The Lakers, Hollinger style
There are folks who dig the numbers-centric take on NBA roundball by ESPN's John Hollinger. There are others who think the stats monger can stick his PER where the sun don't shine. And then there's me, who takes his results with a grain of salt but typically finds them interesting, even when I disagree with the oft-numbers-based conclusions. In particular, I enjoy his annual PER projections opus before each season starts, in large part because of the breakdowns for every player in the L. Which, by definition, includes every Laker.
Unfortunately, the individual player profiles are accessible only to ESPN Insider account holders. While I'm not big on the "pay for certain material on an otherwise free website" concept, I'm also not down with the Internet version of shoplifting. I also understand what hits and clicks mean for a web scribe. Thus, I can't in a good conscience just cut and paste Hollinger's breakdowns wholesale. However, his across-the-NBA positional rankings are gratis to all. Thus, I'm laying out where each Laker ranked for PER at the 1,2,3,4 or 5 (the average PER is a 15.00), along with a snippet of Hollinger's analysis. If Hollinger projected a PER of "not available," it's because the Laker in question is either a rookie or played so little last season that an educated guess couldn't be formulated.
Point guards
Jordan Farmar (projected 2008-2009 PER of 16.55, 14th-PG): "Defensively, Farmar is a work in progress. He cut his tendency to pick up silly fouls in the backcourt and did a decent job pressuring the ball, but in the half court he had trouble staying in front of his man and wasn't much of a factor in help situations. His quickness did help him to the 10th best rate of steals among point guards, and he should eventually be quite good as he gains experience."
Derek Fisher (projected PER of 11.91, 44th-PG): "Fisher cashed in 40.6 percent of his 3-pointers and hit 50 percent of his long 2-pointers for good measure. Overall he had his best shooting percentage in six years and very nearly set a career high. However, there's a reason his name is "Fisher" and not "finisher." He shot only 41.6 percent on shots in the immediate basket area, the second-worst mark in the NBA, and that continues a pattern he's shown in recent years."
Sun Yue (Projected PER N/A): "The 2007 second-round pick from China signed with the Lakers, but should expect to see nearly all his action at the D-League level this year. The 6-9 lefty is a good ball handler and passer for his size and has a passable outside stroke, but his defense and general athleticism are major question marks and he's quite thin."
Shooting guards
Kobe Bryant (projected PER of 23.83, 1st-SG, 6th-NBA overall, 1st-European jersey sales): "Bryant was named first-team All-Defense, the basketball equivalent of a
player winning a Gold Glove with his bat. He's great one-on-one down
the stretch of games, no argument there, but he'll also coast for
three-and-a-half quarters to save his energy for offense. Even while on
cruise control he's not bad because of his smarts and physical skills,
and he was a much more aggressive help defender last season than in
previous campaigns."
Sasha Vujacic (projected PER of 14.09, 25th-SG): "Vujacic also did a solid job defensively. Though his lateral movement isn't fantastic, he's tough and hustles, and at his size he's an obstacle for opposing guards to shoot over. He's also a good enough dribbler to play the point in a pinch, although he hardly ever gets into the paint and isn't much of a distributor."
Coby Karl (Projected PER N/A): "Karl only played 69 minutes as an undrafted rookie, but actually played them quite well. His 17 games in the D-League told a less encouraging story, as he showed a solid 3-point stroke (41.1 percent) but had a very high turnover rate and didn't create a high rate of shots."
Small Forwards
Trevor Ariza (Projected PER of 16.90, 12th-SF): "Offensively, Ariza isn't a shooter but is a terror in transition, where he can fly up the wings to get dunks. He's also an active player off the ball who can find buckets off of other players' penetration or take it to the bucket himself on occasion. The only problem with the latter scenario is that his defender is usually playing 10 feet off of him."
Luke Walton (Projected PER of 11.91, 44th-SF): "Walton's passing ability is truly remarkable. Although he rarely penetrates off the dribble he posted the second best assist ratio among small forwards and ranked third in pure point rating. He's only average as a scorer, however, as he's a borderline 3-point shooter (33.9 percent career) and doesn't get to the line often. Additionally, he's never created a high rate of shots, and even in his career year in 2006-07 only averaged a point every three minutes."
