Thoughts on (hopefully only) eight Drew-less weeks
On the plus side, I learned what "subluxation" means. On the minus side, everything else.
I'm not gonna lie. Nor am I gonna beat around the bush. Andrew Bynum missing at least eight weeks with, in layman's terms, a dislocated kneecap puts the Lakers, to use "Ocean's Eleven" speak, in "Barney Rubble." For those of you who only saw "Ocean's Twelve," that's the Don Cheadle character's phrase for "trouble." And if there's such a thing as "deep Barney Rubble," the Lakers are currently standing waist-high in it. They've just gone from one of the top-5 teams in the west (arguably in the NBA) to a squad that becomes markedly less dynamic and effective. Yes, there were several factors to this season's forward leap. The leadership and skills upgrade Derek Fisher represents over Smush Parker. Jordan Farmar's offseason improvement, which has allowed him to lead a more prolific (for the most part) second unit. Trevor Ariza replacing two spare parts and immediately clicking. The natural growth that comes with a core unit racking another season together. But that was all icing on the cake. Bynum is the cake. There's no single element shifting the Lakers into a legit playoff team than Andrew Bynum balling like a top-tier center.
Period. End of discussion. There is no debate to be had.
Having a big man that impacts the game on both ends of the floor is a luxury most teams don't have, one the Lakers have missed since a certain someone packed his bags for Miami. Obviously, Bynum isn't prime-of-his-career Diesel quite yet, but the difference between him and either Kwame Brown or Chris Mihm is night and day. Beyond just his scoring and being a board machine, the attention Bynum commands creates easy opportunities for his teammates, alters a zillion shots, and makes life less taxing for Kobe, who's now part of one of the NBA's best inside-outside duos. Aside from Parker-Duncan and maybe Williams-Boozer, Kobe-Bynum might be the league's most balanced I-O attack. Nash-Amare and Yao-McGrady (when healthy, which is never) have the scoring part covered, but the bigs don't bring the D. KG anchors a paint fortress with solid perimeter coverage for Boston, but doesn't fill up buckets like a traditional center. Camby and Chandler protect the rim, but aren't reliable scoring options. Dwight Howard plays on both sides of the ball, but Rashard/Hedo, while good, ain't Kobe by a long shot. Thus, there's a reason Kobe and Drew playing at this level creates a brand new equation. And if you remove this weapon from said equation, the results following the "equals" sign turns considerably different. And by "different," I mean "worse."
How do the Lakers weather the storm from here? For those thinking "trade," my immediate reaction is "good luck." Who you gonna move? Kwame and LO have the contracts needed for a blockbuster, but with size on short supply, you likely can't swap them. Ditto smaller-salaried Ronny Turiaf and maybe even Mihm. Javaris Crittenton or Jordan Farmar make too little money to bring back somebody of impact (unless it's a rookie-scale big, but there ain't none of worth getting moved for a backup PG or that dude's replacement). Derek Fisher isn't going anywhere. Even if they wanted to move Luke Walton, he has a base-level contract, which makes a trade very complicated. I'm pretty sure Trevor Ariza can't be flipped for a while unless straight up (and I'm definitely sure wouldn't land an impact player even if he made enough money to match salaries). And while you can never say never with Isiah Thomas still employed, I don't see the phone lighting up with takers for Vlad Rad. Thus, barring some wacky five team trade, the Lakers are kind of stuck when it comes to making moves to counter Bynum's absence.
Instead, I'm guessing a free agent big man will take that 15th roster spent. Maybe even two (and if that's the case, I imagine they'll eat Coby Karl's contract). Maybe a 10-day contract guy via the D-League or Europe. Maybe they coax PJ Brown or C-Webb out of retirement. Maybe training camp resident Jabari Smith will return to back up Kwame as the NBA's only "Cousins Tandem." But whatever the means, the Lakers need size in a desperate way. Chris Mihm won't be back for at least another couple weeks (and wasn't playing well when, relatively speaking, "healthy"). Vlad Radmanovic is a few games from returning, but might otherwise be out of the rotation and brings little to the table in terms of bulk. Ronny Turiaf plays his guts out, but isn't a true center and being forced to play him exclusively as a 5 robs depth from the power forward rotation. And even if you think the drop off from Andrew to Kwame won't be sizable- I don't see how, but I'm too depressed to argue- it doesn't change the fact that Brown still isn't 100% and is a 50/50 shot to get injured boarding the plane to Seattle. Plus, it's not entirely about the drop off from Andrew to Kwame. It's about the drop off from Kwame to an out of position Turiaf and what that does to the overall rotation. And bottom line, a front line rotation of Kwame, undersized Turiaf and Odom and even more undersized Walton isn't realistic, even for just a few games.
