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I've got thoughts! I've got forecasts! I've got predictions!

June 5, 2008 | 12:15 pm

Crystal_ballYes, that is me, in a photo taken shortly after my arrival in Boston.  (You should see how the TSA folks react to a crystal ball!) This what a playoff run does to the media.  Anyway...

After an unnecessarily long, only-in-the-NBA layoff between the conference finals and Thursday night's Game 1, it's finally time to play some basketball.

Like a lot of people, I think there's no question that the Lakers have been the more impressive of the two Finals teams through the postseason, beating three teams that won 50-plus games, including the defending champs in five.  But while the Celtics were flat against Atlanta and disappointed against Cleveland, they bounced back to beat a good Detroit squad, including two wins in Motown, and are such a good defensive team that they have the ability to beat anyone. 

Really, it should be fun.  So with that, the thoughts, forecasts, and predictions promised in the post's title:

  • I'm not a guy who likes to go position by position to decide which team has the advantage.  Is Paul Pierce a better player than Vlad Rad at small forward?  Well, yeah. What's your point?  What matters is how each team operates, since individual matchups are often fluid throughout a game and a series.  While the Celtics are indeed an outstanding defensive team, the Lakers are by far the best offensive team Boston will have faced this postseason, can score on the run and in the half court, and against the Spurs the Lakers proved they don't have to drop 115 points a night to win.  The big question for me isn't really how much the Lakers will score against Boston, but whether or not the Celtics will find enough offense to be productive against L.A. 

Lost in much of the talk about the Big Green Wall Boston puts in front of its hoop is the reality that the Lakers, despite how much people like to complain about it, are actually a solid defensive team, too.  Just ask the Spurs, who went huge stretches without being able to generate enough offense to take advantage of openings presented to them. Throughout the postseason, when the Lakers have needed stops, they've found them, and have had long stretches where they shut teams down. 

In short, the gap between each team's D isn't as big as the one between their respective offenses.  Advantage Lakers. 

  • Celtics fans are already wondering how Doc Rivers is planning on screwing up the Finals.  I wonder if the players have the same level of faith in him that the Lakers do in Phil Jackson. 
  • If Ray Allen continues to find his groove, the Lakers could have some problems.  For all the talk of Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo, who both could undoubtedly have a huge impact on the series (though as dynamic as Rondo can be, is he better than A.I., Deron Williams or Tony Parker?), if Allen is on he truly gives Boston a Big Three, and makes it much, much more difficult to guard Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.  You may have received the memo that those guys are pretty good. 
  • KG has made his living in the playoffs with a midrange game.  If he stays there, he's doing the Lakers a favor.  Should he be able to make hay in the post, though, it'll be a problem for L.A.  Conversely, if the Lakers are able to work from the inside out, I don't care how stout the Celtics are defensively, the Lakers will score.  Along those lines, it might help Boston to get that good work inside if Doc unshackled Leon Powe and Glen Davis from the bench. 
  • Pau's point production is less important than his point prevention.  The slack always seems to get picked up somewhere offensively. 
  • The Celtics are one of the few teams with enough horses to try to play Kobe straight and hope to shut down the supporting cast, but I wonder if they will.  The temptation to try to get the ball out of his hands is incredibly strong once games start, but as I've written in the past, the minute teams overplay Kobe, they're doing the Lakers a favor. 
  • When it comes down to it, the Lakers have the best player on the floor (Kobe), the better coach (PJ), similar balance up and down the roster.  They've beaten a running team, a physical team and a championship team, showing along the way they can win in a variety of styles.  To make a long story short, right now they're the better team.  Not by a ton, but by enough.  Lakers in six.

BK


The comments to this entry are closed.

