perfect timing on Luke and the bum ankle of his -- tryna not get that ass shipped out!

Caliphilosopher,

I'm going to have to also disagree with you about Luke Walton's physical problems. I don't really wish to align myself with Blue and Gold Reign. He's a jerk that you obviously just annoyed. His atittude sucks and there was really no reason for him to respond to you in such a nasty manner.

That said, he's right about a few things.

You express the familiar freshman college adage, "correlation does not equal causation." That's obviously true.

However, there is a known causal chain with people in genetics. Not all individual traits are genetic, buy many are, particularly those related to physical health. Environment can also play a factor, including the environment in the womb.

Given that it's known in the medical community that people of African descent (a larger and more diverse gene pool) have greater frequencies of tendon and ligament damage, I think it's probably fair to assume joint issues have a genetic component in the case of the Waltons (a smaller and less diverse, i.e., more similar gene pool).

I've worked in molecular genetics and know some medicine, but I don't have the background to say for sure that Luke inherited his father's health issues. Maybe when they identify the appropriate alleles, test the Waltons and figure out the appropriate gene expression (and can test for it) we'll know for sure. We may even need to figure out multiple genes controlling the trait. I think medical authorities are a lot more focused on life-threatening diseases and chronic serious conditions that have potential drug targets. Soft connective tissue injuries are probably a lower priority.

Based on what I do know, it seems rather likely that papa Bill passed on poor genes to Luke. Pro basketball puts a strain on the body that others don't experience. Some people appear to be made for strenuous physical activity more than others. Willpower and preventative training certainly seems to help.

Okay, so as promised I've gone over all teams in the league to try
to cook up the most likely possibilities to answer the question WWSG?
(Where would Sasha Go?)

I'm making some assumptions here, so let's start with those:

1. If a team offers Sasha a contract starting at 3.5 million per or less,
then the Lakers will match it. I think that's a pretty safe bet. I'm
not as confident they'd match for 4 or 5 million, but if a team offered
him a contract starting at 3.5, I think they'd fork that over to keep
The Machine.

2. If a team already has a SG or SF that shoots a high % on 3-pointers,
then they're probably not going to offer MLE level bucks to Sasha. If you've
already got Kapono or Booby Gibson, then Vujacic isn't needed as badly.

3. If a team is in the luxury tax or just about to go in, then they're not
likely to out-spend the Lakers to get Sasha. If the Lakers aren't willing
to pay Sasha a full MLE, then why would Cleveland (for example) ?

So let's break down the teams by how likely they are to try to acquire Sasha.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I. Don't have enough money to make a legit offer to Sasha

Dallas - spent their full MLE on DeSagana Diop
Miami - spent 4 million of their MLE on James Jones
New Jersey - spent 3 million of their MLE on Eduardo Najera
New York - spent their MLE on Chris Duhon
Orlando - spent their MLE on Mickael Pietrus
San Antonio - spent 4 million of their MLE on Roger Mason

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

II. Not very likely to make an offer to Sasha:

Atlanta - most of their cap space will go to re-signing their own free
agents. The team is still involved in a lawsuit that makes adding almost
any player difficult, so I can't see them laying out enough bucks to lure
Sasha away from the Lakers.

Charlotte - already has Matt Carroll (43%) and Jason Richardson (41%) shooting
3's, plus they have Ray Felton and DJ Augustin who should take up most of the
minutes at PG. They're fairly cheap and they have a greater need for quality
frontcourt players, so if they do spend, it will probably be on a big.

Chicago - Two of their own free agents to sign (Deng & Gordon). Plus they
have Hinrich and Hughes and Sefolosha and Derrick Rose, so the rumor is that
they're looking to get rid of guards, not add more. What they need most is
a post scorer, and Sasha ain't that.

Cleveland - currently deeper in luxury tax than the Lakers. Plus they have
Damon Jones under contract and will probably re-sign Boobie Gibson, so they're
pretty well set for 3-point shooting. If they spend part or all of the MLE,
it'll probably be for a veteran playmaking PG.

Denver - If they lose JR Smith to some other team, then they might look
to replace him with Sasha. But I could see them matching whatever offer
Smith gets rather than making an offer to Sasha and taking the chance that
the Lakers would match.

