Know thy enemy: Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets: 50-32 (2nd in the Northwest Division, 8th in the Western Conference)
Key Additions: Chris Andersen, Renaldo Balkman, Dahntay Jones
Key Losses: Marcus Camby, Eduardo Najera, Yakhouba Diawara
There is an expression used for many good teams across sports, that they are greater than the sum of their parts. It applies both to scrappy squads that achieve beyond what seems possible on paper before enshrinement in Disney films, and to talented groups that elevate to elite levels.
Then there are the Denver Nuggets.
Yes, the team won 50 games last season in a hyper-competitive Western Conference, but overall was a dysfunctional team worse than the sum of its parts. Not all that surprising, given a core built around Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, two outstanding players and competitors with styles that don't complement each other in the slightest, supplemented by J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin and a coach in George Karl seemingly uninterested in putting things together in a cohesive way. While the overall numbers might say otherwise, the Nuggets weren't a good defensive team when it mattered. They regressed down the stretch on their end of the floor, and, just as disorganized play offensively often made it tough to get a key bucket, lack of discipline defensively meant the Nuggets struggled to get stops in tight spots.
And when the playoffs rolled around, they crumbled like perfectly cooked bacon.
This year, the Nuggets lost two of their better defenders in Camby and Najera, and will need Martin and Nene to stay healthy (good luck with that) and step up big time if Denver is to avoid the lottery. I don't see it happening. They'll be dangerous in an "any given night" sort of way, but aren't close to contenders.
For more on the Denver, I asked for some feedback from Jeremy at the Nuggets blog Pickaxe and Roll, who was nice enough to respond in some detail. I can't say I agree with everything he writes, but as they say, THAT'S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES!
1) While John Hollinger might disagree, the Nuggets weren't a good defensive team last season, and then sold off Marcus Camby for... nothing. Nene and K-Mart are back (for now), and will help, but how much improvement do you think they can make on that end? How much better do they need to get?
Jeremy, Pickaxe and Roll: Nuggets fans who are into some of the "advanced" statistics such as defensive efficiency had quite a riddle on their hands last season. On one hand they were a top five team in defensive efficiency for the first half of the season. On the other hand we were witnesses to a defense that practiced horrible principles and gave up a plethora of easy buckets game after game.
As usual, the truth is somewhere in the middle. The Nuggets were neither a top 10 defense, as their defensive efficiency rating suggests, nor are they a bottom five defense as most observers would suggest.
Most NBA fans believe the Nuggets are in for some video-game-like point totals without
Marcus Camby in the lineup this season, but what those fans do not acknowledge is Camby was a big part of the problem when it was time to man up and play good solid defense. He was physically incapable of guarding most centers in the post, he never challenged the ballhandler coming off screens, and he basically refused to play defense on the perimeter. Now, I have a question for you. What Nugget big man excels at those three areas?
The answer is Nene. (at right)
Most people forget how effective of a defender Nene can be. He has guarded every big man in the NBA from Shaq to Dirk Nowitzki and done it pretty well. I honestly believe the Nuggets can be a better defensive team this year than last year, partly due to the fact that Camby is gone.
How much better do they need to get? Lakers fans know the answer to that question better than anyone. The Nuggets provided about as much resistance as Belgium did in World War II in the face of L.A.'s offensive onslaught in the playoffs last season. The Lakers could have told the Nuggets exactly what they were going to do and the Nuggets still could not have stopped them. The good news is the Nuggets have an athletic team full of players capable of playing good team defense. Nene and Kenyon can cover any front-court duo as well as anyone. Carmelo Anthony is capable of playing solid defense. J.R. Smith has the athleticism and size to make things difficult for any shooting guard in the league. If AI is allowed to defend point guards, he can get the job done. The issue for this team is mental. Either they do not put forth the effort to play good defense ('Melo and AI) or they have no clue how to (J.R. Smith).
I believe the Nuggets will be more sound on defense this season, but not to the extent where they could handle teams like the Lakers, Jazz or Hornets. George Karl has tried to shift the focus to defense in training camp this season, and I believe to a certain extent the players are buying into that focus. Also, acquiring long athletic players like Renaldo Balkman, Chris "Birdman" Andersen and Dahntay Jones have given Karl the option to run some full court pressure and trapping schemes.
So yes, the defense should actually be better this season, but I seriously doubt they will ramp it up to the level it needs to be to finally make it out of the first round of the playoffs.
