Know Thy Enemy: Houston, Seattle, New Orleans, Utah
Back by (semi) popular demand! Today we'll take a look at the rest of the Western Conference's lottery squads. While the Baltic Avenues of the West don't shape up as threats this season, this bunch, including the Rockets, Sonics, Hornets and Jazz, could make a little noise. But will they be better or worse than the Lakers?
HOUSTON ROCKETS (34-48 last season)
Big Gains: Traded for Shane Battier, Kirk Snyder.
Big Losses: Traded Stromile Swift. Bob Sura?
Big things were expected from the Rockets last season, with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady (permanently referred to by Mom as "Yao's friend," since she always draws a blank trying to remember his name), having played a full season as a duo. Instead, the team suffered so many injuries, you expected news of Jeff Van Gundy getting shanked in the shower as a capper. But the talent is there, if stunningly fragile.
After healing up, Yao Ming spent the season's second half newly aggressive and absolutely balling, including a 28 point/11 board/2 block March. With Shaq on the decline (and content to let Wade carry his ass), "NBA's best center" could be Yao's for the taking. T-Mac is labeled by some as a poor man's Kobe Bryant (one hopes he has a rich man's Kobe Bryant health insurance plan), but Kobe-lite still shreds teams on a regular basis. Throw in Shane Battier, who can do just about everything (including take pressure off McGrady), and that's a pretty tough trio, reinforced by solid compliments Juwan Howard, Luther Head, Ryan Bowen, Rafer Alston, Deke "Cookie Monster" Motumbo, Snyder and Sura (assuming injuries don't force retirement, resigning him to life as a Stephen Baldwin impersonator). Then again, should everyone's medical history remain consistent, you could very well end up with Van Gundy's slower-than-a-parked-car offense being run through whoever's capable of walking. We watched that version last season. Ain't pretty.
Final Verdict: This a really tough one to call, since it's entirely health dependent. Should they all stay on the court, Yao-McGrady-Battier could keep Houston running side by side or even slightly ahead of the Purple and Gold. However, I've firmly established myself as a "gotta see it to believe it" kinda guy on this blog, so I'm gonna label them "worse than the Lakers." But an asterisk is understood. (AK)
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS (35-47 last season)
Big Gains: Drafted Mouhamed Saer Sene (not so much a big gain as a tall one), Denham Brown, Yotam Halperin, and brought '05 pick Mickael Gelabale over from Spain.
Big Losses: Traded Mikki Moore (and all his reptiles) for a second rounder in '09.
After a surprising '04-'05 campaign that saw them win 52 games and the Northwest, the Sonics took a serious step backward last year. And unless the NBA decides to award teams an extra five wins for every inexperienced, raw, below-the-legal-drinking-age center that they keep on the roster, they're one of the few W.C. squads shaping up to be worse this year than last. Most of the speculation around the team this summer has centered around where they'll play and who will sign the checks, as opposed to finding better players to receive them. Yes, they've still got Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but after that, the talent level drops off the Space Needle. Luke Ridnour is a solid player, as is Earl Watson. Nick Collison doesn't hurt anyone. Chris Wilcox, who is likely to return, if only on a one year tender deal, played well for Seattle after coming over from the Clips. Good players all, but nothing that excites you, and maybe just a mite backcourt heavy?
Even with Wilcox, there may not be a team in basketball with a more questionable frontcourt than the Sonics. They seem to be collecting young projects in the post with the enthusiasm of sci-fi geeks hoarding commemorative Star Wars glasses from Burger King. Robert Swift, Johan Petro, and Sene have a total of three years experience between them, and all need more work than a rusted out Chevette. Seattle was so weak on the boards last year that Wilcox, whose motor was constantly questioned in L.A., was easily their best rebounder at 8.2 a game. Sure he played well, but it would have been almost impossible for him not to be a force on Seattle's glass. They were among the worst rebounding teams in the league, especially on the defensive end (Reggie Evans, who only played 20 minutes a game before being traded to Denver, was second on the team with 6.7 RPG). Combine those problems with their tendency to let other teams score with Scott Baio-esque frequency (Seattle allowed 105.6 ppg, an NBA worst), and it paints an ugly picture.