Aside from adding a player or two, what else am I expecting from the Lakers? Well, I don't know about "expect," but here's what I'm hoping. That they can play .500 or slightly better ball until around mid-March, when Bynum theoretically returns. That might be a downer goal for a team that's currently fourteen games above that mark, but I now consider this team dramatically closer to last season's, which was more or less a .500 club. But if they can tread water for a while and Bynum doesn't take too long to recover or get back in the swing of things, they could be solid again come playoff time (which I still don't expect them to miss, by the way). And certainly, that 25-11 cushion comes in handy right about now. I'm also thinking that for the time being Bynum's injury will prompt Phil to substitute Ariza into the starting lineup for Walton, with Luke becoming Odom's "small but who else are you gonna play" sub for Odom. When Vlad returns, so might the starting lineup, but for now, I'm predicting that's The Zen Master's reaction.
And speaking of reactions, here's another one I'm keeping a close eye on. Aside from the general question of how/if Kwame answers the bell, I'm quite curious as to how Kobe deals with this bump in the road. He's obviously been fantastic this season, surprising many (including myself) by providing terrific leadership for a team he appeared to want no part of. However, things have also been surprisingly good and it's much easier to be a leader when the sailing is smooth. Will a rough patch, perhaps coupled with teammates not able to pick up the slack, mean a repeat of the sourness we saw last offseason and in the past? I'm not trying to be a pessimist, but you also can't ignore history. As unparalleled as Kobe remains when it comes to hitting an opponent with punches, the same can't be said about his ability to roll with them. I'd like to think Kobe will see the bigger picture, recognize this development as a hiccup (even if it costs the Lakers what was shaping into a terrific season) and keep sight of what appears to be a very good thing going in L.A. But seeing the bigger picture has never been Kobe's strong suit, so while I'm optimistic he will, "confident " would be a stretch.
Time will tell. The same can be said about what lies ahead for the Los Angeles Lakers.
-AK
Okay... okay...
Everyone chant with me...
"MELLOW!!!!! MELLOW!!!! MELLOW!!!!" Now take a deep breath... "MELLOW!!!!! MELLOW!!!! MELLOW!!!!"
{Deep inhale. Long slow exhale.}
There. Better. (Sort of.)
Okay, if we lose to Seattle by 38 tonight, maybe we should start to freak out.
But if we beat Seattle, the bench steps up, Kwame plays well, and Lamar's foot doesn't cripple anyone else... things are okay.
We are not one player. We are a team.
Go Team!
GO LAKERS!
Posted by: Jon K. | January 14, 2008 at 06:42 PM
Jon Ireland's post makes me feel better. If we can go 14-13 or 13-14 over these 27 games we'll be a respectable 39-24 or 38-25. We just need to stay .500 somehow.
We can do that can't we?
Posted by: Xodus | January 14, 2008 at 06:43 PM
Larry
"..is that really necessary?"
well...yeah. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
This blog wouldn't be much fun if everybody was so agreeable.
Posted by: sixonezero | January 14, 2008 at 06:46 PM
Xodus,
I'm with you. Like I wrote, considering all the injuries, guys not 100%, a 9-game roadie and the absence of what Bynum brings, .500-ish ball would be pretty solid. Anything more would be gravy.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | January 14, 2008 at 06:47 PM
Never posted here before, but I had to say something. I just heard Kwame Brown talking about Andrew in an an interview. He complimented Byum, then wrapped it up by saying: "He did a pretty good job for us while I was gone."
"...while I was gone." As if the job were still Kwame's and Bynum was just helping the team out while they waited for Kwame to return with his 4.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 38% from the line.
