The softer side of the roadie
(UPDATE - My take on the starting small forward question is added below the jump, for those interested.)
Not to poo poo the first opponent taking on the Lakers (5PM PST, KCAL) during back to back away contests, but the Memphis Grizzlies are a decidedly more "beatable" team than the New Orleans Hornets awaiting the Lakers on Wednesday. Who will be the starting small forward during this theoretical beat down opportunity? It's a call between Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza, with Phil Jackson often reserving the right to flip flop based on matchups. PJ floated the notion of going with Ariza during yesterday's practice as a counter to Rudy Gay, which would mean Walton coming off the pine, which suits Big Red's kid just fine. Granted, he personally thinks he's produced better as a starter, but again, no biggie one way or the other. Besides, Walton's ankle still hurts like a mother no matter when he enters a game, so to some degree, who cares? The Lakers could always go with Kobe at the 3, but then they'd be killing a slam dunk All-Star campaign at guard (although Kobe would probably get voted in listed as a center).
For those curious, the numbers for Walton as a starter vs. a sub don't bear much difference one way or the other. He does tend to turn the ball over a little more off the bench, but then again, he also shoots 33% better at the stripe for whatever reason while playing in the second unit, so that might offset the butterfingers. Ariza's splits are harder to evaluate, since the starter-sub discrepancy includes Orlando stats produced while not playing much.
MORE ADDED BELOW THE JUMP
I had a doctor's appointment in the morning, so I needed to post today's links before adding my two cents. But I didn't want to spark a small forward debate without adding my thoughts. Let me preface this discussion by saying (for probably about the 50th time this season, but oh well) that I think "starting" remains, in most cases, an overrated and overblown topic. All in all, it doesn't reflect a player's impact nearly as much as his minutes or how often he finishes the game. People often regard the starting unit as proof of a "pecking order" or a player's "worth," when it often has more to do with creating the best overall fivesomes for both the first and second units, as well as creating beneficial matchups.
Personally, I would start Ariza in most cases. He's the better defender (and unlike Luke, can be used primarily for that role if need be) and adds a spark of energy to the opening group. But my rationale also has as much to do with what Walton can do for the second unit, rather than purely a "Luke vs. Trevor" issue. Walton brings another good ball handler and facilitator with quality triangular knowledge off the bench, which equals less onus on Jordan Farmar to put things in motion. The only other options are basically (when healthy) Sasha Vujacic (more shooter than true play maker) or Javaris Crittenton, playing in Sasha's absence and often battling the urge to "prove himself," which often leads to him trying to do too much and turning the ball over even more often). Thus, the ball is often in Farmar's hands, and lately that's led to some over-dribbling and a lack of motion while trying to organize. Walton's presence could add some fluidity to the proceedings, perhaps offsetting to some degree what the loss of Andrew Bynum has meant for the bench's early season dominance.
That said, even while proposing to start Ariza, I can still see the argument for going with Walton. The second unit tends to play more uptempo, which is clearly a better fit for Ariza's game than Walton's. The first unit already has Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom, both of whom are capable of breaking down a defender and taking it to the hole. Save Farmar or maybe Crittenton (if he remains in the rotation when Sasha's healthy), the bench unit is comprised of either shooters or bigs, so an additional threat to slash and attack can create more options. Plus, playing Luke with the first unit's better defenders can help cover his weaknesses on that front (although, quite frankly, they're not nearly as bad as some of his detractors make them out to be).
In the end, Phil's current approach of going by matchup is probably as sensible as setting one starter in stone. Neither Walton nor Ariza is playing decidedly better or worse in either role (as opposed to, say, Vlad Radmanovic, who's been considerably better off the bench). Nor does any unhappiness appear to be brewing over the direction Jackson wants to go. And let's be honest. It's not like Phil's hemming and hawing between Kobe Bryant and Coby Karl. We're talking about two role players. Neither is All-Star quality. Both would likely come off the bench on most teams. Even if you think one is a better call than the other, I don't think a flat out obvious choice is staring the Zen Master in the face.
Doesn't make the debate any less interesting. But still, a perspective should be maintained. I wouldn't drive yourself nuts over the call.
-AK
Why do we need to trade someone when everything is working fine? Why now and not at the end of the year when more players will be available as free agents? Problem with trading in mid season, they have to learn the triangle so they become proficient by next season, why not gut it out with all the players we have plus those in those second draft picks waiting for their turn. Kings will never give RonRon to the Lakers as long as Maloof are the owners.
