Know Thy Enemy: Houston, Seattle, New Orleans, Utah
Back by (semi) popular demand! Today we'll take a look at the rest of the Western Conference's lottery squads. While the Baltic Avenues of the West don't shape up as threats this season, this bunch, including the Rockets, Sonics, Hornets and Jazz, could make a little noise. But will they be better or worse than the Lakers?
HOUSTON ROCKETS (34-48 last season)
Big Gains: Traded for Shane Battier, Kirk Snyder.
Big Losses: Traded Stromile Swift. Bob Sura?
Big things were expected from the Rockets last season, with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady (permanently referred to by Mom as "Yao's friend," since she always draws a blank trying to remember his name), having played a full season as a duo. Instead, the team suffered so many injuries, you expected news of Jeff Van Gundy getting shanked in the shower as a capper. But the talent is there, if stunningly fragile.
After healing up, Yao Ming spent the season's second half newly aggressive and absolutely balling, including a 28 point/11 board/2 block March. With Shaq on the decline (and content to let Wade carry his ass), "NBA's best center" could be Yao's for the taking. T-Mac is labeled by some as a poor man's Kobe Bryant (one hopes he has a rich man's Kobe Bryant health insurance plan), but Kobe-lite still shreds teams on a regular basis. Throw in Shane Battier, who can do just about everything (including take pressure off McGrady), and that's a pretty tough trio, reinforced by solid compliments Juwan Howard, Luther Head, Ryan Bowen, Rafer Alston, Deke "Cookie Monster" Motumbo, Snyder and Sura (assuming injuries don't force retirement, resigning him to life as a Stephen Baldwin impersonator). Then again, should everyone's medical history remain consistent, you could very well end up with Van Gundy's slower-than-a-parked-car offense being run through whoever's capable of walking. We watched that version last season. Ain't pretty.
Final Verdict: This a really tough one to call, since it's entirely health dependent. Should they all stay on the court, Yao-McGrady-Battier could keep Houston running side by side or even slightly ahead of the Purple and Gold. However, I've firmly established myself as a "gotta see it to believe it" kinda guy on this blog, so I'm gonna label them "worse than the Lakers." But an asterisk is understood. (AK)
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS (35-47 last season)
Big Gains: Drafted Mouhamed Saer Sene (not so much a big gain as a tall one), Denham Brown, Yotam Halperin, and brought '05 pick Mickael Gelabale over from Spain.
Big Losses: Traded Mikki Moore (and all his reptiles) for a second rounder in '09.
After a surprising '04-'05 campaign that saw them win 52 games and the Northwest, the Sonics took a serious step backward last year. And unless the NBA decides to award teams an extra five wins for every inexperienced, raw, below-the-legal-drinking-age center that they keep on the roster, they're one of the few W.C. squads shaping up to be worse this year than last. Most of the speculation around the team this summer has centered around where they'll play and who will sign the checks, as opposed to finding better players to receive them. Yes, they've still got Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but after that, the talent level drops off the Space Needle. Luke Ridnour is a solid player, as is Earl Watson. Nick Collison doesn't hurt anyone. Chris Wilcox, who is likely to return, if only on a one year tender deal, played well for Seattle after coming over from the Clips. Good players all, but nothing that excites you, and maybe just a mite backcourt heavy?
Even with Wilcox, there may not be a team in basketball with a more questionable frontcourt than the Sonics. They seem to be collecting young projects in the post with the enthusiasm of sci-fi geeks hoarding commemorative Star Wars glasses from Burger King. Robert Swift, Johan Petro, and Sene have a total of three years experience between them, and all need more work than a rusted out Chevette. Seattle was so weak on the boards last year that Wilcox, whose motor was constantly questioned in L.A., was easily their best rebounder at 8.2 a game. Sure he played well, but it would have been almost impossible for him not to be a force on Seattle's glass. They were among the worst rebounding teams in the league, especially on the defensive end (Reggie Evans, who only played 20 minutes a game before being traded to Denver, was second on the team with 6.7 RPG). Combine those problems with their tendency to let other teams score with Scott Baio-esque frequency (Seattle allowed 105.6 ppg, an NBA worst), and it paints an ugly picture.
Final Verdict: In a conference headed north, Seattle's going the wrong way. Much worse than the Lakers. (BK)
NEW ORLEANS/OKLAHOMA CITY HORNETS (38-44)
Big Gains: Traded for Tyson Chandler. Signed Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson. Drafted Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons.