Power Forwards
Pau Gasol (Projected PER of 20.89, 4th-PF, 18th-NBA): "Gasol didn't seem terribly interested in defense during the Memphis
portion of his season but dialed up the effort a bit once he got to
L.A. He's notoriously shy about contact around the rim and works best
with an enforcer playing next to him, but he's also a long shot blocker
who can contest drives. He's not a strong rebounder, especially from
the center spot, and bigger centers can easily muscle him out of the
way on post-ups or the offensive glass. However, his quickness makes
him a strong pick-and-roll defender."
Lamar Odom (Projected PER of 15.93, 24th-PF): "For his size, Odom is one of the best ball handlers in basketball. The
left-hander excels at taking opposing power forwards off the dribble,
especially going to his left, and if help defense comes he's an
excellent passer. Odom is below average as an outside shooter, however,
with a line-drive release, and he's not an explosive athlete, either,
so he sometimes has trouble finishing at the rim."
Vlad Radmanovic (Projected PER of 12.25, 43rd-PF): "It seems an accident of history that this guy started every playoff
game for an NBA conference champion. Radmanovic's other numbers were
below average across the board and his defense was mediocre at best.
The Lakers seemed fascinated by his combination of size and shooting
ability, much as the Sonics and Clippers were before, but Luke Walton
and Trevor Ariza both were better."
(Note: Hollinger cited Vlad's "other numbers" in comparison to his three-point shooting, which improved. His true shooting percentage was 58.3, eighth best among small forwards.)
Radmanovic had surprisingly good assist and turnover numbers for such a
weak dribbler, as he found the open man when he was covered on the
perimeter and didn't try to force the action. Although he's a truly
awful ball handler in the open court, he's learned this and rarely
pushes the ball himself anymore.
Josh Powell (Projected PER of 10.09, 54-PF): "Pressed into service as the Clippers' backup center, you wouldn't
exactly call Powell's season impressive. But despite giving up inches
and pounds at 6-9, 225, he banged bodies, held his own on the boards,
and made enough shots to keep defenses somewhat honest. In doing so,
Powell showed he can be a useful fifth big man at the NBA level."
Centers
Andrew Bynum (Projected PER of 20.71, 6th-C, 20th- NBA): "As a defender, Bynum is great around the basket because of his size --
he can block shots, controls the defensive glass and is difficult to
post up against, though one would like to see him throw his weight
around a bit more. However, he struggles to defend the screen-and-roll
and opponents typically seek to attack him that way."
DJ Mbenga (Projected PER N/A): "Mbenga's job is mainly to defend, as he's mobile for his size and has
the bulk to battle against big centers on the blocks. He can fill that
role fairly effectively in short stints off the pine, but his lack of
skill is a major impediment to his moving up the big man food chain.
Mbenga has trouble converting anything longer than a dunk and is mostly
asked to stay out of the way."
Chris Mihm (Projected PER N/A): "Mihm has the size of a true center and rebounds well, but isn't a
physical presence in post defense and struggles to defend the
screen-and-roll. He does have nice timing on shot blocks, but he may
not have the explosion to get up for them in the wake of his ankle
problems."
AK
Remenber Lamar will be worth 14 mil (or whatever) if we win the championship.
If we win a chip, regaurdless if Lamar walks at the end of the season, it will be worth it.
But I think that we need to get better in order to win it all this year, and I don't see it with this squad. I don't trust them.
I saw the Celtic/Philly game yesterday, and I've got to say... DAMN!!!!!!!!!!!! They have not lost a step!!!!!! No doubt, better than the Lakers I saw on the court Tuesday and I hope I don't see today.
Now I know some people will say:
"It's only preseason, it means nothing." But I know bloggers will agree: YOU CAN TELL. TRUST ME!
If we keep Lamar and fizzle out just like we did last year, The Lakers are to bame.
Jerry West even defined insanity by the way of repeating the same act and expecting different results. Even though we have Bynum back, I still say that this won't be his breakout season, but next year.
AND SHAME ON THE LAKERS FOR PUTTING THAT MUCH PRESSURE ON A 20 YEAR OLD KID. Because they are teling Bynum "Win it for us." "We couldn't do it with this exact same squad last season, BUT WITH YOU IN THE LINEUP!!!"
Give me a break Lakers, I see errors in your ways....BIGTIME
Trade Lamar...Let's get better.