Posted by: Edwin Gueco | January 08, 2008 at 03:12 PM
"The Sports Guy has Bynum's ceiling as the best center not named Yao or Dwight Howard, but I'm removing a ceiling. With his length, athleticism and soft touch the skies the limit for him."
Posted by: Xodus | January 08, 2008 at 03:00 PM
Absolutely right.
Posted by: Nemaia Faletogo | January 08, 2008 at 03:18 PM
predictions for tonight:
bynum has another big first half, kobe has one of those 6-18 games with 20 something points, fish and farmar play well, lakers blow out and give jcritt a chance to impress without 500 turnovers, luke and ariza wont really impact this game (even though i think theyre both good), and kwame will be dnp due to the tornado.
WIN TODAY, WIN TOMORROW, WIN 60, GO LAKERS
Posted by: mrbarneydangles | January 08, 2008 at 03:19 PM
Why is Luuuuuke a problem as a starter in 3, he's a problem in the second string too because of his incessant passing and lacking the fundamentals to go for dunks or lay ups. He is really a PG, a slow PG. Is it by coincidence when Sasha, Vlad, Luke and Chris were not playing, Lakers were winning big w/ less T/O's?
Posted by: Edwin Gueco | January 08, 2008 at 03:19 PM
Xodus,
"The Sports Guy has Bynum's ceiling as the best center not named Yao or Dwight Howard, but I'm removing a ceiling. With his length, athleticism and soft touch the skies the limit for him."
I concur on one condition. Bynum's ceiling is limited only by his persistent effort with Kareem. If he stopped developing skills and knowledge right now and *only* worked on his athleticism (strength, quickness) then I would say he could match or possibly surpass D. Howard. However, if he does those things AND works with Kareem and continually grows his knowledge and skill level, then comparisons to Yao or Howard will be laughable. It's up to Bynum how far he goes.
Posted by: Tim-4-Show | January 08, 2008 at 03:20 PM
BREAKING NEWS!!!
Mike T. is actually Kwame Brown's mother.
That explains alot.
:)
Posted by: frank1rizzo | January 08, 2008 at 02:57 PM
Frank,
That was a low blow, LOL.
Posted by: Nemaia Faletogo | January 08, 2008 at 03:21 PM
andand,
Your trade proposal does one thing very well... it would put Lamar back to the 4th option where he belongs.
I don't mean the 4, I mean the 4th option.
If trading for Kwame was the team's biggest mistake, then electing to trade Caron instead of Lamar was their second biggest mistake.
Posted by: Tim-4-Show | January 08, 2008 at 03:24 PM
a quick gist of what a possible trade could look like:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=981~557~1711~601~25&teams=20~5~23~13~13&te=&cash=
obviously i feel that some draft pick would be included and probably a couple of other players like crit would probably go but overall i think that this trade benifits all teams.
Lakers: they get ron ron, solifies our SF position (we get newble another SF but only because i haven't played around with the trade machine more
Phili: they get a huge expirin contract with kwame, which they have been looking for. plus they'd probably get an unsigned draft pick like sun yue from LA or elsewhere
Cavs: they get their pass first pg that they want, they lose gooden who hasnt really been incredbly great so far this year, but they get miller (a huge addition) he's not j kidd but hes a great passer and will open the game up for teammates.
SKings: They gain a good power forward in Gooden, but they lose artest. mikki moore has been playing great for them but i think gooden is a better option, plus he could spell bmiller in stretches. once bibby gets back, they improve a great deal.
Posted by: andand | January 08, 2008 at 03:36 PM
how about we send philly VladR and Kwame, they send Cavs Andre Miller and Lakers Reggie Evans, Cavs send Gooden to the Queens, and the Queens send over Ron Ron. That was we get rid of Vlads contract, but get another physical PF instead of a soft one, and they get another crazy player in Artest instead of Space Cadet.
Posted by: richard | January 08, 2008 at 03:52 PM
Lakalova,
Sorry - creature of habit :)
Posted by: hariyahu | January 08, 2008 at 03:57 PM
Regarding the ongoing Luke-Trevor controversy. Does it really need to be said that every coach not only has a system that he prefers, he also likes to populate it with certain types of players? It isn't just the best athlete available at each and every position. And a great coach like Phil does it more by feel rather than by scientific method or "Hollinger's rating system" or the ultimate...Mike T's month-end report. In short, he observes how his team plays as a unit in various stages of games and various types of other teams/systems.
So far, it's clear that Phil likes BOTH players. They give him OPTIONS (another thing that coaches like). And by God, in spite of all the brilliant advice offered by the geniuses here on Laker Nation Central, he's going to use BOTH of them whenever and however he dang well pleases. The instant any of our friends here exhibit 9 or more NBA championship rings on their various appendages, I will defer to their strategy rather than Phil's.