Big Losses: Traded P.J. Brown, Kirk Snyder, J.R. Smith. Lost Speedy Claxton and Aaron Williams to free agency. Waived Moochie Norris (which is actually irrelevant, but he's one of my favorite scrub players, so I'll throw him in there).
Remember how Melrose Place started out as a totally unwatchable, boring piece of crap on the verge of getting canceled, then Heather Locklear joined the cast and it became awesome? That's basically the effect Chris Paul had on the Hornets. People talk about how dependent the Lakers are on Kobe. And that's often been the case. But the Hornets' relationship with CP could be summed up in two words: Crackhead. Pipe. Do you even remember how God awful these guys were just a season earlier? And with all due respect to '05-06 addition Desmond Mason (solid on both sides of the ball and likely the NBA's best artist) and the strides made by F David West (2nd in MIP balloting), Paul made it happen. Beyond anybody's craziest of dreams.
Cue aggressive overhaul.
Whether "aggressive" equals "overpaid and overrated" has divided many an NBA analyst. But even if none of the new additions are worth their paycheck, they all have their uses. Chandler is pricey for a guy without a go-to move, but he's an energetic rebounder and defender (West can provide the front court scoring). The way too expensive Stojakovic is older and injury-prone, but can stroke it from the French Quarter and moves well without the rock. Me thinks Paul will find him for a lot of wide open looks. And for the 40 games Jackson's healthy (I don't remember which reader calls Jax "The Suit," since he's always wearing one on the sidelines, but it's a great nickname), he gives them scoring, D, and serious nads. Plus, he's taking over for Claxton, who's always hurt anyway. And bottom line, if anyone can spark automatic meshing, it's Paul. He's the best rook point guard to emerge in eons. And if CP's running of a less talented squad indicates anything, these Hornets could pack a mighty... wait for it... sting.
Final Verdict: These guys upgraded, but so have other teams. The West is seriously tough. And even if the Lakers improve by just 3 wins, I'm skeptical as to whether NO/OKC's new parts equal the 11 necessary to pass them. They'll finish behind the Lakers (although not by enough to breathe easy). (AK)
UTAH JAZZ (41-41)
Big Gains: Drafted Ronnie Brewer, Dee Brown, and Paul Millsap (no relation to Ronnie, in either blood or spelling). Traded for Derek Fisher and Rafael Araujo, resigned Matt Harpring and Jarron Collins.
Big Losses: Traded Devin Brown, Keith McCloud, and Andre Owens to GSW, Kris Humphries and Robert Whaley to Toronto, while Greg Ostertag (mercifully) retired.
Two years ago, I had Utah in the playoffs, and they were terrible. Last year, I thought they'd struggle and they nearly cracked the playoff ladder. Maybe I'm the wrong guy to make an evaluation on these guys? They were basically a .500 team both with and without Carlos Boozer last year, so it's hard to say a healthy season from the big PF will be the difference maker, even if the words "healthy" and "Carlos Boozer" could be put in the same sentence without causing laughter. Utah has a great player in Andre Kiralenko, and some good ones in Boozer, Mehmet Okur (who at 18/9 probably tops the NBA's Unknown Production Team), and Harpring, plus some potential in Deron Williams and Brewer. While I'm not sure I'd have been running out to add his contract to my payroll, acquiring Derek Fisher will help take pressure off Williams and bolster Utah's backcourt. There's theoretically enough talent to challenge for a playoff spot, but Utah will have to find more scoring. 92 points a game is even boring in Utah.
They'll also have to fix a point differential (-2.6, worse than six lottery teams) that suggests they were lucky in '04-'05 to finish with at .500. I have a sneaking suspicion Utah will be this year what they were last year- a group that isn't talented enough to beat good teams that play to their capabilities, but will frustrate good teams on off nights. They won't blow into the gym and wipe people out. If the chips fall their way, they could contend for a playoff spot. But given the improvement around the conference, it'll be a tough road in for the Jazz.
Final Verdict: Almost a litmus test for playoff hopefuls in the West, like one of those signs you see heading onto a roller coaster. "You must be at least as tall as the Utah Jazz to ride this playoff ride." Being better than them won't necessarily get you in, but being worse means you're definitely out. Fortunately for the Lakers, they're on the top side of the hand. (BK)
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AZ,
San Diego has good fans. Remember when the Chargers went to the Super Bowl in '94? Or the Pads went to the World Series in '98? This city was popping off big time!