2)
Will the 'Melo-AI tandem finally work in ways that lead to significant wins?
They pile up points, but don't fit very well together, in my humble
estimation.
I think any hope for the 'Melo-AI duo to put up significant wins, and especially significant playoff wins, has left town. Both players claim that they love playing together and the pairing has opened things up so that scoring is as easy as ever, and there is some good evidence of that in their field goal percentages. Last season 'Melo shot a career high 49.2% and AI posted his highest shooting percentage -- 45.8%, to be exact -- since his second year in the league.
That is all well and good and maybe scoring is easier for both of them, but they have not made much of an impact on the NBA. The primary reason for that is a lack of team play on offense. I have tracked the Nuggets' half-court possessions during a couple of games last season, one of which was game one of the playoffs series against the Lakers, and found that on a majority of their half-court possessions they passed the ball two or fewer times. What is worse is the number of Laker fans strolling around town with Lamar Odom tattoos on their tuckus exceeds the number of possessions the Nuggets pass the
ball four times or more in a game.
'Melo is a major matchup nightmare for most teams, but the Nuggets rarely capitalized on the way 'Melo gets double-teamed in the post because he would make one pass and someone would shoot. Defenses had little problem rotating to cover one pass. Instead of passing and moving without the ball to get the defense out of position, AI would simply drive into the teeth of the defense. If a team passes the ball, players do not hesitate to give the ball up because they now they will get it back. That attitude fosters an environment of team play. Well, the opposite was true with the Nuggets. They knew if they passed the ball they might as well start jogging back on defense because it was about to be chucked toward the rim.
'Melo and AI both played in the All-Star Game and they were the highest scoring pair of teammates in the league, but they were never able to garner significant success together. The proof is in the pudding. The Nuggets are 1-8 in the playoffs while they have played together and they have yet to win a home playoff game during the Iverson era. That's right, the playoffs are like pudding.
I know Marcus Camby has claimed that he feels like he has been disrespected and made to be a scapegoat by the team. I think the Camby trade was actually an indictment of the AI trade. The front office has come to the conclusion that it did not work and it was time to begin a retooling process. With Iverson's contract expiring at the end of the year and the Nuggets possessing some nice young talent, the Nuggets are in position to avoid rebuilding and attempt to retool on the fly. And that brings us to .…
3) Along those lines, what are the chances AI finishes the season in another city?
The Nuggets' offseason moves have all pointed toward the future, whether it was trading their 2008 first-round pick to Charlotte in exchange for a future draft pick or sending Camby to the Clippers for a $10-million trade exception. If the Nuggets' front office was dating the team, they have decided that they are going to break up, but for now have just emotionally withdrawn themselves from the team. They know AI is going to be here for at least most of this season, but he will not be back next season.
If the Nuggets trade Iverson it will be part of a deal to save money. I do not think they will trade him just to trade him. Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement they can actually save a little over $4 million by trading Allen Iverson and bringing back the minimum allowable salary. The question is what team is willing to trade for Allen Iverson and add an additional $4 million in salary as part of the deal?
Because of the difficulty of finding a trading partner who would not only be willing to trade for AI, but also take on additional salary I am starting to believe Iverson will play the remainder of the season in Denver. The Nuggets are still a playoff contender and keeping Iverson around would not be such a horrible thing. The Nuggets were very fortunate that several different circumstances came together that allowed them to dump Camby's contract. I am not sure if the stars will align again for them to pull off a similar trick with Iverson.
4) J.R. Smith was prolific in only 19:11 mpg last season. Does he get more PT this season, and if so, how does that change the way Denver operates on both ends?
J.R. Smith will absolutely get more playing time this season. He took a major step forward last year in several areas. Not only did he play more under control, but he showed he can handle the ball, set up
teammates and actually give a hoot about defense.Smith should play around 28 to 30 minutes a game this season, and if he can crack the 30-
minute-a-game barrier he will put up at least 20 points a game (fantasy sleeper alert!). His development allows the Nuggets to do something important, and that is keep Anthony Carter and Chucky Atkins on the bench. Because both J.R. and AI can handle the ball, they can play in the backcourt together. That makes the Nuggets better on offense and defense. Smith is the best offensive third wheel in the league and he provides Denver with a tremendous shooter and finisher who can give defenses fits. Defensively, he eliminates the problem of playing a pint-sized backcourt. J.R. still has a lot to learn defensively as far as positioning and team principles, but he showed that he was willing to put the effort in to play defense while he is on the court and to tweak something Duke, Lady Jaye and Shipwreck used to tell me: effort is half the battle (well, actually it is more like 78% of the battle).