In the meantime, GO LUKE! GO TREVOR! GO LAKERS!!!
Posted by: CornerJ | January 08, 2008 at 04:01 PM
see... what's going to happen tonight is, and they're all in on it... Mike T will call David Stern and tell him to tell the refs to call 2 phantom fouls on Bynum in the first quarter, the Lakers will be behind by 2 points and then... everything will stop... Kwame will slowly walk over to the scorer's table, put one leg up on the table and start rubbing a small towel over his calf, then he will get some oil and start really greasing it up and Mike T will go WILD! all the lights in the arena will be turned off except for one spotlight on Kwame as he massages the oil into his calves. First one leg... then the other... Kobe will walk over and sit down in the lotus position to observe the GREAT TEACHER. Then... suddenly! The lights will come on and everybody will come out of their hypnotic state and Kwame will bring everybody back to reality as a simple inbounds pass slips through his fingers and goes out of bounds... and he slaps his hands together... makes that "Darn!" face and starts to trot back to the other end of the court...
and Mike T sits back in his chair and says, "not going to mention that one..."
Posted by: TaosHum | January 08, 2008 at 04:01 PM
andand,
Why would Philly be ready to swap out Miller for Kwame? You'd prolly have to add in either Crit or Farmar.
Sac wouldn't mind Gooden, but you'll have to prolly sweeten the deal by adding a draft pick or two and taking on a bad contract (kenny or SAR) and ship another contract out (Coby)?
Posted by: hariyahu | January 08, 2008 at 04:03 PM
man, Artest is an example of how personality problems can effect how much you make in sports. He is averaging 19pts, 6reb, 4a, 2stl, and 1blk and he only makes 7.4 million. And on top of that he is one of the best 1-on-1 defenders in the game. imagine how much he could be paid if he wasn't so irrational and disturbed.
Posted by: richard | January 08, 2008 at 04:14 PM
I think a combination of offense and defense wins championships, preferably the combination that creates the biggest margin of the team's points over the opponent's points.
Also, I don't care who starts, Luke Walton or Trevor Ariza. I just know that Ariza should be playing more minutes than Walton. Same thing goes for Bynum and Kwame, with Bynum garnering more minutes than Kwame.
One last warning, the Lakers must prevent Mike Conley from penetrating the interior of their defense tonight!
60 WIN BANDWAGON STILL ROLLING!!
Posted by: Amazing_Happens | January 08, 2008 at 04:22 PM
53 to comment and I say we win them both.
Lakers - Prove you are worthy to take the ring.
Posted by: AN1 | January 08, 2008 at 04:31 PM
George Mikan
Wilt Chamberlain
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Shaquille O'Neal
Andrew Bynum
HAHAHA!!!!!!
Go Lakers! Take care of business tonight so we can enjoy the Showdown tomorrow.
It's the Year of the Bynum!!!
BD
Posted by: BD | January 08, 2008 at 04:31 PM
Do you think that Utah wants to trade AK-47? he is maybe as unstable as Kwame, VRad, and Artest. In fact, those four players may be the most emotionally erattic players in the game, if you don't include any Pacers, Knicks, or Warriors in the list.
Posted by: richard | January 08, 2008 at 04:49 PM
hariyahu.......Thanks for that ......i have been trying to tell Mike T that for a while.Mike makes some very good points but you summed it up well.......
Team D.....Look at the Pistons...its almost small ball...they dont have a monster in the middle but still beat the celtics in the first game....You can still win it all without a monster......Good team D....and good perimeter D
Posted by: Thirty2 | January 08, 2008 at 04:52 PM
One thing I've learned in the 22 years of watching NBA basketball is that the good teams don't show everything during the regular season. The Spurs and Detroit are perfect examples. If the Spurs play a team they project to run into during the playoffs, they don't play them the way they will in the playoffs. A very good example of this is when the Spurs played Dallas this year: Bowen wasn't guarding Dirk during key times throughout the game. In fact Bowen and other key players were sulking a lot like they were fustrated and can't stop certain people and it's all a game they play. Because when the playoffs run around, the mentality changes and there is no more fustration and the key players are being defended. In other words, the Spurs "act" like they can't guard you during the regular season. Duncan is a master at this as is the whole Spurs team.
Don't get me wrong. The Spurs try to win, but if it's a team they can potentially meet in the playoffs, they don't play the key players the same at all.