Comments

Man.. you mean to tell me I RUSH to a local library here in Mobile,Alabama ( ughh yes it sucks, yes its work related and yes I HATE LIFE right about now lol) to get my KamBros,Lakerville fix only to discover those pathetic Boston fans are all over our blog? I just threw up a lil in my mouth. I'm not sure whats worse, these backward ass yee haws here in Bama or Boston fans? Toss up.. Anyways, Get Better soon Brova Charles, sorry to hear you're under the weather, Keep holding down the Bynum bandwagon Laker Tom, I added his highlight vid to my page. Justa and Milo... gotta represent for me tonight!!! I wont have access to my "cave" but hopefully this godforsaken place gets ABC television so I'll be with you guys in spirit... No, I wont drink Moonshine but my gut feeling tells me if we're gonna steal a game in Boston, tonight is as good a time as any so I'm picking a Laker victory tonight !!!!! HERE WE GO GANG !!!!!

P.S If any of you get any bright ideas about visiting Alabama... DONT trust me, it feels like I'm in the Twilight Zone.. case in point, I've been called an "intelligent negro" and they call Soda.. Pop here and if its Cherry or Strawberry flavored.. they call it... wait for it.... RED POP !!!!! LMAOOOOOOOOO Friday wont get here soon enough for me !!!!

GO LAKERS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mamba -- I hope you're right about the blowout tonight.

Fire32 -- Kobe and fish will need to carry the team emotionally these first two games. Kobe will be aggressive and try to put the Cs over the limit early.

Who the hell is Tony Allen? and why is he talking about guarding Kobe? God I hope he does-- hahahaha

Why is Pierce's nickname the Truth? In what alternate universe does someone that has won squat get that nickname -- ridiculous. The truth my ass.

So for those people that were interested in a viewing party tonight, not enough serious responses- nobody wants to party with me *tear*

Party has been cancelled- so sad- but hey there is time before sundays slaughter- who wants to go to a bar and have a few drinks and watch the Lakers kick some green??

I am the social director and I demand production from my fellow fans- lets light the torches, dust off the picthforks, and root for the Purple and Gold

Who's with me???????

giantsquid -- McCain still thinks the New Orleans Jazz are around. hahaha -- yeah -- cheap shot, I know.

Laker fans, I hope you are all here tom morning so that when I get up and the Celts have beat you in game one you will start to see this is not going to be a cakewalk for your team!

I would expect you to rattle the cage if you win game one, but I hope you know I intend on being here tom morn if the Celts win or loose and I will take mine like a man and read every comment you have, will you???

Celts 96 Lakers 84 Game One Final!

McCain's pick

Apparently, John McCain doesn't think either team has enough experience in the finals to with the championship.

" I wonder if McCain's made a pick yet? "

Yeah, he still thinks Bob Cousy is playing.

What's up Lakerville!

Time for win #13. Time to push pretenders aside.
* I predict our boys crashing the boards
* I predict the Lakeshow getting out on the break
* I predict the Lakeshow leading by double digits in 1st Qtr
* I predict KG to be so over-hyped that he will be an emotionaly wreck at the end of the game
- added bonus: I predict Sasha or Vlade in KG's face
ala Zaza Pachulia LOL!

Go Lakers!

Let's leave the talk of true greats for LEADERS such as SHACK, D-Wade, and GNASH.

Posted by: BUTLER | June 05, 2008 at 01:17 PM

Cue the laugh track!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

I love the Celtics

Bad this was a bad year to return to the finals.

These Lakers are one of the most powerful and hottest teams to ever make it to the finals. Worse, Kobe is, IMO, a scarier prospect than Jordan to face. He's probably, I hate to say it, the greatest offensive threat in the history of the game.

I wish it were otherwise, but I expect the Celtics to be swept pretty easily. We struggled vs. Atlanta...how can we hang in vs. LA?

Charles & Zen: nighty night - the bed bugs are biting him.


GO LAKERS!

From the Wall Street Journal article previously posted by Laker Legacy:

"but the Celtic who really made my blood boil was Danny Ainge. A whiny, wildly annoying shooting guard with a choirboy face, he constantly complained to the refs -- and had a penchant for making clutch three-pointers"

Remind you of anyone?