Look for J.R. to be in contention for both the most improved and sixth-man awards.
5) Where do you see them finishing, record-wise and in the playoff hunt?
I have been one of the few proponents for the Nuggets' chances this season. I foresee Nene remaining healthy, because even though he has missed two-thirds of the Nuggets games over the last three seasons, he is yet to suffer a truly debilitating injury and I like his chances to avoid coming down with cancer two seasons in a row. Also, as I pointed out above, Nene is a far better all around player than Camby. J.R. Smith is going to be better. Linas Kleiza should be an improved player. But the primary reason that I believe the Nuggets will surpass expectations is almost everyone has something to prove.
The whitewashing at the hands of the Lakers was the first time the Nuggets have been bounced from the first round and have not had an excuse. It was obvious to anyone who watched the series that the Lakers were trigonometry and the Nuggets were eighth-grade algebra. In the past they have been able to delude themselves that they were a bounce or two away from winning the series. Last year there was no
way they could fool themselves into believing things just did not go their way.I think you are going to see a more dedicated team this season and a more driven team. 'Melo has something to prove. Nene has something to prove. J.R. Smith has something to prove. Collectively, the team has something to prove. Even George Karl has something to prove. This is still a very talented team and even though they are not going to be contenders, I believe they will surpass expectations.
My prediction for the Nuggets this season is 47 wins and a sixth straight first round postseason exit.
I admire his optimism, but just don't see it. This year, Denver is on the outside looking in.
PROJECTION: Low-to-mid 40s in the win column, outside the top eight. Dangerous to play on individual nights, but over the long haul there's too much talent, not enough team.
Thanks again to Jeremy from www.pickaxeandroll.com for the great in-depth responses.
BK
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKERS…
It struck me as I was watching the Lakers pound the Thunder tonight that we are truly watching this Lakers team grow up right before our eyes. It was a surprising and inspiring to see Kobe start and quickly drain a pair of 3-pointers to get the team off to a fast start. I love how KB24 has opted to focus this year on defense. This team has enough offensive firepower to afford it. As I have been saying all summer, the greatest impact that Kobe can have on this team is to reprise his role as the defensive ace and go-to guy in the clutch as he did for Team USA.
Andrew Bynum was a dominate force at both ends against the hapless Thunder big men, showing again how invaluable he is to this team and the Lakers hopes for a championship, posting 23 points on 67% shooting, 8 boards, 2 dimes, 1 steal, and 3 blocks in 29 minutes. Needless to say, the better Drew plays, the more likely he and the Lakers will reach agreement on a long-term contract extension. I’d say Drew likely helped his cause greatly tonight. I still believe that the Lakers will sign Drew to a long-term contract extension before Oct 31.
This game was also a perfect example of why it makes sense for the Lakers to get the ball into Drew as the team’s #2 option on offense. It is classic championship inside-out basketball. It is also a way of dominating and demonstrating an attitude of toughness that will be a catalyst on offense. Every player wants to score and Drew can dominate most guys who guard him, not to mention shoot a higher percentage than anybody on the team. Same for Pau. Let Kobe focus on defense and closing out games. Feed the ball to Drew and Pau in the post. This Lakers team may end up making more dunks than Phi Jamma Slamma. Blocks and dunks – that will quickly dispense of any rumors or criticism of the Lakers for being a soft or finesse team.
While Derek Fisher played an outstanding game himself, Jordan Farmar again showed that he has taken his game to the next level, posting 14 points on 7-9 shots, 3 boards, 5 assists, and 2 steals, although he definitely needs to cut down on the 7 turnovers. Regardless, Jordan has shown that he will be pressuring Fish for playing time all season long, playing with great confidence and verve. If he can continue to play at this level, he will likely be the starter next year. It was also good to see Sun Yue finally grab a few boards and make a shot.
The most amazing stat for the night, however, is that the Lakers’ point guard trio posted a Quadruple-Double with 27 points, 11 boards, 10 assists, and 10 turnovers in 48 minutes. The Lakers also had 13 players score points, with only Coby Karl wearing the collar. I am guessing the Lakers will keep him on the roster but it really doesn’t matter either way in the end. The Lakers genuinely have 11 players who are, have been, or soon will be starters in the NBA. No other team in the league can come close to that level and quality of depth.