Final Verdict: In a conference headed north, Seattle's going the wrong way. Much worse than the Lakers. (BK)
NEW ORLEANS/OKLAHOMA CITY HORNETS (38-44)
Big Gains: Traded for Tyson Chandler. Signed Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson. Drafted Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons.
Big Losses: Traded P.J. Brown, Kirk Snyder, J.R. Smith. Lost Speedy Claxton and Aaron Williams to free agency. Waived Moochie Norris (which is actually irrelevant, but he's one of my favorite scrub players, so I'll throw him in there).
Remember how Melrose Place started out as a totally unwatchable, boring piece of crap on the verge of getting canceled, then Heather Locklear joined the cast and it became awesome? That's basically the effect Chris Paul had on the Hornets. People talk about how dependent the Lakers are on Kobe. And that's often been the case. But the Hornets' relationship with CP could be summed up in two words: Crackhead. Pipe. Do you even remember how God awful these guys were just a season earlier? And with all due respect to '05-06 addition Desmond Mason (solid on both sides of the ball and likely the NBA's best artist) and the strides made by F David West (2nd in MIP balloting), Paul made it happen. Beyond anybody's craziest of dreams.
Cue aggressive overhaul.
Whether "aggressive" equals "overpaid and overrated" has divided many an NBA analyst. But even if none of the new additions are worth their paycheck, they all have their uses. Chandler is pricey for a guy without a go-to move, but he's an energetic rebounder and defender (West can provide the front court scoring). The way too expensive Stojakovic is older and injury-prone, but can stroke it from the French Quarter and moves well without the rock. Me thinks Paul will find him for a lot of wide open looks. And for the 40 games Jackson's healthy (I don't remember which reader calls Jax "The Suit," since he's always wearing one on the sidelines, but it's a great nickname), he gives them scoring, D, and serious nads. Plus, he's taking over for Claxton, who's always hurt anyway. And bottom line, if anyone can spark automatic meshing, it's Paul. He's the best rook point guard to emerge in eons. And if CP's running of a less talented squad indicates anything, these Hornets could pack a mighty... wait for it... sting.
Final Verdict: These guys upgraded, but so have other teams. The West is seriously tough. And even if the Lakers improve by just 3 wins, I'm skeptical as to whether NO/OKC's new parts equal the 11 necessary to pass them. They'll finish behind the Lakers (although not by enough to breathe easy). (AK)
UTAH JAZZ (41-41)
Big Gains: Drafted Ronnie Brewer, Dee Brown, and Paul Millsap (no relation to Ronnie, in either blood or spelling). Traded for Derek Fisher and Rafael Araujo, resigned Matt Harpring and Jarron Collins.
Big Losses: Traded Devin Brown, Keith McCloud, and Andre Owens to GSW, Kris Humphries and Robert Whaley to Toronto, while Greg Ostertag (mercifully) retired.
Two years ago, I had Utah in the playoffs, and they were terrible. Last year, I thought they'd struggle and they nearly cracked the playoff ladder. Maybe I'm the wrong guy to make an evaluation on these guys? They were basically a .500 team both with and without Carlos Boozer last year, so it's hard to say a healthy season from the big PF will be the difference maker, even if the words "healthy" and "Carlos Boozer" could be put in the same sentence without causing laughter. Utah has a great player in Andre Kiralenko, and some good ones in Boozer, Mehmet Okur (who at 18/9 probably tops the NBA's Unknown Production Team), and Harpring, plus some potential in Deron Williams and Brewer. While I'm not sure I'd have been running out to add his contract to my payroll, acquiring Derek Fisher will help take pressure off Williams and bolster Utah's backcourt. There's theoretically enough talent to challenge for a playoff spot, but Utah will have to find more scoring. 92 points a game is even boring in Utah.
They'll also have to fix a point differential (-2.6, worse than six lottery teams) that suggests they were lucky in '04-'05 to finish with at .500. I have a sneaking suspicion Utah will be this year what they were last year- a group that isn't talented enough to beat good teams that play to their capabilities, but will frustrate good teams on off nights. They won't blow into the gym and wipe people out. If the chips fall their way, they could contend for a playoff spot. But given the improvement around the conference, it'll be a tough road in for the Jazz.