And cool it with Andrew, HIS TIME WILL COME!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Repost Lagend | October 09, 2008 at 12:42 PM
You know Butler, some of us has a white collar job (unlike you haha!)
Enough of the insults about you though lol.
Anycase remember pre-season means NOTHING. It's basically a time to screw around with crap. Last year Phil tried to make Kobe a point guard and it FAILED (too many turnovers).
Jazz "beating the Lakers"??
Last year in Pre season Jazz beat the Lakers 102-81. yet the Jazz lose to the Lakers in 6 games in the playoffs. Sorry that argument doesn't work (no but or ifs or whats! :p)
In the last game mostly everyone did a poor job except defensively. The Lakers held the Jazz at 39% at the Half before letting them go offensively. Plus 23 turnovers aren't going to help. Kobe was too much trying to run the offense, Lamar didn't do anything right, Radman was worst, Bynum picked up fouls.
Unlike you, I have NBA League pass I can afford it and it doesn't cost that much to me (haha!). I watched the important games (not games like Oklahoma City vs Memphis). So I can see at the very least the game and unlike you see what goes wrong and such.
And here's a q-tip into that Suns game. Shaq only scored because of no center in the Suns, two was in a half court offense so Nash's scoring was down (3 points??) and 3) No Amare equals more touches for Shaq. So don't try me.
I have to get back to work and I won't be home till late, this project is really important but I have a Tivo to record the game! Remember this is Pre-Season. Tell me when the REAL season begins otherwise keep believing in what only you think and you'll have the Spurs doing a sweep this time in the playoffs.
-blitz and butler get to work son!
Posted by: thekobebryantblitz | October 09, 2008 at 12:55 PM
What do you get when you cross a stat geek with a computer jockey?
Answer:
A fool who picks Utah to be at the top of the WC this season based on a pie chart.
Now, I'm not saying pick the Lakers, you can make an argument for the Hornets, Rockets etc. But Utah? Hollinger please leave your cave and actually go attend a game for once. Utah 4th place finish last year was a fiction based on the seeding rules. Portland will take that division this year.
Posted by: HmrHed | October 09, 2008 at 01:09 PM
The PER is just another reason Lamar is a major disappointment. Barely above average PER for a player whose talent alone should make him a top-10 performer.
Enough is enough.
Lamar=Laker until we find a taker
Posted by: htj | October 09, 2008 at 01:30 PM
PER is pointless.
Hollinger is trying to justify his claims using some math formula he created.
It is not scientific.
Posted by: steven v | October 09, 2008 at 01:39 PM
htj-
Lamar is only a disappointment if you expect great things out of him. Lamar will never be great, but he will be solid on one of the best teams in NBA history...
Lamar = Laker for Life
GO LAKERS
Posted by: mrbarneydangles | October 09, 2008 at 01:53 PM
One would think that the greedy ESPN people are doing rather well considering they SELL ADVERTISING SPACE and HAVE A MILLION POP UPS when you go to their crappy little website.
I keep it real; and by that I mean the LAKERS BLOG!!
GAME DAY!!! (A games a game and they are suited up; right??)
GO LAKES!
janaya
Posted by: janaya | October 09, 2008 at 02:25 PM
Lamar Odom = Eddie Jones
Terrific player that seems to have all the tools that is just missing that little bit of a mental edge to get over the top. Every time the pressure is on, he shrinks. Just like Eddie Jones (whom I loved as a player and was sad when he left), I think Lamar should be traded for someone with more of a killer instinct and a defensive presence. He also just makes too much money.
Ideally, Shawn Marion would be perfect. Wouldn't it be funny if we traded Lamar and one of our small forwards for Marion (either Vlad or Luke) and then won a ring. It's like we rented him for a couple years, let the Heat win a championship, and then traded him back in time for us to win.
Posted by: Sean | October 09, 2008 at 02:27 PM
HmerHed,
Utah is a VERY good team. I think they're the most underrated team in the west. Do I think they'll finish in first place? No, but only because I think we'll win over 60 and I do agree with Hollinger that Utah could conceivably win 58 games. They won 54 or 55 last year and that was with them starting the season with a very average record prior to the Kyle Korver trade that sparked their turnaround.