Detroit - They've got a solid rotation including some very good 3 point
shooters and they're way under the luxury tax. Why spend more for a
redundant player.

Houston - They just signed Brent Barry, re-signing Carl Landry will put
them near the luxury tax, and their draft pick Donte Green also seems to
be able to shoot 3's. There's a slight chance they would make an offer
to Sasha, but I can't see them offering him more than the Lakers would
match.

Indiana - They're over the cap and they have 5 good 3-point shooters under
contract for next season. If they spend MLE money, it won't be on Sasha.

The Clippers - They might have the money available, but they also have
Eric Gordon (who looks to be better than Sasha) and Cuttino Mobley (quality
veteran starter). And more importantly, they're desperate for a power
forward now that Elton Brand is gone. I suspect they'll spend most (if
not all) of their cap space getting a starting PF.

Milwaukee - They're near the luxury tax and they already have some decent
outside shooters.

Minnesota - They have a glut of combo guards and small forwards - Mike
Miller, Randy Foye, Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Rodney Carney - I think
they'll spend what it takes to re-sign some of their own free agents
(Craig Smith, Ryan Gomes) and stop there.

Phoenix - They're already in the luxury tax and Nash, Bell, and Barbosa
are decent 3-point shooters. If they spend, it would more likely be
on a big.

Portland - They're in luxury tax, but they seem to be willing to spend
a lot to build the right team. They've already got 14 players under
contract, and 2 other rookies (Nicholas Batum & Petteri Koponen) that
they hae in Summer League that are probably duking it out for the
15th spot. But there is a chance that they could buy LaFrentz out
or pull some 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade, in which case I could see
a chance of them making an offer for a good shooter like Sasha.

Sacramento - They're WAY into luxury tax and seem to be looking to dump
off one or two of those big salaries. Also, I'm not sure if the MLE
level money they gave to Udrih actually was their MLE or if they had
early Bird rights on him. Anyway, as deep as they are in luxury tax,
I can't see them paying double for Sasha.

Toronto - in the luxury tax, and still have to re-sign Carlos Delfino.
And they have a ton of good 3-point shooters.

Utah - What they need most is more size. They have a lot of young
shooters - none quite as good as Sasha, but with potential to get
there. My guess is that if they spend their MLE, it will be on a
big man, and they'll count on the fact that Korver will be back to
his old self next year and that Deron Williams and CJ Miles and
Morris Almond will manage to provide some 3-point shooting as well.

Washington - They're bordering on the luxury tax, but one of their
best 3-point shooters, Roger Mason, got snatched by San Antonio. If
they decide that 3-point shooting is what they need to get them out
of the first round in the East, they may look for a 3-point shooter,
but I can't imagine them going into the luxury tax for at least the
next two seasons just for that.

----------------------------------------------------------------

III. Teams most likely to make a pitch to Sasha:

Boston - If they lose Posey, they might make a similar offer to Sasha. He
shoots better than Posey, and plays decent defense. But they need to add
several players to their roster, so I think they're more likely to split
their MLE between a couple of players (House? PJ Brown? a backup PG?)
If they get Posey back, they won't be able to make a big enough offer to
get Sasha

Golden State - Right at the moment, they don't have enough cap space to make
a big enough offer to Sasha - between qualifying offers to Biedrins and Ellis
and the offer signed by Maggette and the offer signed by Turiaf. There are
a couple of things that could free up some cap space -- if the Lakers match
for Ronny, then GS could make a comparable offer to Sasha. Or if some other
team poaches Biedrins or Ellis away, then that would also free up some cap
space. But if Biedrins and Ellis sign and the Lakers don't match for Ronny,
then GS won't have enough cash to lure Sasha away.

Memphis - yeah, I know they have a glut of guards, but of last season's
3-point shooters, their best (Mike Miller) second best (Tarence Kinsey)
third best (Damon Stoudamire) and fourth best (Juan Carlos Navarro) are gone.
They've got a ton of cap space, so unless they believe OJ Mayo can do all
the damage they need from 3-point land, it wouldn't surprise me to see them
offer a contract to a good shooter.

New Olreans - Their weakest position is shooting guard. Sasha has the
potential to be better than Mo Peterson, and he could also back up Peja
a bit at the 3.