Final Verdict: Almost a litmus test for playoff hopefuls in the West, like one of those signs you see heading onto a roller coaster. "You must be at least as tall as the Utah Jazz to ride this playoff ride." Being better than them won't necessarily get you in, but being worse means you're definitely out. Fortunately for the Lakers, they're on the top side of the hand. (BK)
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Good stuff AK so you really think we're better then the Rockets?
Posted by: LakeMan | August 10, 2006 at 09:59 PM
Just one question...how does the other person think of the teams (like the ones with BK reactions, how do you feel AK? and vice versa). Just so I can eliminate you guys trying to make us feel better with these favorable results---lol, jk. But I really am interested, unless it's a matter of one speaking for the other.
Thanks
Posted by: Faith | August 10, 2006 at 10:03 PM
LakeMan,
Like I said, I really don't know with Houston. It's all about health, which killed them last season. If they're in the pink, they're tough. If they're hurt, they're horrible. It's really that cut and dry.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | August 10, 2006 at 10:17 PM
Faith,
Yeah, I basically agree with BK. I think Seattle will be absolutely horrific, not to mention filled with miserable players (particularly Fortson, whom I fear may kill someone if he's not traded soon). And I think he's pegged Utah pretty well. The Lakers better play them hard (because you know a Jerry Sloan team won't slack). But assuming the Lakers play hard, they should win.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | August 10, 2006 at 10:26 PM
Ak,
Sounds like Seattle is a unnatural disaster waiting to happen with Fortson and Wilcox. Is Fortson makin' too much or is he a candidate for Kobe security? He's like a Maurice Lucas without the talent. That's the one Shaq factor I miss, we were always tougher.
Posted by: Vman | August 10, 2006 at 11:05 PM
Based on your previous and current assessments you (AK/BK) basically are having the Lakers finishing in the top 8 teams of the west. And I imagine you’re placing them between the 7th and 8th seed or maybe maybe stretching your kindness they could finish 6th.
In my opinion Sacramento is not better than the Lakers even with Ron Artest, one more year with Ron but is that good?
Denver is not better than the Lakers, unless they get AL Harrington and trade K-Mart. Memphis is not better than the Lakers. I know Memphis got a couple of good draft picks, but I think Gasol is soft; maybe the Lakers could be better than them.
That leaves San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix and Clippers (in that order), we know you think these four teams are better than the Lakers and they are. But no one really knows what’s going to happen during an NBA season, certain teams may surprise you and others disappoint you. On paper a team may be better, but other factors factor in.
I know you are giving your assessments of what teams you think are better or worse than the Lakers, and are not placing the teams in order of seeding or anything like that, but well I thought of this reading your conclusions for each assessment.
Posted by: lakofan | August 10, 2006 at 11:17 PM
BK and AK,
There're others enemies in the West (Dallas, SA,Phoenix...). You should post something about those teams too. They're our worst enemies now. Because we're still weak. So they try to catch our trophy.
GO
Posted by: Guy Owanlele | August 10, 2006 at 11:25 PM
Lakofan and Guy,
We're simply going through all the teams in reverse order of the '05-'06 finish. Everyone in the conference will end up evaluated soon enough.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | August 10, 2006 at 11:30 PM
Good Job guys.
Houston
Has 2 great players in Yao and T-Mac and its too bad they barely get to play together. That being said maybe they havent developed too much chemistry due to injury and its gonnna be hard for all of them to play as a team.
"(permanently referred to by Mom as "Yao's friend," since she always draws a blank trying to remember his name)"
LOL just dont tell T-Mac that because when he was referred to as Air Canada's cousin in Toronto he got up and left.