The problems come when our teams are losers. San Diegans would rather go to the beach or enjoy the weather with out watching the sad ass Padres blow another game when they are right in the thick of the division race. I love my Pads, but man are they blowing it right now. It's embarrassing the way they are responding to this Dodger run. It's a total collapse up to this point.
And AZ, how can you be a Dodger fan living in San Diego? That's another problem with this city's fans in my opinion. A lot of San Diegans do not support the local team. We are a city of transplants. We have a whole bunch of fans from other cities living here. Cub fans, Met fans, Raider fans, Dodger fans, Chief fans, etc.; and it pisses me off as a native to come to my home team's game and see all these other fans whoopin' and yuckin' it up on my home turf. That's why you see a lot of violence during Charger/Raider games at Qualcomm these days.
Those Raider fans are nuts. One game a few years ago, a Raider fan actually stabbed a Charger fan in the stomach. It was caught on tape for everyone to see. Every game against the Raiders is a big event around here, especially now after that stabbing. Charger fans(mostly the drunk thugs) walk around the stadium looking for Raider fans to start junk with. I've seen so many fights at these games it's ridiculous.
Anyways, AZ, I think as a San Diegan your best bet would be to support the Pads and not the Dodgers. It might save you from having to fight at Petco Park! j/k Haha!
Go Lakers!
Posted by: Rocky | August 17, 2006 at 11:47 AM
JoninJapan,
The next batch will come in time. We like to space them out.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | August 17, 2006 at 12:51 PM
Rocky,
I'm one of those transplants so I'm guilty as the next guy. But you make sense, I know three people in San Diego from San Diego. I also think it's just way too nice here with too much to do to spend time watching the usually sucky teams. However, teh Dodgers have been pretty bad the past few years and they set attendance records every year. Go figure.
As for Charger games, there are always fights at the Q. I stopped going to games because of the attitude, it's just not worth it to me.
Posted by: Andrew Z | August 17, 2006 at 01:30 PM
Andrew Z,
Good point about Famarr pick being a good reason not to sign marcus banks. Honestly I'm not big on small guards, to me whatever the bring to the table is negated on the defensive end. Still now that he's a laker i'm rooting for him to be succesful, if only so we can trade him x years down the line.
In Kobe we trust,
Go Lakers
Posted by: Taliq | August 17, 2006 at 01:44 PM
Taliq,
I'm right there with you on the small guard thing. There are a couple that really make a difference, but overall the NBA is getting quicker and I think you'll see 6'5" to 6'8" doing everything on offense the small guys can, but on defense they bring so much more to the table.
Posted by: Andrew Z | August 17, 2006 at 02:45 PM
jj,
remember ther are two kinds of fans in this blogs: one the realist who projects the Lakers not making the playoffs as the worst side and the best side is going allthe way to championship; the other group are the optimists that Lakers will have a better record than last year and may be the top three teams in the country today. So if you don't like what you read, treat it as just another prjections of the realist of which you don't belong.
Posted by: Edwin Gueco | August 17, 2006 at 04:33 PM
the big chill:
We’ are both so damn lucky to be Laker and Niner fans. I can’t imagine what it would be like to be Knicks and Lions fans or Celtics and Dolphins fans. Someone up somewhere must be looking out for us.
To begin with, I think that the Lakers have a terrific mix of talented youth and experience on the team. I love the draft of Jordan Farmar, the shooting of Vladimir Radmanovic, the defense and energy of Maurice Evans, and the potential offered by Shammond Williams. Mitch should be congratulated for an excellent off-season. Combining these new faces with Kobe, Lamar, Kwame, Mihm, Walton, Parker, Vujacic, Cook, and Turiaff will give the Lakers the strongest roster and bench they have had since Shaq left.
I believe we have an outside shot to compete for a championship this year which will evolve into a great shot next year. More importantly, I believe we have the seeds to build another Laker dynasty that will win multiple championshiops starting in 2007/8.
Here are my keys to the Lakers reaching the next level:
(1) ROY for Farmar at 1 – The key to the Lakers growth to reach the next level is developing Jordan Farmar by giving him the chance to earn the starting point guard position. Farmar will give the Lakers a sorely needed “floor general’ to run the triangle and transition offenses. His proven court vision, high basketball IQ, and ability to penetrate at will is critical to the team becoming better. Farmar will hopefully rise to the challenge and be ready to lead us to a championship by next year or, if we get really lucky, by the time this year’s playoffs start. I also think that Farmar can develop into our best point guard defender while contributing 15 ppg, 3 rpg, and 7 apg, which would win him the league ROY.