Oklahoma City - This one's a tough call. They were one of the worst
3-point shooting teams in the league last year and 3 of their four best
3-point shooters are gone. But OTOH, with all the expenses of the move
to Oklahoma City, I could see the team going cheap and not adding any
more players this summer. If they do add a player, though, an outside
shooter would be a good bet.

Philadelphia - They're in a similar situation to Golden State, in that
most of their cap space may evaporate in re-signing Igoudala. But they
were a lousy 3-point shooting team last season, and one of their best
shooters (Kyle Korver) got traded away. So if they have enough left after
re-signing Igoudala and Louis Williams to make an offer to Sasha, it
wouldn't shock me if they did.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

So there you have it. Note that some of these teams situations could change.
For example, a team that's currently in the luxury tax could trade a player
to the Clippers or Memphis that gets them far enough out of luxury tax that
they could make a good offer to Sasha and still stay out of the luxury tax.
But barring any unusual move like tht, I think the six teams in the last list
are by far the most likely teams (other than the Lakers) to make an offer
to Sasha.

Dit Da Jon,

Howdy man? I would only take Artest if we keep LO. For some reason, due to Bynum (with the possibility) coming off the bench, LO coming off the bench or a lineup switch I would love to keep LO with this healthy team. If nothing happens there, then trade him

Though Benny Blanca's proposal suit's a lot better with Haslem included.

I still say let them Kings ferment in the Artest rant and get desperate. He wants out. One year of Ron won't hurt us. Especially if the Mitch can pull another Gasol type deal = Ariza, Mihm, Cash and AC Green's rights plus a 2056 draft pick.

Take Care

LTLF great concise list. Props.

But out of all them I think the team we're more likely to vie for Sasha is Utah. I read from the Salt Lake Tribune awhile back that they have some sort of LA Fever...they apparently were going after Ronny, and DGeorge lol.

I think Sasha re-signs back with the lakers...the question is how much. While I love Sasha and would give anything to have him back in purple and gold, I also know about the business aspect of the game.

GO Lakers!

Purple and Gold Reign,

"You know Mr. Caliphilosopher (amusingly pompous handle btw), even IF you were a doctor specializing in precisely this field, it can be argued that medicine and the healing 'arts' are exactly that: more art than science. It has been stated that somewhere around 90% of ALL diseases and illnesses are either self-limiting or incurable. The practice of medicine operates (pun not intended) in the roughly 10% that remains.

Would you deign to argue this point too?

As for the issue of surgery, haven't you heard the famoux oxymoron, "minor surgery?" Any process that involves cutting into a person's body is NEVER a procedure to be taken lightly or casually. Complications can and do occur, since the healing process (and timeframe) is dependant upon numerous factors, including the patient's underlying physiological condition."

You can argue that medicine is more art than science, but it's probably not in Western medicine. It certainly combines in decent quantities aspects of both disciplines. Think about every chemotherapeutic (drugs), every surgery, diagnostic testing, treatment recommendations... It's all based (ideally) on the scientific method (which people may screw up, but the method appears to be very effective at predicting future events--better than anything before it). Yes, you need an artist of sorts in a doctor who can apply this vast body of knowledge to fit an individual's needs and wants, but the vast majority of what's done is based on science. Even though chemotherapeutics (not to be confused with chemotherapy which are just any external chemical used for treatment) don't always have known mechanisms of action and double-blind placebo controlled studies demonstrating their efficacy, we always have information about the drug's effects and chemical structure, if not at least partial information about its interaction with the body.

Even if 90 percent of diseases were incurable or self-limiting (where'd you get the stat, btw), you can still do something with them. There are palliative treatments that treat symptoms. You may also engage in treatment more likely to improve survival or prevent permanent damage. Comfort and appearance do have real impacts on human quality of life. Asthma may be incurable, but Western medicine does a nice job of controlling symptoms and physical damage caused by the disease which can be life-threatening, but most patients don't die from it. Hell, even Kaiser has a good record treating asthma.

Surgery comes in many flavors these days. It's not as if by merely opening the body there's a 1 percent chance of the body exploding. Because surgery has changed from a long recovery period due to scalpel incisions to many shorter recoveries due to laparoscope advancements, I think you're just being a fundamentalist about the term and idea of surgery if you can't call some of them minor.