Posted by: Steve R. | January 14, 2008 at 06:50 PM
AK-
Hate to correct you, but the Lakers have a 25-11 cushion, not a 25-14 cusion- Give the boys a LITTLE more credit then that. :)
Posted by: Jeff | January 14, 2008 at 06:53 PM
AK,
I'm just having flashbacks to last year that aren't helping me. My best friend called me about an hour ago and said "Man, the Lakers get screwed by injuries every year." Comments like that don't help, haha.
And I know that we're going to be playing on the road a lot in Feb. but if you look at the schedule after next week's rough patch against the top teams in the West, we'll be on the road but outside of Detroit, I wouldn't say any of those teams scare me.
Posted by: Xodus | January 14, 2008 at 06:55 PM
Time to cheer on the team it's almost game time. Go Lakers!!!
Posted by: Nemaia Faletogo | January 14, 2008 at 06:55 PM
Jeff,
Oh, no. Don't apologize. Thanks for catching that. I was thinking about them being 14 over .500, and I guess the "14" crept into the record.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | January 14, 2008 at 06:55 PM
Celtics really choking in crunch time.
May even lose the game after givin up a huge lead late in the fourth.
The structured ball teams never stop to amaze me.
Posted by: Allan | January 14, 2008 at 06:57 PM
Ron,
You're right, and Dr. Buss will get caught drunk driving with 2 of his exotic prize ho's. I say we all pray to our Laker guardian angel Chick Hearn, who hasn't been doing his job in protecting the Lakers from injury as of late.
Please, please, please Chick, hear me. You've already answered many of my requests-- such as to keep Kobe in a Laker uniform, and to strike down the traitor Shaq with shame and divorce, and to thwart the arrogant D Wade with excessive losses, and you sent Robert Horry to distrupt what should have been a certain Phoenix Suns championship run last season. So please, Chick, our Laker guardian angel, grant me these wishes:
* Please help Bynum heal remarkably and return the court in 3 weeks.
* Please allow Kwame "The Jittery One" Brown to shoot 52% from the field
* Please cause internal strife in Boston so that the big 3 will start infighting and the hated Celtics will go on a 7 game losing streak
* Please let us beat the Sonics by 13 tonight, and go 3 of 5 afterwards (including a blowout of the Suns)
* Please convince Jeanne Buss to pose for Playboy again
* Please let us bring a championship back to Los Angeles...
Posted by: troy | January 14, 2008 at 07:00 PM
Lakers are 5-1 with Kwame starting?
Maybe Mike T has a point?
Posted by: Faith | January 14, 2008 at 07:02 PM
Caron Butler just single handedly beat the hated Celtics tonight.
Posted by: troy | January 14, 2008 at 07:03 PM
Without Bynum, I think that this team is slightly worse than last season's team. I think playing .500 without him, considering the other injuries that they are already facing, would be considered a success.
If he comes back in 8 weeks, that will leave 19 games left for Bynum to get back into playing shape, for the team to re-adjust to playing with him, and for the team to hopefully regain momentum heading into the playoffs. That means 27 games without him; if they go 14-13 during that stretch, they will have a record of 39-24 at that point. Currently, that percentage (.619) would give them the 5th best record in the west. So making the playoffs is still reasonable, but certainly not a lock. Currently, Utah, Golden State and Houston are scrambling for 1 playoff spot. It's not out of the question that all three could pass the Lakers.
The most significant long-term effect, though, may be that the team is unwilling to trade Kwame mid-season. That was the most likely source to obtain that "last piece" that would make the Lakers a real contender next year.
Posted by: exhelodrvr | January 14, 2008 at 07:04 PM
Faith,
Kwame also had Bynum backing him up who was lighting it up with the second unit. He ignores things like that and acts as if all of our wins are because of Kwame and all of our losses is everyone else's fault.
Posted by: Xodus | January 14, 2008 at 07:06 PM
Wiz beat the Celts again!! In Boston!! Take heart Laker fans....anything can happen in the NBA!!
