 10:14 AM
justalakerfan-
It's a reasonable question. The reason is that politics, especially during an election, are very heated, and very divisive and have no purpose (most of the time) on a site about the Lakers. People take politics very personally. By leaving it out of this forum, it helps preserve a sense of decorum and civility. Ours is a pretty common rule of sports blogs- no politics, no religion. Keep the conversation focused on the team and the game, leave out the other stuff.
And like you say, if you want to talk politics, there are plenty of outlets, from those at the LAT to other political sites.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | November 01, 2008 at 06:58 PM
JustaLakerfan,
It's because most people can't discuss politics in an even, calm manner. It tends to get very heated and often quite personal, both tones that will take the blog on a harsh tangent that adds nothing to a pertinent Lakers/basketball discussion. Thus, we'd prefer to exclude it from the start.
Most non-political blogs tend to make a "no politics" request. Forum Gold and Blue, for example, spells it out on their home page. And the fact that the Times has endorsed Obama is irrelevant. That's the L.A. Times as a general entity, not the specific L.A. Times Lakers blog. If you want to discuss them, by all means, email each other or meet up at the Times' political blogs. No worries. Just don't do it here, please.
Hope that answers the question.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | November 01, 2008 at 07:17 PM
==============================
AK/BK
Fair enough. I just wanted to see the reasoning behind the stance.
Makes sense and thanks for the reply.
Posted by: JustaLakerFan | November 02, 2008 at 10:41 PM