Seattle
I feel sorry for Ray Allen. There's a guy like A.I. and KG that have the talent but not the rigth team. They wont be a threat to L.A. but I like to see Kobe smash on Ray "he got game" Allen.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City
I think they will greatly improve. They didnt really have "home games" since they mostly didnt play in NO and with a player like Paul who made his teammates better you cant count them out specially with a good shooter like Peja. Paul is just gonna keep getting better and so will his team. Its kinda hard to see how much better they will get depending on how healthy Peja stays and how much Chandler can bring.
Utah
I use to hate watching these guys when Stockton and Malone where there. Those guys were sooooooooooooo boring to watch. Its a new team now with AK-47 and are A LOT more exciting. They have enough talent to get around a .500 record but with the West being the most difficutl conference not even .500 is good enough no more to get to the playoffs. Even our Lakers having a much better team can barely get in so that leaves them out. However, they do play in the weakest division (northwest) and if they can pull it off and beat out the Nuggets then they get a free entrance into the playoffs for winning their division. Im sure the Nuggets wont give up that easily but you shouldnt count out anyone.
Posted by: Shady | August 10, 2006 at 11:33 PM
This could finally be the year of the Yao. Now that he's shown he can play option #1 it might save T Mac's back a bit. If Mac makes 70 games, you have to like their playoff chances. No one scores easier than the Mac man but I do believe the boy is destined for his annual stay at hotel DL.
Posted by: Vman | August 10, 2006 at 11:33 PM
AK/BK,
Great thread. I laughed, I cried...lol. Anyways, Houston and NOK need to be watched very closly this year. Utah won't be too shabby either. Seatle, what happened?
dan
Posted by: dan the man aka smushcalade | August 10, 2006 at 11:38 PM
AK / BK how many wins do you guys think we'll get next year? based on reports the roster seems set so there isn't a wait and see what kind of deals comes up that might change our prediction this is our roster in the season opener.
Posted by: LakeMan | August 10, 2006 at 11:46 PM
Lakofan
"That leaves San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix and Clippers (in that order)"
It actually goes by the leader in each divison (best record first) and then the 4th seed goes to best record overall after division leaders and the goes down like that. Thats why the Nuggets were the 3rd seed even though they had the had like the 6th best record. There's no way the Lakers will win their division against the Suns and also in the same one as the Clippers (will be a close one). Its not necessarily just being better than the other team but also how good your record is and where you land in your division. I wouldnt be suprised if the Lakers went all the way to the 5th seed since Memphis (5th) only beat us by 4 games and the Clippers (6th) only beat us by 2 games. We can better match up now to other teams and with more experience we will be able to win more games. The West definetly got better but we will have to get more win in the East and in close games. That should give us an extra 5-10 more wins getting us to that 50+ win season. Even if we did overachieve last season we should be a tougher team to beat and hopefully get a higher seed in the west.
Posted by: Shady | August 10, 2006 at 11:46 PM
Thanks AK.
Despite this good evaluation, it would be hard every night against those teams. Last year, sometimes they spank us hardly. Our playoffs chances rely on these "easy" games. So I hope we learned our lessons. Wait and see.
GO
Posted by: Guy Owanlele | August 10, 2006 at 11:50 PM
Faith (and others)-
With Houston, I think they have an excellent chance to make noise if everyone stays healthy. They were a pretty dominating team when T-Mac and Yao both were on the court together. Adding Battier to the mix is a great addition (at least in the short term), though it came at a steep price in Rudy Gay. I'm not a big Rafer Alston fan, but think Kirk Snyder might be a quietly solid pickup, and I like Luther Head. And Juwon Howard is still a pretty good player when he doesn't have to carry anything.
But the main thing is with Yao and T-Mac, they could have arguably the most impressive inside/outside combo in the WC. 82 games of that, and I would put them right up with the Lakers in terms of wins/losses, possibly a game or two ahead. The problem for them is, you can't count on 82 games (or even 72) from either. So right now, I'd say the Lakers are better.