Yes, people fixate on terms to make themselves feel better. Yes, corporate management of NBA teams tries to downplay the seriousness of some injuries. That said, bone spur removal is not microfracture surgery.

The term "underlying physical condition" is so vague as to be almost meaningless. Let's say genetics influence healing times as well as exercise and diet.

I think you were a little unnecessarily hard on Caliphilosopher. He doesn't present himself as a medical authority even if he speaks in a way that may sound a little authoritative on the subject.

Long Time Laker Fan

Man, that was thorough. Do you work part-time for the CIA doing analysis? lol

To add to Phoenix, since I live out this way, I get to read all the papers.

Kerr has made a decision that they will try to fill all the needs with only the Vet Min. He loves the part that the league pays part of the salary. His own words.

He's stated the Suns needs are 1. a back up to Nash, (Tye Lue they hope) 2. A back up to Grant, a shooter (they lost Gordon Girecek) 3. A power forward (they keep talking about Skinner)

Unless Sasha wants to play for the Mini, he won't be coming the Suns way.

MY BOY PLAYED WITH ONE GOOD ANKLE ALL YEAR.......AND STILL GOT THIS TEAM TO THE FINALS..............MUCH LIKE KARL MALONE ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Charles -

No offense taken whatsoever. Fist pound reciprocated.

LTLF -

That, my friend, is a fantastic post. Well researched, to-the-point summaries. I think Philly could make a strong play personally. Ironically, they had to give up their best shooter (Korver) to be in the good financial position they are now. But now they need a shooter like nobody's business, otherwise Brand is going to be swarmed at every turn.

Benjamin -

Luke's race may play a part, but I think it has more to do with the hustle/attitude/underdog part of it. Fans love that no matter the race. Madsen, Coby Carl, Penberthy (remember him!?) were all white, but I'd say they were Laker favorites because they were either hard workers, underdogs or both. David Lee is loved by NYers because he's a blue collar guy. I think this holds true no matter the race. For example, Laker fans are quick to gloss over Turiaf's shortcomings because he's a great guy, a tough guy and a hard worker. On occasion, you'll hear somone complain about how he can't finish around the rim or how he passes it when he's wide open under the basket, but more often you hear about how they love his energy and attitude. Grant Hill was paid millions and millions by the Magic for doing nothing, but fans cut him some slack because he worked hard in rehab, is a really good guy and kept doing his best to bounce back. So basically, while race MIGHT play a part, I think people are more apt to stick up for Luke because he's obviously trying and working hard.

So reading the latest hoopsworld thing on Artest I wonder
whether it's true that Odom is on the table for Artest or not.
No source from the Lakers or Kings has confirmed either way.

Maybe Mitch called asking for a trade something like what
AK suggested (Farmar+Ariza+Mihm for Artest) and Petrie
countered with Odom for Artest+Thomas and floated that version
to the press.

I've got to say that since Odom is good friends with Artest,
it would be much better to keep Odom and get Artest. The
only thing I worry about in that scenario is losing Farmar.
He was the spark plug of the bench mob last season and
really pushed the tempo well.

And it's not like there are a plethora of good PG's available. If the Lakers did a Farmar-Ariza-Mihm for Artest
trade, here's what's available in the backup PG market:

Anthony Carter
Jason Williams
Keyon Dooling
Royal Ivey
Carlos Arroyo
Shaun Livingston
Sebastian Telfair
Sam Cassell
Smush "Bill" Parker
Dan Dickau
Chris Quinn
Tyronn Lue

Benjamin

I think you hit the nail on the head. Injuries have hurt Lukes confidence. Even after you have healed, you are unsure what your body can do. In Lukes case it doesnt appear that he ever fully recovered and either has his confidence. A lot of people complain about his 5 mil per but that was the level he was playing at before the injuries began to mount up. I hope this surgery does the trick because he can be a valuable bench guy when healthy and confident.

MH

Benjamin,

Do you know much about the P53 gene?

GO LAKERS!

A bit late to the favorite-philosopher party, but what about Malthus?

I know, technically an enconomist, or branded as such ad posteri once economics was formally "invented" as a discipline.