(2) MVP for Kobe at 3 – As Tex Winter has said, we need to play Kobe at the 3 on offense in the Triangle just like the Bulls did with Michael Jordan. This will get Kobe easier shots and make it more difficult for teams to double-team him the weak side of the court. This will also allow Kobe to conserve energy which he can hopefully use to return to the shut down defender that he used to be. I think Kobe could become the spark that inspires the entire team to play better defense. I would like to see him take on the leadership role for our defense. Kobe should be able to shoot over 50% from the field at the 3 and produce 30 ppg. 7 rpg, and 6 apg as well as being the team’s top defender. Combined with 55 wins, that would give Kobe his first MVP season.
(3) MIP for Lamar at 4 – Again, the ability of Farmar to take responsibility for the point guard role on the team will allow Lamar to fully concentrate on playing down low as a “true” power forward, which everyone concedes is his best position. Yes, he could play the 3 and possibly even the 1, but he is best at the 4, which he proved down the stretch and in the playoffs last year. I think that Lamar can produce a constant 20 ppg, 10 rpg, and 5 apg as our starting power forward, which could win him the league MIP and a spot in the All-Star game.
(4) PT for Bynum at 5 – Again, we need to accelerate Bynum’s development. I believe Andrew will play 12 to 15 minutes per game regularly. We need him to really provide us with strong help defense in the lane and to be able to become the primary backup to Kwame at the 5. I don’t think sending him to the D-League will help. Yes, he has not had a lot of game experience, but he will grow fastest playing against “real” NBA players in practice and on the court. I think Andrew suffers from the same syndrome as most teenagers, which is a lack of focus and consistency. I prefer seeing him put into high energy situations such as when he played Shaq or Duncan. That will help him maintain focus and growth. He can still become the next great Laker center if we push him and keep him moving up the ladder.
(5) Free Agent Next Year at 3 – The final player piece we need to balance our roster would be a strong defensive small forward, whom we should be able to sign before next year with the money freed up by Brian Grant’s contract going off the books after next year. We still need a 6-8 or 6-8 guy who can guard the Tracy McGrady or LeBron James type small forwards in the league to compensate for Vlade Radmanovic’s and Luke Walton’s lack of defense. While the Lakers won’t have the dollars to go after max-contract type free agents, we will have the ability to add a Ron Artest type free agent who will demand $8M to $10M, which is more than the MLE would allow us to pay this year.
I think that the all of the signs point to Phil Jackson only coaching for two more years and wanting to win his 10th championship before he retires for health reasons after next year. Jeannie Buss has almost said as much. Therefore, the push will be on to get Farmar and Bynum and our deep bench ready for next year at the worst and this year’s playoffs at best so Phil gets his shot at his 10th NBA Championship.
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | August 17, 2006 at 06:44 PM
Rocky:
I'll pass your lauditory comments about the Chargers running back, tight end, defense, and Rivers to my old man. He will be thrilled although being real "old school" he will wait to be "shown."
Even though I have dumped on the bloggers who claim to have "multipe" favorite teams, I will admit that I do root for the Chargers just so my dad will be happey. So good luck - unless you are playing against the Niners.
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | August 17, 2006 at 06:51 PM
Edwin:
The problem with many of the "realists" on the blog is that they believe that their version of "reality" regarding the Lakers is the only correct version. That's why they categorize anything that goes beyond their "reality" as being overly optimistic.
In truth, what we usually end up debating on the Lakers Blog are the wide range of "potentialities," only one of which will actually become a reality.
Unfortunately, many of the "realists" will refuse to recognize true "reality" even in hindsight, such as those that do not believe that the Lakers were playing championship level basketball when they ended last season with a 14-4 streak.
You see, in the end, one fan's "reality" is just another fan's "pipe dream" or "nightmare." And that's what makes the blog run day and night even now.
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | August 17, 2006 at 07:03 PM
Edwin,
Based on what you are saying, the realistic view of any situation is always a letdown type of view.
Why could the realistic view be that theb Lakers make the playoffs but still don't challenge for the championship? Why does the realsitic view have to be that they won't make the playoffs?