Posted by: Xodus | October 09, 2008 at 02:29 PM
Dangles,
Admit despite all your proclamations that you still blow your stack at LO when he disappears in crucial moments.
Put it this way, would you proclaim "James Worthy=Laker for Life" if he gave you AC Green's output (not talking desire and effort, but Magic's no-lookers bouncing off his head) night-in, night-out? Or would you try to trade the potential and expiring contract for a solid, consistent, contributor?
I think it's time to take the latter route. But I'm more than willing to play this year out and resign LO for a Ben Gordon-esque contract (since I doubt anyone really throws a much more lucrative offer LO's way). I'm only pressing for a trade if we can pull it off for an all-star caliber player.
Lamar=Laker until we find a taker
Posted by: htj | October 09, 2008 at 02:31 PM
Has anyone ever mentioned that Butler is much like the Black Knight in Monty Python's 'The Holy Grail'?
His team was thoroughly humiliated last year. While still in first, they make a move, considered by most experts, "the worst trade in NBA history" by 'call me a moron' Steve Kerr, slide to the 6th seed, easily knocked out of the first round by a wounded Spurs, then only to watch their hated nemesis, the Lakers advance past them to the Finals, a place this Nash lead Suns team, has never been.
So what does he do? A normal person withdraws and tries to hide his humiliation, but not Butler. He comes to the Lakers site and hysterically yells 'nosensical' and silly irrational taunts.
On the 'losing your arm' in the bad trade:
Butler: "tis just a scratch" Were gonna win the title, you'll see.
After humiliatingly losing the other arm in the first round of the playoffs.
Butler:"Its just a flesh wound" The Suns are still the NBA's best team.
Finally, on the Lakers advancing to the Finals, to a Suns Fan, its like losing both legs.
Butler: "OK, we'll call it a draw"
And now the Lakers roaring past the aging and hopeless Suns, as the NBA's new contender from the West.
Butler says wondering why Lakers Fans no longer consider the Suns competition: "Come back and fight, what are you cowards?!"
Fatty - "Every class needs a clown and every blog needs a fool"
(WARNING: THIS IS EXTREMELY FUNNY. Put down your Soda and swallow before watching. Fatty and the LA Times can not be held responsible for damage to your computer from sudden bursts of spray from your mouth)
Is Butler the Black Knight? http://tinyurl.com/56jjjs
Posted by: Fatty | October 09, 2008 at 02:33 PM
mrbarneydangles
Let me be the 1st to disagree with you about Lamar. If you remember it was 3 years ago when they try to mold him into Pippen. It did not happened, but since then all we doing just lowering expectation from Lamar. No one even talking of ALL-Star anymore. Here the question, how low you can go for someone making $14M this year? Esp. now, when Lakers working on creation of our own version of Twin Towers, How low we can go?
Posted by: LAL_Fan | October 09, 2008 at 02:34 PM
Xodus,
The top teams around Utah have gotten much better --
Lakers -- Bynum
Rockets -- Artest
Hornets -- Posey
Portland -- Fernandez and Oden
Utah is basically the same team. I'm not sold that they will be better this year comparatively speaking.
Posted by: HmrHed | October 09, 2008 at 02:39 PM
I'd like to find out if Hollinger's pre-season predictions have EVER been accurate at the end of the year, particularly for teams.
GO LAKERS!
Posted by: Jon K. | October 09, 2008 at 02:40 PM
Sean,
You are right on target about LO's lack of killer instinct. He illustrated this perfectly by his summary of his performance:
Asked about his point total, Odom laughed. "Nobody won a scoring title the first game of the year," he said.
Odom later shrugged off the game in general.
"First preseason game," he said. "We've got a lot more to go. Bad game, good game, whatever, that's all it is -- first game."
Shrugging off and laughing about sub-par performance is why we need to trade him ASAP.
Posted by: Laker Kev | October 09, 2008 at 02:55 PM
Can't blame Lamar for making 14mil, Lakers gave it to him. And its not like balls are bouncing of of Odoms head, he isn't Kwame. Everyone just needs to relax with pointing fingers. Like I said a few days ago, no Laker needs to get crucified until they lose a game by themselves.
Lamar = Laker for Life
GO LAKERS
Posted by: mrbarneydangles | October 09, 2008 at 02:56 PM
Steven V.