But the dude was spot-on, bob's-your-uncle, willy-waggin' correct when he postulated his theory of populations - but with a catch. We got to give the man a break, because people in his day had just caught on to burning coal on a large scale. But if you substitue the word "energy" (ie crude oil) for the word "food" in his treatise, the concept of arithmatic accumulation of resources being chronically out-paced by the logarithmic accumulation of people is nothing short of...

CORRECT!

Go Lakers!

Respectfully,
HIGHEST CHEESE (so far...)

Benjamin,

>>>>>I've worked in molecular genetics and know some medicine,
>>>>>but I don't have the background to say for sure that
>>>>>Luke inherited his father's health issues.

I actually have a useless degree in Molecular Biology from UC Riverside and would have to say that the chances are good that part of Luke’s problem could have been inherited from his dad but there is really no way to know for sure. That’s what happens when you spend too many years in school. LOL.

Tom

GET TOUGH…AS IN FIGHT CLUB?

Beyond the rhetoric and hyperbole, what we really mean when we say we want players who are tough is that we want players who are physically willing to get into a real fight. That’s why we keep hearing about Rick Fox chasing Doug Christie or Kevin McHale clothes lining Kurt Rambis or Ron Artest punching out a fan as examples of toughness. In the NBA, toughness really means that you’re able and willing to throw some punches. And that gives a big edge to players who grew up and had experience with fighting. Vai Sikahema’s pounding of Jose Canseco was a perfect example of that.

This is where the black athlete in general has a big advantage over his white counterpart. I played rec and pickup basketball for 30 years in and around LA and NY and the type of game that is played in the inner city is a totally different game from that played in the suburbs, a game where fists can easily fly over a stupid foul or comment and unless you were ready to duke it out and hold your ground, you were dead meat. I’ve seen guys draw knives and guns right on the court and had guys decide to knock me flat on my butt every single time I took a shot to try and make me quit because they couldn’t guard me.

That’s not to say that street ball groomed players are all tough or that their sheltered suburban counterparts are all soft. What it really comes down to is whether or not you’ve been in fights and know what to expect. I grew up as a skinny half-Chinese kid that went to 7 different schools in the heart of the Midwest over a 3-year period and ended up learning how to fight by getting my butt kicked over and over. I had to make a choice to be Bruce Lee or Hop Sing. But I learned how to fight and to throw the first punch.

My son, on the other hand, never had a fight until he was out of high school. Needless to say, the result was not pretty when he finally ended up in a fight with a guy who know what was happening and beat the crap out of him. That’s the problem that a lot of the NBA players, especially the white guys and even the black guys who lived in suburbia. They have never been in a real fist fight and just don’t know what to do or expect, like when KG punked Pau and dunked over him flat on his back on the floor. I doubt that Pau has ever been in an actual fist fight in his life – and it showed in how he responded.

Being a member of the Fight Club, however, is not the only way to show toughness. Even if you’re not a trained fighter, you can have the will and courage to stand up against physical bullying without resorting to punching out your opponent. We all remember how Drew responded to Shaq punking him when he was a rookie just as KG punked Pau. It was an enlightening moment that instantly convinced me that Drew was destined for greatness. It is also why I believe the Lakers would have beaten Boston with him. Like Pau, I doubt Drew has even been in an actual fist fight in his life. Still, his sense of pride and honor gave him the initiative and motivation to go right back at Shaq.

Bottom line, there are always more than one way to skin a cat, play great defense, or win a championship. As important as getting a stopper to put on Paul Pierce in the Finals, Andrew’s return at center may be all the toughness that the Lakers really need in order to stop Pierce and the Celtics. Toughness, like many positive human traits, can be nurtured and groomed to grow in most players, even if they weren’t a fighter in their youth. Still, it helps to be able to walk the walk after talking it. It’s a boon to your self-confidence.

Tom

Lakers management will do what is best for the team in regards to any moves they make or don't make. The major thing with LO is "consistency" or the lack thereof. What the Lakers are weighing is how a lineup of Bynum, Gasol and Odom will work considering how far the Lakers went without Bynum. While LO's inconsistencies can be maddening, the Lakers are in a dilemma as to give it another shot with a full, healthy roster or tinker with the lineup to insert some "toughness" and defensive consistency. It's really a tougher decision than many think it is. It's hard to go wrong either way. Go Lakers and Laker family!!!!