Butler,

I notice your list of "true leaders" doesn't include ANY Celtics. Interesting...

Regardless of who our leader is or what you think of our players, we're still going to stomp all over your rented team this Finals. Then we're going to take your mama out on a date, and show her a good time. Deal with it.

Before I log off and hurry back to my hotel room.. I did learn something pretty cool this week being in the land of the lost.. There IS a difference between Cream of Wheat and Grits!!! Even in 2008 people wear black dress socks with shorts and sandals and last but definately not least.. in the south, they have mosquitoes the size of Cats !!!! omg ok let me get out of here.. I have a local smiling at me and I counted 8 missing teeth at a glance..... TAXI... TAXI !!!!!

BK: nice pre-Finals assessment.
What the heck do all you media guys do for the next 4 hours? This is torture!

GO LAKERS!

BUTLER = Sam Cassell

No-one else's mouth is that big and that full of trash.


This series isn't going to be as great as people are hyping it to be. The Lakers are simply the superior team. These Celtics were hot early on, but their age and fear are showing. KG's hands were literally shaking at the end of the last game they lost in Atlanta against a team that they should have swept. Being taken to game 7 twice by teams that wouldn't even have made the Western Conference playoffs?

The Lakers were easy to guard in the last games, when Kobe was shooting alone out there, or even when big Drew was still getting his feet wet and frustrated by Perkins. That was before Odom found his game and before we picked up the Great Angle (Pau, the perfect triangle anchor).

Lakers in 5. Average win by 8.

Simi LG,

I wouldn't mind going for one of the games next week...I'm not one of the lucky ones who has NBA finals tickets!!

BUTLER - forget the lakers.... join to your phoenix team' s vacation... bwa hahahahaha

i need a take from COMPTON'S FINEST right about now...

BUTLER is simply trying to validate WHY he hates kobe...and he has run out of excuses. it's okay to hate somebody just because you hate them. butler, we get it - you hate kobe...now go dust off your d wade posters...i'm sorry - WHO?

lakers in six, been saying it since the celtics clinched...good to know BK is thinking the same.

Charles & Mamba24 - i hope you both enjoy the game tonight...thanks for all of the positive laker vibes these past couple of months...

where's Zakee? i wouldn't mind a Smush Parker Sucks post for old time's sake...

here's to a laker victory tonight...

c'mon lake show!!!

Simi Laker Girl -

Set up a blog game viewing party on meetup.com and the bloggers will follow!

Butler,
As I was once told you should never argue with an idiot because they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience every time. So I won't argue with you. Kobe is obviously just a second banana, and only capable of playing with a number one guy like Shaq. Never mind the fact that no single player has ever once won a Championship. I bow to your greatness, insight, stunning analysis - I can only guess that you gained much of that insight by watching Steve Nash, probably the greatest player of our time, win all his championships. My hats off to the Phoenix Suns, Steve Nash and the Championship Dynasty of All Time! I hope that all those former NBA players, current and past executives, analysts and experts will come to see the error of their way when they proclaim Kobe is one of the greatest players of all time and that this year his leadership and decision making have been approaching Michael Jordan levels. Clearly he is not in the class of MJ, and I doubt he could even make it to Pippens level. All hail to Steve Nash - the Champion of Champions.

Hmmm....something just isn't right. Oh damned I forgot, I was so enthralled with you insightful analysis that Nash has never won an NBA title. I know I know, like Shaq before he won with the Lakers, he has won on every level except college and the pros! He must have led Canada to an Olympic or World Championship right? No. Darn I thought I had something. Maybe he won something in high-school?

I must ask - If the Lakers do win who is Kobe second banana to this time?