"PER is pointless. Hollinger is trying to justify his claims using some math formula he created. It is not scientific. "
Too true. I'm reminded of the current economic mess and the role that "valuation" played in it.
Numbers worth getting excited about: 08-09, but only if followed by the phrase "NBA Champion Los Angeles Lakers"
Posted by: The D | October 09, 2008 at 03:03 PM
As someone last year said, "Lamar can put up video game-type numbers" - and he can. Having a 6-10 guy who can come in and do his thing is an asset. Screw the 14 mil contract - numbers are play money to Dr. Jerry and other owners in the league. Lamar is not the lynchpin to a championship for the Lakes, although he could be the start of one if he got mean. That's all LaLa needs to do - get mean. Maybe he should start drinking (think NFL lineman in the 50's and 60's). Get mean, Lamar - and find that bar!!!
Hello to KBBLitz, Mamba24, Taliq, Xodus, Edwin, Butler, and the always too happy and fresh LakerTom.
Posted by: Otis | October 09, 2008 at 03:29 PM
Okay, so for all the people knocking PER...
How do you compare two players who play different positions?
How do you compare Steve Nash and Amare and decide
who contributes more to the team?
Do you just say that whoever averaged the most points was the
best player? Does someone who gets a lot of steals and assists
but not many points more valuable than a person who gets a lot
of points but not many steals or assists? Is the person who
scored the most points the best offensive player? Or is it
someone who scored 3 less points per game but had a 10%
higher shooting percentage?
PER isn't perfect, but for what it is, it's very good. It's a
way to roll all the stats that are measured in the NBA into
one combined number for comparing players. If you want
to compare a point guard with a center, it's a somewhat
balanced way of doing so.
The thing that PER doesn't account for well is good defense.
Players like Shane Battier and Bruce Bowen can change
a game with their stifling defense, but there are no stats
that measure it well. Not blocking shots, not stealing, but
just staying with your man, guarding him well, and making
him take difficult shots without fouling him.
That's one way in which Kobe is gypped by PER - he's a
better defender than several guys who are usually ahead
of him in PER.
But if you don't think of it as a defensive stat, but as a
combined offensive efficiency stat that includes a little bit
of defense, then it is useful.
Posted by: Long Time Laker Fan | October 09, 2008 at 03:31 PM
LAL_ Fan
Great point, remember all of the:
"ALL STAR LAMAR!!" chants? A distant memory now!
Posted by: onetime | October 09, 2008 at 03:45 PM
Why Blitz, you sound a tad less enthusiastic than last week about your favorite playa in the NBA universe, Lam-Od. What's up?
You said he's a fantastic defender...and a great choice for PG. Or was I reading someone else?
Keep working at that job and feel free to buy me League Pass when you feel in a generous mood!
Posted by: BUTLER | October 09, 2008 at 04:03 PM
HmerHed,
Lakers: I already said the Lakers would finish ahead of Utah.
Rockets: Yao and T-Mac are guarantees to get hurt (T-Mac is already having shoulder problems).
Hornets: Lost their only scorer off the bench in Pargo and have no depth behind West and Chandler (who have extensive injury histories prior to last season). Posey adds extra depth to a position where they already had solid players in Peja and Julian Wright. So they have no backup PG and no reliable backups for West and Chandler, plus Deron Williams always outplays Paul head-to-head.
Blazers: The roster is comprised of guys who either have never played in the playoffs (Roy, Aldridge, etc.) or played in the NBA (Oden, Fernandez) prior to this season. They'll be better this season, but they're a year or two away from contending.
Posted by: Xodus | October 09, 2008 at 04:05 PM
Jon K,
"I'd like to find out if Hollinger's pre-season predictions have EVER been accurate at the end of the year, particularly for teams."
I can't remember if his preseason ratings have been successful but his Hollinger Power Rankings have correctly identified the best teams (they were saying we were very good before the general public) and identified the NBA champion each of the past two seasons (the Spurs and Celtics topped his rankings each of the past two seasons).
I think PER is an interesting tool that has to be taken with a grain of salt. His team rankings I find generally reflect my observations. I think this is because it is easier to quantify what a team is doing with statistics than individual players. According to PER, Amare Stoudemire is better than Duncan and KG, but when you watch the games you see that the majority of Amare's points come off of pick and rolls with Nash and other feeds for easy looks. Team stats on the other hand can explain what a team is doing well and how, unlike PER.