As for NO/OKC, I don't think they're better right now, and I think in three years they'll regret the $ they're paying Peja, but this is a very dangerous team. They made some serious strides last year, and added talent in Chandler and Peja, plus Jackson. West improved a great deal and will have more room to operate b/c of improved shooting on the perimeter. They picked up more bulk up front in the draft, have a great stopper defensively in Desmond Mason, and I like that they resigned Rasual Butler. If all those new parts come together, they could be the surprise team in the West, w/ Chris Paul driving the ship. Injuries are an issue with this bunch, no doubt, and that could be their undoing. I'll put the Lakers ahead of them, but if they slip at all, the Hornets could be in a position to pass them up. In the East, they're a playoff team easily.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | August 10, 2006 at 11:51 PM
I know you are going in reverse, that's why I said the next teams. It is only predictable that you will say they are better or equal to the Lakers and they are. Since you are going in "reverse mode" it is only obvious who "got" better or are as equally good as last year.
Posted by: lakofan | August 10, 2006 at 11:53 PM
Lakofan,
Okay, for some reason I thought you were also wondering when we were getting to those teams.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | August 10, 2006 at 11:57 PM
Nop I wasn't wondering that, I just got ahead.
Posted by: lakofan | August 11, 2006 at 12:12 AM
I think Lakers will split the season with Rockets. Rockets did not make the playoffs last season because they were plagued by injuries on T-Mac then Yao Ming. Now they have added another tall forwards who could render damage to any team, that's Shane Battier. On some games you can expect Juwan Howard and Lutherhead to do some damage, but not on consistent basis.
The other three teams Jazz powered by AK, Harpring plus of course the Fish who could train their rookie guards. This team is tall so on a given night they could create headache with the Lakers on the match ups in the post. Hornets is practically a new team but Chris Paul and Stepa. could lead them to the winning column. Lastly, Sonics. Lakers beat them consecutively on the 2nd round but Allen, Mason could still inflict damage. Definitely, these four teams are much better than the previous teams on the other thread. Am I making sense? I'm getting sleepy!
Posted by: Edwin Gueco | August 11, 2006 at 12:14 AM
I agree Houston's trio is very solid, But as long as Kawme, Smush and Lamar play the way they are capable of playing and continue what they were doing at the end of last season. Then, we need not worry about Houston.
Honents got some intreguing talents. But, first year together for a lot of important pieces, is simply not ready. Besides, I think Lakers still have better overall talent.
Jazz & Memphise are perplexing to me. We have better talents than either club, but we just can't seem to OWN them. In order for the Lakers to be consider serious championship contender. We need to be able to own these two teams.
I think the 2 teams neck to neck with Lakers are the Clippers and Kings. It would be really interesting to see how each battle turn out.
Can't wait for the season to begin.
bvh
Posted by: bvh | August 11, 2006 at 12:19 AM
bvh
Yeah, Houston doesn't bother me. Kwame will shut Yao down and Kobe can more than cancel out T.Mc.!
The Hornets should be a fun squad to watch. If Paul can pick up where he left off last year and Peja hits his open shots, they should put up a fight. Plus the addition of Tyson in the west should be interesting. If there was ever a time for him to peake, it's right now.
dan
Posted by: dan the man aka smushcalade | August 11, 2006 at 12:34 AM
PHILING the TREYS
It was just 4 and some years ago. NELLIE'S MAVS were here in LA. DIRK, NASH and FINLEY would JACK UP the 3S, make EM. the PHIL would get up CALMLEY, do his trade mark WISTLE and call a 2 point play for SHAQ. it was the RULE a sure 2 would BEAT the 3 ANYDAY. after PHIL took the one year break and came BACK something was different. NOW instead of the SPURS and the PISTONS, the SUNS and the MAVS are the POWER houses. and UNTIL the HEAT started making the TREYS they didn't get a RING. after the day of SHAQ got his FORTH ring PHIL had aconversation with DAN PATRICK on radio show and he ADMITTED how important the THREE point line has become as one of the ESSENCES to build a CHAMPIONSHIP team. PHIL is PHILING the important of the made SHOTS beyond the ARC. it USED to be you LIVE by the THREEs you DIE by the THREEs. NOW its you LIVE by the THREEs and you DIE without them....
Posted by: rayray | August 11, 2006 at 12:42 AM
So in other words..the Lakers will be the 5th seed.