Posted by: bronxlakerfan | January 14, 2008 at 07:07 PM
Faith,
It's not simply a matter of Kwame's record as a starter vs Bynum's, or that Bynum undoubtedly brings more to the table. It's a matter of who's backing up Kwame or Bynum, and what happens with the rotation. Part of what helped Kwame's record as a starter was Bynum's presence. And vice versa, obviously. When Mike keeps harping on Kwame's record, he's missing (or ignoring) the point, because Kwame benefitted from Bynum backing him up. Not taking anything away from Kwame. That's just how it works.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | January 14, 2008 at 07:08 PM
Refs are really trying to give the game to the Celtics. Wiz are giving them all they can handle. I really think teams are starting to figure the Celtics out after adjusting to their new personnel and how they play. Celtics will definitely fade in the second half of the season. Caron just toying with Pierce and KG by just going to the hoop at will on them. Wizards are on the verge of winning with Caron at the line for two free throws with 8 seconds left. Caron makes both. Wizards win back to back games against the fading Celtics. Pistons lose by 24 to the Knicks last night, Celtics lose two in a row to the Gilbert-less Wiz which gives us hope that the Lakers can continue rolling even with Andrew down. Go Lakers!!!
Posted by: Nemaia Faletogo | January 14, 2008 at 07:09 PM
On the plus side about the Kobe factor, that has to have improved quite a bit. I can understand him being frustrated last year because there was literally no trade the Lakers could make to bring the team into contention. Now that Bynum more or less had his coming out party, he's got to think that staying isn't so bad.
The only question left is does he still feel hurt by the front office. I'm guessing he still does feel a bit lied too and that's something the FO and him need to work out behind closed doors ASAP.
I'm still really bummed out about the injury. Prior to Bynum's injury, trading Kwame was doable and represented our best hope of getting that final impact player to push up to the upper echelon of the NBA. Now the best we have to look for is a 5th or 6th seed.
Also of note is:
http://mvn.com/nba-lakers/2008/01/08/lakers-should-sign-dj-mbenga/
Which was written before Bynum got hurt.
Posted by: AndrewT | January 14, 2008 at 07:24 PM
LO is bad luck. Either he's injured or he causes another Laker to be injured. His game is weak, trade him!
Posted by: | January 14, 2008 at 07:40 PM
Let's look at teh bright side.
Now Kwame will have the minutes needed to get back into playing shape. And by the time Bynum is recovered, he'll have a month or so to get ready for a playoff push. Perhpas they won't finish in the top four, but with Bynum they can compete with anybody in the West.
Kid Licorice
Posted by: Kid Licorice | January 14, 2008 at 07:42 PM
happiest moment of the night so far - celtics lose..to the wizards..again !
might i add i live in massachusetts?
go LAKERS!
Posted by: Kelly | January 14, 2008 at 07:47 PM
Hey Ron,
I hope you remember but Chick was the Lakers' biggest fan and their biggest critic. He always told it like it was. You want homer announcers, go to Utah!!! Then again, they could always hire Rex Hudler to be the color man for the Lakers.
p.s. I agree, Lamar is Shleprock for the Lake Show!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Joegi99 | January 14, 2008 at 08:25 PM
Hey Ron,
I hope you remember but Chick was the Lakers' biggest fan and their biggest critic. He always told it like it was. You want homer announcers, go to Utah!!! Then again, they could always hire Rex Hudler to be the color man for the Lakers.
p.s. I agree, Lamar is Shleprock for the Lake Show!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Joegi99 | January 14, 2008 at 08:25 PM
AK/BK
Any reason why my posts not going through?
Posted by: | January 14, 2008 at 08:40 PM
Kwame is piece of garbage no matter how much points he has
Posted by: LAL_Fan | January 14, 2008 at 08:45 PM
Can not trade LO - nobody needs perenial underachiver with the pricetag 13M per year. Packaging with Kwame's expiring contract may do the trick. If we can ship out Luke for somone it'll be major coup, like we did for Cook
Posted by: LAL_Fan | January 14, 2008 at 08:49 PM
Looking this game flashback to the way we ended last year, loosing to the bad teams, when Kobe trying to do to much by himself. Just a look at the team now? Looks familiar? I don't belive we can not get something worth for Kwame's contract.