Posted by: Xodus | October 09, 2008 at 04:17 PM
X,
Your argument assumes that Utah stays healthy as well. Sounds like you see Utah in the top three. I'm predicting 5 or 6.
Posted by: HmrHed | October 09, 2008 at 04:24 PM
LTLF,
I agree.
Posted by: Xodus | October 09, 2008 at 04:32 PM
Why do we care about what regular Joes, mainly Hollinger, have to say when they don't know anything about basketball?. This guy hasn't been a player, coach and has never participated in any serious basketball competition or tournament, to be able to provide a serious insight of the game. If you want valuable NBA information then check out Charlie Rosen's articles (former coach and PJ's long time friend) or any other retired player or coach.
If watching tv or going to games makes somebody an expert then we should all be holding Doctoral degrees in all kinds of areas.
Hollinger and the other so call ESPN experts said last spring that the Lakers were gonna easily beat the Celtics in the finals, I as a hardcore basketball fan first and laker fan second, knew that it was a bunch of bull, based on the way the celtics played the lakers during the regular season when Bynum was a 100%, playing up to his potential and providing a significant superior defensive presence to that of Gasol.
Posted by: David | October 09, 2008 at 04:33 PM
There goes John Hollinger again...clinging to a job I can't fathom how he got.
Lamar is getting lambasted today. Geez-loueez! But I think it's good, the honeymoon is definitely over for him and the fans. I think the staff thinks he can do what we need him to do, I think he believes that he can do what needs to be done, now he has to win over the masses. I think that, in the end, Odom will get traded.
I hated writing that.
But, I think that if he is already butting heads with Phil about his role, which he hasn't gone out of his way to establish. When he was looking forward to taking only 8 shots a game, that was telling. There's laid back, and then there's uninvolved. I think Lamar is moving towards uninvolved.
Boy, it's pre-season and I'm still negative speculating. I gotta get my optimism on, y'all. Dang.
Who knows what's going on, Phil's probably messing with everyone with all his cross-talk. We'll see if his "curling" comment brings some fire to Lamar's game. But I think that he won't hesitate to really tweak the line up to get these guys moving forward. We have to be ready for the Western conference.
Posted by: Jamie Sweet | October 09, 2008 at 04:34 PM
I am fine with PER. I do think it shows you interesting things about players. But I can't tolerate Mr. Hollinger's analysis based on his PER.
Posted by: frank | October 09, 2008 at 04:45 PM
David,
Former players and coaches get picks wrong all the time too. It wasn't only writers who were picking the Lakers to win the Finals you know.
I agree that Charley Rosen knows his stuff but that doesn't mean other guys don't know their stuff either. It's their jobs to cover the NBA while we get all the information we can't see on TV about a team directly from broadcasters and writers. Their opinion has as much of a chance at being wrong as you, me or any former player. But they certainly have more informed opinions than your average fan.
Posted by: Xodus | October 09, 2008 at 04:52 PM
kill me now! the lakers blog was become a promotional place for simmons and hollinger
Posted by: gigi | October 09, 2008 at 04:52 PM
Another reason why NOT to trade Lamar just occurred to me.
The Lakers will actually pay Lamar 11.7 million this season,
but he counts on the cap as 14.1 million.
If they trade him, they'll have to take more than 11.7 million
back in salary (to match salaries under the CBA). And because
they're over the luxury tax, every dollar they add to salary is
doubled.
So consider the Lamar for Shawn Marion example.
Without even counting for Lamar's bonus money, Marion's
cap space is 17.8 million. So even ignoring Lamar's bonuses,
that increases payroll by 3.7 million AND another 3.7 in
luxury tax.
The Lakers have already paid Lamar the bonuses, so
whoever gets him will only pay the 11.7 million. So if they
traded Odom for Marion straight up (if that were possible),
they would in reality add 6.1 million in salary and 6.1
million in luxury tax.
So think about it. Would it be worth 12 million more to have
Shawn Marion instead of Lamar Odom? So if you're wondering
why that trade didn't go down, that may be one of the reasons.
Posted by: Long Time Laker Fan | October 09, 2008 at 04:52 PM
HmerHed,
Utah's players don't have extensive injury histories like the other teams I mentioned. But even if they do sustain injuries they are likely to be more capable of withstanding them than a team like the Hornets.