Highest Cheese -

I don't know much about philosophy of economics (which would seem to include Malthus, since you said he needed to be 'invited' into academia). Got any starters kits on that dude?

Lakers were ready for Artest as pick up. Unfortunately, this crackhead made three distinct questionable moves:

1. He didn't avail the opt out clause making him an outright MLE or go for a three year contract starting at 8M.

2. He changed his name to Bill

3. He appointed himself as the Agent

Lakers love his defense and desire to belong with the team but not in this manner, there seems to be something abnormal with those abrupt change of character to suit his interest, so they pulled out their cards back & just stay and run out w/ LO's contract till February '09 or go for it if he becomes an important player. Beside Artest is a player that can save cap space and not increase more with inclusion of Kenny Thomas.

Is there any news about the health of Garbajosa? Is he going to play with Team Spain in the Olympics?

Lakers should continue developing young players in the Summer League and make them D' League or Europe bound: Jefferson, Mata-Real and Crawford. Someday, they will be good role players for aging Lakers. JR Pinnock is doing great now in Greece.

Artest may be out, Posey is no longer available, Kurt Thomas is old, who is next PF on the hunt with defensive minded mentality?

LakerTom,

Cal for me. Degree in Molecular and Cell Bio with an emphasis in neurobiology. You're like an older brother, except you're probably too old, :P

With Luke's impression race is certainly not the only factor, but I think it's one worth considering.

The media is nicer to him than seems appropriate to me, especially all the high basketball IQ stuff. Being Walton's son may help that in two ways. One, the broadcasters may not want to be mean to a fellow broadcaster's son. Two, the assumption that Luke would have picked up something about basketball growing up with Bill Walton as a dad makes a lot of sense.

Luke handles himself pretty well on camera too. That certainly doesn't hurt.

Edwin,
"one for the favorites white knight in shinning armor and the other for snowboarding foreigners good only as a space cadet. "

You don't see a difference in the attitudes of Vlad and Luke?

Benjamin -

I was wondering why Campbell's Biology sounded so familiar - cause I'm a fellow Golden Bear!

As a matter of fact, I did a bunch of my studying in VLSB when I was at Cal; it was much better than Barrows.

This blog is effin' awesome - so much knowledge and well articulated thoughts! (I'm as enthusiastic as I am because Lubbock is pretty anti-intellectual; I have no clue as to how the introductory logic class that I'm going to T.A. will go...)

Jon K

sorry for butting in but p53 is a protein that regulates the expression of a wide variety genes including those involved in regulating the cell cycle, muscle development, and glucose uptake. It's also what is known as a tumor suppressor, that is mutations (defects) in p53 can lead to unregulated cell growth.

Nemaia Faletogo wrote:

“Lakers management will do what is best for the team in regards to any moves they make or don't make. The major thing with LO is "consistency" or the lack thereof. What the Lakers are weighing is how a lineup of Bynum, Gasol and Odom will work considering how far the Lakers went without Bynum. While LO's inconsistencies can be maddening, the Lakers are in a dilemma as to give it another shot with a full, healthy roster or tinker with the lineup to insert some "toughness" and defensive consistency. It's really a tougher decision than many think it is. It's hard to go wrong either way. Go Lakers and Laker family!!!!”

I agree;

And therein lay the crux of the problem before Lakers’ management. They don’t really have a fully tested product yet, since they haven’t seen Andrew Bynum added to the mix. Or a healthy Ariza with it.

And because the starting center is such a significant player, if not the most important piece, Bynum changes the entire landscape of the team and player rotation.

Therefore, the poor showing in the Boston series is not necessarily indicative of the need for personnel changes. It may be, but not necessarily so.

However, while the addition of veteran help is always a plus. If it can be done at a reasonable cost. Even if they don’t, the Lakers still may already have a championship contender right now barring injuries. There’s just no way to know for sure until we can see the entire team together (with Sasha and a replacment for Turiaf) next season.

Camby to the Clippers: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3491156

That's about as close to a giveaway as we'll ever see, I think. A second round pick? Seriously? Come on!