The main reason I bring this up is because the Suns are doing the same thing. Amare was not his usual dominating self against the Lakers. Maybe Bynum had something to do with it, but I would wait to judge on that AFTER the playoffs because the regular season doesn't mean hardly anything.
The good teams don't show their stuff until it really counts - especially against teams they will likely meet in the playoffs.
I would say the Spurs are the masters at this in the NBA today. They know how to play great defense, but still let the opposing stars "think" they have an advantage and then the Spurs stop them in the playoffs.
All you have to do is watch Bowen and Duncan during the regular season as opposed to the playoffs and notice how they are not as aggressive on the stars of the opposing team. They even go as far as putting their heads down and look visibly fustrated! I know this is an act, because they don't do that in the playoffs. The only time you know Duncan and the Spurs are really fustrated? When they look down and dejected on the bench.
Maybe Im wrong..But I've watched the Spurs enough over the last 5 years to see this pattern.
Posted by: zen | January 08, 2008 at 04:55 PM
Taoshum
"Kwame will slowly walk over to the scorer's table, put one leg up on the table and start rubbing a small towel over his calf, then he will get some oil and start really greasing it up and Mike T will go WILD! all the lights in the arena will be turned off except for one spotlight on Kwame as he massages the oil into his calves."
that little nugget beat out the cup of coffee as the day's picker-upper. nice.
Posted by: sixonezero | January 08, 2008 at 05:00 PM
hariyahu,
your right, it would be tough to sell miller for kwame. there seems to be a mismatch of talent between the two. crit would probably be addeed to the pot to for miller as well as adraft pick. the only reason that the sixers would even consider taking kwame is because they are looking for expiring contracts to pick up a big time free agent in the ofseason. they'd probably be more willing to do the trade later in the year.
andand
Posted by: | January 08, 2008 at 05:15 PM
Taoshum,
". . Kwame will slowly walk ...."
Dang, still laughing after an hour of reading that. Now if only Generic one can tie that up with how the zombies reacted.
Posted by: p ang | January 08, 2008 at 05:19 PM
For s**ts and giggles.
http://tinyurl.com/2pkusq
Posted by: Charles | January 08, 2008 at 09:41 PM
lakers won't lose against the hornets. that's an assurance for you, guys. :)
Posted by: | January 09, 2008 at 01:18 AM
Laker Lover,
>>>By going with a combo of Ariza and Luke, the lakers are saying neither is good enough to play
>>>starters minutes at the SF position.
>>>
>>>Thats not the recipe for a championship team as I have suggested many times because a team
>>>will not get consistent production without consistent minutes.
Tell that to Michael Finley, Manu Ginobili, and the Spurs.
Posted by: Long Time Laker Fan | January 09, 2008 at 09:32 AM
hariyahu and Laker Lover,
On the defense thing. I think the Lakers are playing good defense (4th best opponent shooting % is
a key stat - also point differential is one of the highest in the league). Mike T gets all flustered about
the number of points they give up. I'm making the point that the number of points given up isn't the
key stat for indicating how good your defense is, nor is a pure indicator that you're going to win games.
Since you mentioned that you think the Lakers would have a better chance at a championship if they
gave up closer to 90 points per game than 100 points per game, let me quote you a few numbers:
104.0, 105.3, 106.9, 106.4, 107.3, 104.9, and 101.8
Those are the average points given up by the Lakers teams that won the championships in 1980,
1982, 1985, 1987, 1988, 2001, and 2002.
There's only one Laker team in the last 30 years who gave up less than 100 ppg for a season, and
that was the 1999-2000 championship team. They gave up 98.4 points, which isn't that far under 100.
This season the Lakers are giving up 101.4 points per game, and I think they are perfectly capable
of going pretty far giving up that many points. As long as they keep scoring 107.5 themselves, they
should do just fine.
Posted by: Long Time Laker Fan | January 09, 2008 at 09:50 AM
hariyahu,
>>>I think the only great defender on the Celtics is KG himself.
Actually, Rajon Rondo is a very good defender - about the only PG who's schooled him so far this season
was Chauncey Billups, and it was a strength thing more than speed. Paul Pierce is also a reasonably
good defender. Ray Allen was a matador defender with Seattle, but he's trying harder in Boston.
Posted by: Long Time Laker Fan | January 09, 2008 at 09:55 AM
i've been critical of bynum for the past 2 years but now he shows a little bit of kareem's move and baby hooks.
he still need to get up and down the court without delay. i notice after missed shots he will critique himself allowing time for opponents be in possision on the other end of the court.
i look for him to be a team captain next year. remember bynum, Dunk! Dunk! with vengence
Posted by: apujac | January 12, 2008 at 08:36 AM