My predictions go like this:
Lakers
Rockets
Jazz
Hornets
Spurs
Suns
Dallas
Blazers
I'm sure people are shocked I have the Blazers that "low" but like I said they have a team full of guys who have either never played in the playoffs or the NBA. I could see them finishing ahead of the Suns and Dallas, but I'm playing it safe.
Posted by: Xodus | October 09, 2008 at 04:56 PM
PER=Just for fun
Posted by: "Pig" Miller | October 09, 2008 at 04:59 PM
Xodus,
>>>According to PER, Amare Stoudemire is better than
>>>Duncan and KG,
And that's where the defense is a really huge difference. If
you strictly compared Amare's offense of last season with that
of Duncan and KG, he really was better.
If you take into account the fact that Duncan and KG are very
good defenders and Amare is a fair to poor defender, then
it points out the big weakness in PER.
Posted by: Long Time Laker Fan | October 09, 2008 at 05:03 PM
I like how the Nuggets are trying to spin things. They are trying to say that loosing Camby will make them better defensively. No joke.
Posted by: 15th Coming | October 09, 2008 at 05:10 PM
I am predicting the Lakers have well over 60 wins this season and sweep their way through the NBA finals!!!!
GOOOOOooOOOO LAAAaaaAAKKKKKKERS!!!
Posted by: JohnnyP | October 09, 2008 at 05:15 PM
Xodus,
You got the Rockets second! You really think Yao and TMack can stay healthy? Doubt that.
They'll be down at 6-8 depending on how many games the 2 stars play.
You got the Jazz and Hornets right. I think it's a 3 team west. The Suns might be a player as well, IF Fat Daddy can play more than 60 games. I think that is a BIG if though.
Posted by: Eric M. | October 09, 2008 at 05:16 PM
Long Time Laker Fan,
I agree with you 100%. PER also doesn't take into account how things happen on the court. Amare was absolutely an offensive juggernaut last season, but he's still not as polished a scorer as Duncan and KG. He scores off of Nash feeds.
Eric M,
I didn't like putting the Rockets that high either but if Yao and T-Mac can stay reasonably healthy they should be very good. I know that's a huge if.
Posted by: Xodus | October 09, 2008 at 05:35 PM
KG & TD are above average defenders who use experience and reputation to get away with fouling just about EVERY SINGLE TIME down the court.
KG has admitted this. I hope the refs take notice.
Defensive reputations are blown well out of proportion in the NBA. I'm pretty sure KB24 takes extra delight in lighting up the "so-called" defensive stoppers.
Posted by: htj | October 09, 2008 at 05:38 PM
I have mine:
Lakers
Jazz
Hornets
Rockets
Blazers
Spurs
Mavs
Suns
Though I think the Rockets are potentially the second best team in the WC after the Lakers, I see them finishing 4th because they will miss more injury time than the younger teams and they are in the toughest division in the NBA.
Jazz will place 2nd and that's bec. they are in the weakest division in the WC and always have one of the best home court records. Also, they have fewer new things to adjust to , compared to new players and player combinations coming in for LA, Rockets, Hornets, Blazers.
The Spurs, Mavs and Suns finishing 6th, 7th and 8th definitely will signal a changing of the guard in the NBA as younger teams in the WC take over. Of the younger teams, the Rockets and Lakers have the most experience.
I see the Lakers riding the Suns off to the sunset 4-0 in the first round, then a tough 4-3 over Rockets in the 2nd round. A WC final with the Hornets, as Lakers win 4-1. Then over Celtics in the Final 4-2.
I see Deron Will outplaying Chris Paul in their series but Hornets still win over-all.
Posted by: LakerinBC | October 09, 2008 at 06:08 PM
The only thing I like about Lamar is that he blazes.
Weed makes everything better.
Posted by: bAkEr LaKeR | October 09, 2008 at 06:30 PM
The preseason games being irrelevant notwithstanding, I predict that LO is headed to the bench as reserve PF.
Thats' the reason that Bynum didn't start.
Basically, Lakers are trying to manage LO's move to the bench without driving him to tears.