Lamar Odom had another excellent game off the bench with 8 points, 3 boards, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block in 21 minutes. Trevor Ariza threw down an earth shattering dunk and posted 10 points, 8 boards, and 2 assists, though like Farmar he played out of control at times. Luke Walton continued to show he may have his mojo back, posting 9 points on 50% shooting, 2 boards, 3 dimes, and a steal. And Vlade posted a respectable line of 6 points on 50% shooting along with 5 boards, 4 assists, and a steal. These Lakers truly come at you in waves.
The Lakers superior passing was on good display as the team recorded 28 assists on 43 baskets, with 9 different players dishing out dimes, resulting in the Lakers shooting 55% from the field. The best news is that Drew is finally starting to position himself for those easy alley oop dunks that became a staple of his offensive game last year before he was injured. And while Pau had a quiet game, he made some great one-on-one face up moves at power forward and has basically been the Lakers best player in the pre-season.
Defensively, the Lakers held the Thunder to 94 points on 38% shooting. They are playing exactly the type of defense I have been hoping for all summer. Rather than packing it in like the Celtics and Rockets, the Lakers are aggressively pressing and trapping on the perimeter and trusting Andrew, Pau, and our big men to protect the rim and control the boards. The primary reason why I have been advocating this style of defense is that it fits the personality and talent of this team and takes advantage of our height, length, speed, and athleticism. It is aggressive rather than passive and results in turnovers and fast break opportunities on offense.
So far, everything is shaping up as I had hoped. Now all we need is for the Lakers to sign Drew before the 31st and the next dynasty can truly get underway. Bring on the Blazers!
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | October 25, 2008 at 12:00 AM
Mamba24,
Load me back in the roll call please!
Hooray, basketball season is comin' back!
And Troll Man, that song is too funny. I like Lamar, hope we keep him, and believe he'll break out this year, but that song made me laugh.
LakersMR
Posted by: lakersMR | October 25, 2008 at 06:37 AM
Just ordered a pair of tickets for the Nov. 5th home game against the Clips. This will be my first game at Staples. The last Lakers home game I attended was in 1995 at the GW Forum.
I can't wait to finally come home.
Posted by: "Pig" Miller | October 25, 2008 at 08:00 AM
The Lakers looked great last night. Sure, they were playing the Thunder which are basically a pretty good D-League team, but there were plenty of signs of good things to come. I watch Sun Yue do some things that made me cringe, but otherwise I was gasping and awing at the potential of the Lakers and Bynum in particular.
GO LAKERS!
Posted by: Jon K. | October 25, 2008 at 08:41 AM
May God Bless Mamba24 and Laker Nation!
GO LAKERS!
Posted by: Jon K. | October 25, 2008 at 08:46 AM
Lamar =6th man of the year?
How about Farmar = 6th man of the year?
Posted by: dorkis | October 25, 2008 at 08:46 AM
Xodus,
"Kobe wouldn't be coming back by Christmas if he got the surgery in mid-November. He said the recovery would be 12 weeks so he wouldn't be back until February"
~~ You maybe referring to the recommended rehab of doctors for other players not named Kobe. Well, this is like Star Treck series, once the finger is mended and could move, the MVP is ready to go. As you can see right now the ligament is torn and he could play, what more if it is connected. Xodus, try to consider the possibility outside the box like when we were analyzing the medical condition of Drew. (just kiddin').
BTW, you also commented that Mbenga played a poor game after accummulating four fouls within 5 minutes. That's great. You did not consider the 'fear factor' why the Thunder (OMG, I'm not use calling a team thunder, this like comics character during our time,) stopped dunking in their post guarded by DJ. We need a hit man among this 15 guys. Like when you entering in a bank nowadays, you see a security man watching the front door and customers, eventhough there is no more enough money to guard lol! Lakers need this martial arts artist sweep them for good whether their names are: Amare, Aldridge, Duncan, Nowitsky, Lebron, Wade, KG. Do you think Mihm or Gasol can handle the dirty job? No way, they are the finesse and Mbenga is the rough and tumble weed. Go Lakers all the way.
Posted by: Edwin Gueco | October 25, 2008 at 09:26 AM
Edwin,
>>>>>Like when you entering in a bank nowadays, you see a security man
>>>>>watching the front door and customers, even though there is no more
>>>>>enough money to guard lol!
LMAO, Edwin. But I do think you are right about DJ being the enforcer. He definitely has a nasty and mean streak. The only question is how long will he last. LOL.
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | October 25, 2008 at 11:06 AM