Peace
Eagleboy

Three and a half hours AHHHH, everyone on Around the Horn picked the Lakers except for Calishaw. I think the world is picking the Lakers. We might not win tonight but if we do its over and the jello's jiggglin. Anyways, I think Lamar and Farmar are going to be fun to watch. Both have had ups and downs this postseason and I'm curious how those players will respond to such a big stage. I think Farmar enjoys the spotlight and the pressure just a little more (from his personality and the fact that hes been to the Final Four). I still think Lamar will have a great series with only one sub par game (either tonight or tomorrow). He's just gotta keep going coast to coast and keeping the defense on their heels.

Lamar = Finals MVP

GO LAKERS

I see the Celtics hittin' the court on fire tonight. They will launch their absolute best shot at the Lakers in the first quarter in an effort to ride their fans' energy to a blowout win.

But, Kobe also comes out of fire, dropping in his first 5 or six shots in a row. And in spite of the Celtics efficience on the offensive end, they'll find that the game is close.

The Celtics will realize that even at their best, they can't beat Kobe. The real problem for the Celtics is that the rest of the Lakers will notice this as well. Their confidence will be lifted while simultaneously the Celtic confidence will waver.

After initially being ultra-offensive, I see Kobe becoming the facilitator towards the end of the first quarter, and that the game score is very close.

At that point, those who didn't know, will know. Kobe's got the handle on the whole series.

PJ will then play the Bench Mob at the start of the second quarter, and they will ess4entially trade baskets with whatever Celtics are on the floor, be they scrubs, starters, or some combination thereof.

Lesson from Phil, for those who didn't know; "I can beat your team with my second stringers...reco'nize"

I see the Lakers winning a close, but poised game. In the manner that lets the Celtics know that even though they gave us their best shot, we still won with relative ease.

One of things this group has proven time and time again is that they can consistently win games whose winning margin is very small for very long stretches of the game. They don't panic, at all. It's like any lead is a comfortable lead for this team.

Freaky, but true.

The Lakers win this series. It will never get to game 7, and I think game 6 is unlikely.

--Fearless

Realistic Celt Fan,

I appreciate your humility.

Truth be told, the Celtics play in a way that's a bit outside our comfort zone. I DO NOT expect this series to be easy for us.

Still Kobe Bryant is going to play with a fire we've never seen before.

Phil wants that 10th ring and is a much better coach than Doc Rivers.

That combination is tough to beat.

GO LAKERS!

Isn't it funny Celtic fans that Ray Allen is not part of the Big 3 now. In post game interviews it's KG and PP. At no time have they even tried to mix up the combination. You can just tell that Ray is fuming inside. Ray always thought he was as good as Kobe, because after all, he was THE MAN in Milwaukee and Seattle. Now he is just a role player. To bad he never developed his total game like Kobe has. When your one dementional, your weaknesses are exposed. Sorry Ray, you got what you wanted.

Game on! As hyped as I could be. Thanks for the outstanding roll call, Mamba!

Go team!

Chad Ford on the Lakers:

""I think the Lakers are headed for a five year run where they are the undisputed best team in the West if Bynum gets healthy and returns to form. They are scary.""

I guess there is room on the 4th Dynasty BW for you Chad -- but I'm warning you if you start fighting with Adande, I'm turning this BW around. hahahaha

I am turning around now.
Coz' of your postings I am beginning to realize the futility of my cause. I am on a wrong team. GK is a loser, Pierce Sucks and Allen (bless his soul, where is he!) Celtics is the biggest sucker of all. Kobe is the Ironman, Batman and Superman rolled into one.
Nobody can bet him. I now concede to the Lakers
Lakers in 6

i AM SUCKER MY SELF

Is it just me that doesn't care how many titles the Celtics have won or how many titles the Lakers have won? Don't get me wrong, I am glad the Lakers have won so many titles since I started rooting for them circa 1972. I love the Lakers, they are by far my favorite pro sports team. The Rams are a close second but that is my own personal issue! But those banners have zero to do with either team playing if you know what I mean. This is THESE LAKERS playing this Celtics Team. Throw the record vs. the Celtics in the finals out the door, throw the 2 losses earlier this year out the window. None of that matters in the sense it is 0-0 and the first team to 4 wins is the Champ. I believe it will be the Lakers but I am kind of sick of Celtic fans saying "We have owned LA in the Finals" Big whoop - this isn't the 1960's it isn't even the 80's when the Lakers got the edge. It is the here and now. The Threepeat team of LA doesn't matter. It is what Kobe, Lamar, Pau, Fisher, Vlad, Farmar, Turiaf, Walton, Ariza, Vujacic do on the court against Pierce and Co. All the historical stuff is great but it doesn't mean squat to how this series will play out.