Posted by: LAL_Fan | January 14, 2008 at 08:57 PM
Lamar can forever, never make a clutch three pointer to win anything. Kobe trusts him and thrusts him into the spotlight time and time again and LO manages to screw it up every single time. Good think we have Mr. Open 24 Hours a day clutch Kobe! WHooooooooooooo This does not look good for the upcoming games though. Lakers couldn't play defense against SuperSonics. They haven't been good since GP and Shawn whatshisface.
Posted by: Seph | January 14, 2008 at 11:18 PM
Wow,
Adir's analysis was right on. Kobe IS shooting a low percentage and DOES need to share the ball. Calling Adir stupid is disrespectful and juvenile. If you want to find someone stupid, find a mirror.
RC
Posted by: RC | January 15, 2008 at 03:45 AM
Faith on the front page of the entire LA.times when I just logged in. Woot!
And yes, that Kobe fella isn't bad at this game. Let's keep him.
Posted by: Benjamin | January 15, 2008 at 04:16 AM
Those of you say that KB should share the ball are fools
Box scores:
KB 42 mins. 21-44 fgm/fga 48 points
LO 46 mins. 3-15 fgm/fga 6 points (14 Rebs)
Luke 33 mins 1-6 fgm/fga 2 points (10 Rebs)
Fish 34 mins 5-10 fgm/fga 12 points
Kwame 39 mins 3-4 fgm/fga 10 points (10 Rebs)
and also who was KB guarding last night DURANT (Seattle best player).
KB's man: Durant 39 min 6/26 fgm/fga 19 points (18 Rebs)
LO's man: Collison 39 min 10/16 fgm/fga 24 points
Luke's man: J Green 36 mins 6-12 fgm/fga 14 points (7 Rebs)
Fish’s man: Watson 36 mins 3-7 fgm/fga 6 points (9 Rebs)
Kwa's man: J Green 36 mins 6-8 fgm/fga 16 points (9 Rebs)
Seattle role players outplayed the Lakers role players by allot. The rest of the team has a way of not showing up when they are needed, (outside Fish) so get off KB's back when the others players consistently earn his trust he has shown faith in them, however would you rather lose the game by sharing the ball with players (outside Fish) who have proved not to show up.
Posted by: ow | January 15, 2008 at 09:43 AM
ow,
Must you resort to name calling? Also, the stats you cite are for 1 game. See ESPN's stats for the season and you'll see that 9 other Lakers are shooting a higher percentage than Kobe is this year. Granted, some of these players have played few minutes. Would you call Phil Jackson a fool? He said much the same thing. Read what he said. He's in the Hall of Fame. You're not.
Posted by: RC | January 17, 2008 at 04:42 AM
I found an interesting website that shows the salaries of NBA players. I'm not sure about the accuracy, but here it is: www.eskimo.com/~pbender/contracts
My interest was caused by the "trade Kwame" talk in today's blogs. I wondered whether the Lakers get their money's worth, and I've come to the conclusion that Mitch Kupchak isn't a genius. We have Vlad Rad the Bad signed thru 2011 at 6 mil per season. Good move, Mitch. Luke, greatest guy in the world--but a guy who doesn't get three minutes off the bench on a contending team--- is making 5 million.
Did you know that Vlad and Luke make the same money as Udonis Haslem and Boris Diaw? I didn't spend time looking for too many other guys' salaries, but that realization was enough to make my stomach turn.
The problem with the Lakers is Kupchak, who traded Butler for Kwame and signed Vlad Rad the Bad and Luke for top dollar. Kupchak was smart for keeping Bynum but is very lucky that Fisher took a pay cut to play here.
Now for Kwame. Sorry, but I have to chime in. If you're 6-11 with that body and you've got all the time in the world to practice, how can you not catch a ball? How can you NOT develop two F'ing low post moves and a ten foot jumper. How can you not be a defensive presence with that speed?
If I was Kwame (imagine the women!!), I would be paying my own private coach to spend four hours a day with me to develop a few low post moves and learn to play better individual and team defense. I'd shoot 1000 free throws every day and pay Rick Barry to teach me if I couldn't learn the traditional technique. Kwame doesn't care. That's why he was booed.
Posted by: Alan | January 18, 2008 at 01:24 PM