Posted by: Derek | August 11, 2006 at 02:18 AM
Is it just me or was the 04 season standings impossibly painful to look at without noticing the Lakers missing the playoffs by about 10 games? That year, or rather the last half of the season, was just painful. Im just glad i wasnt reading this blog then...i think that would have amounted to some federal law being broken the way these bloggers are lol.
Posted by: Caesar | August 11, 2006 at 03:08 AM
thanks AK, BK
I Like your assessment of each team (not because you ranked them lower than us haha but because i agreed with them LOL)
Houston- i think they have a chance as long as Yao stays healthy. i mean, hes a center. if Yao goes down the other teams can make Tracy try and beat them by himself and more often than not he might not (he [italicized is] Kobelite.) but if they try and make Yao beat them by himself, he just might, soley based on the fact that he gets a lot more high percentage shots due to his position, ooh and his hieght.
NO- CP is scary, nuff said. i think this team will struggle with consistency this year, and next year may be too late for Peja. .my prediction, their talented enough to make the playoffs, but they wont be consistent enough to win a 7gam series
Jazz- i always thought Okour and AK-47 were undervalued. this team seems to underperform for some reason. maybe this year will be different. I'm converting to AK-ism's see first believe later (while secretly rooting for the lakers lol)
Sonics- suprise to make the playoffs, still good as a litmus test i suppose
bottom line: the Jon-O-Meter has the following teams with the following records
New Orleans: (being the 2005 lakers of 2006) 45-48W-34-37L, maybe enough for a playoff spot, maybe not
the Jazz 06': 43-47W-35-39L, enough for casual Jazz fans to tune in during the last 20games or so.
the Sonics 06': 30-35W-47-52 maybe the owners will pay the team to lose so that theyll get kicked out of Seattle (or get a really good draft pick...hmm conspircy theory)
the Rockets...hmm the Jon-O-Meter broke down, im going to have to do this one manually
Rockets: 30-50W-32-52L best case scenerio both Yao and friend are healthy for 72games, worst case both are out for significant periods of season. (Yao still makes all-star)
Jon(inJapan)
Posted by: joninjapan | August 11, 2006 at 05:27 AM
Nice job, K Brothers!
You guys are going to be in camp in Hawai'i, right?
GO LAKERS!
Posted by: Jon Kavulic | August 11, 2006 at 05:45 AM
I'm a little worried about the Rockets and the Hornets. You never know when one of these teams will either have an injury-free season (Houston) or when everything will come together New Orleans/OKC).
Vman- I loved the line about Fortson (Maurice Lucas without the talent)
Maybe after last years playoff, Luke Walton is our enforcer! :)
rayray: good insights on Phil's view of the trey. This league has definitely become a guards' league with more importance on the outside game. Even bigs with a good outside game seem to be more the rage. I think that's why we picked up Radmanovic
Posted by: rdlee | August 11, 2006 at 05:51 AM
Our season is based on getting off to a very good start with a front-loaded home schedule. I slow start won't cut it this year. Last years schedule had a nice home court advantage at years end !
Posted by: LALAKERLOVER | August 11, 2006 at 07:05 AM
Good to see you being consistent AK. According to your standards of "gotta see it to believe it", T-Mac is still injured, the Rockets haven't acquired Battier yet, and Yao is still undrafted.
Posted by: McGarnagle | August 11, 2006 at 07:29 AM
AK & BK,
Thanks for your further assessment of the teams that did not make the post season last year. I agree with what you have stated for the most part. However, I do have 2 of 3 teams in this list which I believe will potentially crack the top 8 grouping this season. Depending on injuries along with meshing of talent, I believe that 1 or possibly 2 of the following 3 teams will make the post season this year.
Hornets, Rockets, Jazz.
My prediction is that the Hornets and Rockets will be the two teams that make it, while the Jazz will finish in the 9th, 10th or 11th spot battling for the 8th spot.
In order for 1 or more of these 3 teams to make the top 8, somebody is going to have to falter. Right now, I predict that the Kings and Grizzlies will fall out of the top 8 this season. That will make room for 2 teams to rise in the standings.
My question therefore is not so much who will make the top 8. Instead, my question is, how will those 8 positions fall into place based on records?