The Celtics were a better team back in the day when there were 8 teams in the league and it wasn't even that relevant of a league. Players couldn't move around and all that. The Lakers have won more titles, and have been the more glamorous franchise since the league took off in the 80's. But again that doesn't matter when they tip off tonight. Who wins game one is all that is important. then adjustments will be made and we will see what happens.
GO LAKERS GO! Don't fall to those "bleeping" Celtics!!!!!!

Peace
Eagleboy

BUTLER,

Thank you! Thank you, thank you!

Using your very logic; that playing an injured team diminishes your accomplishments, and that conversely having an injury is a good excuse for your own failure, the Lakers can really claim to have already caught the Celtics in banners won.

Let us not forget that in the Lakers' first opportunity to win a three-peat against the Pistons, we lost both Magic and Scott (MJ and Kerr, to use your very own analogy). Then, when Shaq and Kobe were about to four-peat, we lost Malone to injury in the Finals.

It is so generous of you, as a PHX fan, to help us quantify just how great the Laker franchise is.

Too bad your logic does little to justify why PHX has zero banners. But keep trying, you might stumble upon something useful.

--Fearless

F the Celtics!

I AM A CONFUSED SOUL WITH BOSTON.
I AM NOW ENLIGHTED. - I SEE THE LAKERS AS THE TRUE CHAMPION.
I AM NOW A LAKER CONVERT
GO LAKERS

Just because kobee and PJ can't beat 2-time MVP Steve GNASH in a playoff series is no reason to give up on the lakers. Just keep your chin up and realize that kobee has a few years left to catch up to the Canadian Jesus!

The SUNS provided Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers the blueprint for knocking kobee out of the playoffs - tough D, unstoppable O, and a hunger for the prize. The Celtics have a big advantage over the lakers in terms of hunger and coaching, so they have what it takes.

Celtics have great luck vs. the lakers in the Finals. It's reality! How else can you explain 8 banners at the lakers expense? Sheesh! The SUNS would represent the WC with more honor!


The Change that made Kobe Better this year

No, it wasn't trusting his teammates, his teammates had to trust themselves.

It was his decision to lose weight over the summer.

This has made Kobe a more effcient player and will probably extend his career another 8-10 years.
For some reason, Kobe thought that he needed to be around 230 pounds to compete.
What the extra weight actually did was slow him down a half of step. It also affected his touch. His numbers in the playoffs have proven my point. The speed in which he's shown going to the basket has increased and his touch around the basket is Jordanesque. His stamina is unparalled, which makes his decision making sharper.
Kobe's decision to lose weight, his preparation, and his God-given talents, all translates into the best possible basketball player there can be. Does any player work as hard as he does? Does any player deserve this moment more?
Upon conclusion of these Finals......

KOBE WILL SHOW WHO THE TRUE IMMORTAL IS

THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE

complex,
"Cream of Wheat and Grits"

And there are many, many versions of grits. (Not a big fan of them; I lived in Florida for four years and had a number of close encounters with them.)

complex brotha,

As a brotha myself, if you've read my last post why I hate the Celtics so much than you know what I'm about to say is true; your post was the absolute funniest I've ever read. In life.

Sorry, it is sorta like laughing at you, because you are currently in purgatory. But, I couldn't help myself. That you for almost gettin' me fired! I better refrain from reading your posts at work, I guess. At least while the boss is around.