Posted by: JJ | August 18, 2006 at 07:24 AM
I wrote in another thread that the Lakers should try and acertain the condition of Nets guard Jeff McInnis because I thought he would be available. Today Hoopshype reports:
"With Serbian center Mile Ilic and second-round pick Hassan Adams soon to sign, the Nets will have 15 players on their roster. However, the team is continuing efforts to part ways with point guard Jeff McInnis.
"We're actively trying to trade him," Thorn said. "We have not been able to reach any agreement on a buyout, so it stays exactly where it was."
McInnis is owed $3.6 million this season. If he is not bought out or traded, Thorn said he is not welcome at Nets' camp come October."
This is a guy whom I believe, if he is okay physically, could help the Lakers. Have we used our BAE yet?
Posted by: Glenn | August 18, 2006 at 08:01 AM
LakerTom,
Famarr for roy, really? Not trying to rain down on your parade but how do you enivsion him on defense. With his small frame, even nate robison would feel confident posting him up. If you watched the suns series you know how painful it is to watch the other team exploit a mismatch over and over again. It's like having a train run on you in jail ( umm not that i'd know anything about that ... lol )
In Kobe we Trust,
Go Lakers
Posted by: Taliq | August 18, 2006 at 01:47 PM
Taliq:
I agree that the biggest defensive problem Farmar will have to overcome is defending against bigger and stronger guards trying to post him up. There is no doubt that he needs to hit the weights and become stronger.
In his favor, Farmar is much more athletic and stronger than you would think by just looking at him. He can jump with the best and has a wiry sort of "Tayshaun Prince" type of strength. He actually surprised everybody with his athleticism and strength at the pre-draft combine this year by posting the largest vertical leap of any player at 42" and by successfully bench pressing 185 lbs 11 times, compared to 6 just times for Brandon Roy and 4 times for Marcus Williams.
Being posted up is a problem that every small guard in the league has to deal with, including Steve Nash, Allen Iverson, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, T.J. Ford, etc. Fortunately, the reality is that most of the guards these guys face do not have the post up skills to really take advantage of the matchup. A case in example was Smush Parker's inability to take advantage of Steve Nash in the post during the Lakers-Suns playoff series.
It actually takes a well-run, patient, and disciplined offense to take advantage of post up opportunities, just as it takes an intelligent, responsive, and help-oriented team defense to defend against post ups. If you look at the teams that the Lakers compete against in the West, who would reallly be the problem. Farmar matches up well against the point guards of the Mavs, Suns, Spurs, and Kings, who are the key teams we need to beat. He would have tougher matchups against the Clippers and Nuggets, other playoff contenders in the West.
With rare exceptions, all NBA players have specific strengths and weaknesses and it is their overall contribution that is what counts in the end. The other team's guards will also have to guard Farmar, who is relentless at getting into the paint and finishing. And as Steve Nash has proven, strong leadership, superb ball handling, great passing, and efficient scoring can often offset obvious defensive liabilities.
Finally, unless you have a Scottie Pippen long body and freakish ability, defense in the NBA today is as much court smarts and perseverance and team awareness and coordination as it is individual defensive skills. While Farmar may have certain liabilities -- size, youth, and experience, for sure -- I believe he also has the leadership qualities, mental toughness, and physical skills to become an outstanding point guard for the Lakers as soon as this year.
Tom
Posted by: LakerTom | August 18, 2006 at 06:51 PM
Nothing surprising about another pathetic attempt to devalue Shaq, who won the championship while "letting Wade carry his ass."
Posted by: akflave | August 19, 2006 at 10:33 AM
Tom,
Great assessment of Farmar. I couldn't agree more. I think there is something special about him ... he is a winner and a natural leader. I think he will be a "special" Laker for the future (and even at times this year as we get deeper in the season). He cannot be entirely judged on the standard criteria only (size, speed, strength, quickness, etc.).
I think that the Lakers need one more very good (or great) player who can score consistently (either a 3 or 4, not a point guard) ... he need not be a superstar.
Leo
Posted by: Leo | August 20, 2006 at 07:35 AM
LakerTom,
Well said. I've still got my reservations...just as with bynum, jf must "show me the money" before I start giving him any props.
In Kobe we Trust,
Go Lakers
Posted by: Taliq | August 21, 2006 at 08:20 AM
If only because he has one year with the team playing the triangle and despite his playoff flop, I would rather start Smush than McInnis
Posted by: Marcus | August 23, 2006 at 03:35 PM