Ariza's play has made it clear that he will be starting as SF this season. So the starting 5 will be Bynum/Gasol/Ariza/Kobe/Fisher. They need Fisher for the 3 pt shooting, the triangle experience and his defense versus PGs. More than LO's rebounding and ball distribution.
LO is like Horry used to be in not really being physically and mentally ready until the end of the regular season and the playoffs. Both started their career as SFs and PJ converted them into "skinny" PFs because PJ is an unconventional thinker and needed a different kind of PF to play alongside dominant centers. The difference is you always knew that Horry's shot was money in the playoffs. LO?
Now, it will destroy LO emotionally if the Lakers tell him, "You have to move to the bench and lose your starting spot because Ariza is playing better and fits Bynum/Gasol/Kobe/Fisher better as a combo." Ariza is younger, less established and earns a lot less so LO will not take this very well.
However, what the Lakers will do is tell LO, "You have to move to the bench because we want to start Andrew Bynum." LO can not argue against this because it is obvious that Bynum is now one of the top 5 centers in the NBA and to not start him would be foolish and stupid. Of course, LO also can not argue that he s/d start instead of Paul Gasol who is an All-Star and a World Championship MVP.
So that leaves LO realizing that the only place for him is to be the super sixth man, as a reserve PF, playing a lot of minutes when Bynum sits and Gasol moves over to Center, or when Gasol sits. The Lakers have already seen that LO can not play SF or PG.
And he really is more valuable playing from the bench, as he provides stability and experience to Farmar, Sasha and Vlad. His rebounding skills will be more needed with Bynum or Gasol or both out of the game.
So the bench 5 are going to be: Mihm or Mbenga, Odom, Vlad or Luke, Sasha and Farmar. With Powell being in the mix as well especially if Mihm isn't fully healthy or Mbenga doesn't improve.
Posted by: LakerinBC | October 09, 2008 at 06:33 PM
So .....this is besides the point
anyone have a link to tonights preseason action
anyone?...
colorado roll call!.....where is hugo....where is tim4show...
come on!
colorado second home of the lakers!
Posted by: Lakers4Realz | October 09, 2008 at 06:51 PM
I've seen some pretty interesting trade proposals today with all of the expiring contracts out there. Mitch has to be aware and I'm sure he's already cooking up a plan, just in case.
Just incase the our nightmare's come true and Lamar turns out to be a complete dud, we must have a plan b.
Now I wish I could be on the same page with mrbarneydangles. he does bring up some valid points. But at the end of the day, I can see the writing on the wall.
Now, if Lamar does step up, I will be the first one to say that I was wrong.
PROVE ME WRONG, LAMAR!
PROVE ME WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: 1978 | October 09, 2008 at 06:52 PM
I said before pre-season that Farmar should start.
Scratttttttttttttttttttttttttttch that!
Fish is shooting the lights out!!
Posted by: bAkEr LaKeR | October 09, 2008 at 06:56 PM
anyone have a link ot the game tonite?
Posted by: Justin N. | October 09, 2008 at 06:57 PM
Link pleaseeeee!!!!
Posted by: bobie | October 09, 2008 at 07:01 PM
Odds that the Lakers will have a 60+ win season ... 100%
Odds that Lamar Odom will be a Laker past the trading deadline... ZERO
Asking Lamar to play four different positions means he doesn't have a role on this team. PJ's comments about what he expects from Lamar prior to tonight's game can best be described as an ominous mixed message.
Why? Never living up to his potential. Never being "clutch." Showing up to camp out of shape. Sleepwalking through the first pre-season game. Whining (almost to the point of tears) at the suggestion he could come off the bench -- even dissing Phil in public when the idea was first mentioned.
The Lakers have clearly decided, they're moving on. The guy has a great heart and most of the time is a great team mate. But Lamar is only a Laker until the team finds a taker.*
(*Apologies to the other bloggers who've used this line previously.)
Posted by: Rick Friedman | October 09, 2008 at 07:01 PM
LakerInBC,
Well said.
I have thought all along that LO was going to be the sixth man.
But you stated it so eloquently and logically.
Posted by: Eric M. | October 09, 2008 at 07:07 PM
Anyone has any idea what chanel game on? I have both League Pass and NBA TV, FSN WEST and can not find it.
Please help!!!
Posted by: LAL_Fan | October 09, 2008 at 07:09 PM