Stay strong!

--Fearless

F the Celtics

The Change that made Kobe Better this year

No, it wasn't trusting his teammates, his teammates had to trust themselves.

It was his decision to lose weight over the summer.

This has made Kobe a more effcient player and will probably extend his career another 8-10 years.
For some reason, Kobe thought that he needed to be around 230 pounds to compete.
What the extra weight actually did was slow him down a half of step. It also affected his touch. His numbers in the playoffs have proven my point. The speed in which he's shown going to the basket has increased and his touch around the basket is Jordanesque. His stamina is unparalled, which makes his decision making sharper.
Kobe's decision to lose weight, his preparation, and his God-given talents, all translates into the best possible basketball player there can be. Does any player work as hard as he does? Does any player deserve this moment more?
Upon conclusion of these Finals......

KOBE WILL SHOW WHO THE TRUE IMMORTAL IS

THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE

Butler,

The Suns are 0 and 2 in the Finals (in layman's terms, that's a big goose egg). What a pathetic record. O for the Finals. They cannot better represent the WC. Unless you can't count...

--Fearless

F the Celtics!

THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE

THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE

THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE

THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE

THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE

Don't worry; if the Celtics win game one, Obama will regretfully disassociate himself from the advisers who told him the Lakers would be the champs.

Guys I am sorry for my ex's behavior. You see, his little goat heart is still broken from LOSING to the Spurs. His hopes were high but as you can blantely tell, he still holds remorse for those who are actually winning. He has lived with this kind of pain his whole life. He tends to lash out at those who win, those who are happy and those who are just having a good time. I always felt sorry for him being that his funs never won ANYTHING and that his special little compact man couldn't advance his silly little team. Silly goose.
We of course had to call it off, for rather small (and I mean small) reasons.
Butler dear don't fret....I didn't tell that many people.

Good point about the problems that can be caused by fiddling too much with rotations, especially at a late point like this (Mavericks vs Golden State last season). Which is why Jackson has been, correctly, very hesitant in bringing in Mihm and Ariza, even though on paper they may be better than the players whose minutes they would be taking.

Butler... the last time i checked...Nash hasn't won a title.

Butler, this is going to be your last warning before I have you evicted. Your neighbors have been complaining about your constant wailing and sobbing late at night when you think no one can hear you. Those suns are gone for good, never to be seen again get over it. Also take down those stupid championship banners you fabricated that you hang from your ceiling, that is just utterly ridiculous, remember, NO BANNERS for you.

GO LAKERS!!!

So for those people that were interested in a viewing party tonight, not enough serious responses- nobody wants to party with me *tear*

Party has been cancelled- so sad- but hey there is time before sundays slaughter- who wants to go to a bar and have a few drinks and watch the Lakers kick some green??

I am the social director and I demand production from my fellow fans- lets light the torches, dust off the picthforks, and root for the Purple and Gold

Who's with me???????

Posted by: Simi Laker Girl | June 05, 2008 at 01:43 PM

I would like to attend if possible. Depends where and when. Post place and site or use that meetup.com suggested.

Good point about the problems that can be caused by fiddling too much with rotations, especially at a late point like this (Mavericks vs Golden State last season). Which is why Jackson has been, correctly, very hesitant in bringing in Mihm and Ariza, even though on paper they may be better than the players whose minutes they would be taking.

Posted by: exhelodrvr | June 05, 2008 at 03:05 PM

Butler... the last time i checked...Nash hasn't won a title.

on paper? How about real court time. ariza way better than Walton especially this series. Walton only if playing against slow bulkier player.

Oh man, I miss MadDog *tear*

Lakers KG gatorade spoof
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqn5Wzhxzoc

Posted by: Lakers Legacy | June 05, 2008 at 02:50 PM

Loved this post. Especially the expression on Garnetts face, classic deer in the headlights.

complex brotha,

That was hilarious. LMAO. Kudos.

Tom

 


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