The only thing I am pretty confident about right now is that the Nuggets will be in the 4th position as the ONLY representative from the Northwest Division. That is a DEFAULT position for them right now.
The other 7 positions could actually be a little hard to put together.
I will reserve the right to go into greater detail of the other 7 positions during training camp.
Posted by: JJ | August 11, 2006 at 07:59 AM
Thanks Jon. As for camp, this year it is, like my wallet, in El Segundo.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | August 11, 2006 at 08:16 AM
Rayray: Slow down on the coffee... you're talking kinda weird. =)
Posted by: Digtaz | August 11, 2006 at 08:25 AM
I don't think the Clippers are going to make the playoffs this season
Posted by: Zakee | August 11, 2006 at 08:26 AM
Like I said, I think the Rockets, if fully healthy, are just as good as the Lakers, and have the potential to be a game or two better. I just don't think you can count on a healthy season from TMac and Yao.
The flip side, of course, is that we're all assuming a healthy 82 from Kobe and LO. While these guys aren't exactly brittle, it's not like they're locks to play 80 games, either. Both have missed significant time over their careers. That Kobe is coming off knee surgery isn't the most encouraging sign.
That's what's going to make this season so interesting. A five game injury to Kobe may be all it takes to close the gap between LA and Houston, NO/OKC, and possibly even Utah. Among last year's playoff teams, certainly the bottom half is going to be tight and tough to handicap. Conversely, the teams above the Lakers don't have much wiggle room either.
There's going to be very little margin for error this season.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | August 11, 2006 at 08:26 AM
I like the idea of camp being in El Segundo this year. That takes away all of the "we are relaxing" approach that can come when working out in a vacation spot.
The Lakers need to enter training camp with a worman's attitude coming in. I mean, I think all 19 or 20 that come to training camp need to have a chip on their shoulder that they are out to prove something to everybody else as well as here to work as hard as possible. That will make training camp very beneficial. The competitive attitude will then be continued into the season.
I agree with the person that stated that the Lakers need to be solid out of the gate. I believe that the first 10 games of the season (1st leg) need to be strong and the rule games. They can set the standard for how the season will go with how they perform out of the blocks. If they can start out in the pack...it will be easier to remain in the pack by the close of the season.
That is really what Seattle did 2 years ago when they ended up winning their division. They had such a high start in the first 15 to 20 games that they were in a nice position to build off of. Having a poor start puts a lot of weight on you to produce later.
EVERY team is trying to get adjusted in those first 15 to 20 games to the new season. It is very possible to catch teams that you normally wouldn't have a good shot at beating, by surprise and get a jump on the standings.
Posted by: JJ | August 11, 2006 at 08:26 AM
lol i dont think anyones going to stop you JJ. . .or force you to otherwise for that matter
Posted by: joninjapan | August 11, 2006 at 08:34 AM
Is it me, cause i think yao stinks. I don't see Huston as any kind of threat this year. Yao has never had the eye of the tiger. Hope we never make a play for him. GO LAKERS!!
Posted by: keifo | August 11, 2006 at 08:34 AM
If you think Houston will be a better team than the Lakers this season, then you are definitely smoking that good stuff. PASS THAT!!
No way...houston has been injury-prone for years now and they have NO team chemistry. LA has been mixing it up and building a lot of team chemistry the past 2 seasons. Of course, having a healthy T-Mac and Yao on the same squad wll definitely cause some ruckus, but no way will they be a better team, thats just silly.
None of the teams BK listed above will be better than the Lakers this season. I think the all have improved from last year(besides Seattle). Actually the hornets should be the most improved from that list, but still La has em all in check.
TO be honest, we dont have to worry about those teams, the teasm we need to worry about is San Antonio, Dallas and Phoenix...
Posted by: Blaze1bx | August 11, 2006 at 08:46 AM
Keifo-
Did you miss the second half of last season? Yao was as dominating as any player in basketball.
BK
Posted by: Brian Kamenetzky | August 11, 2006 at 09:09 AM
Blaze1bx
for the lakers to be truely successful this season they will need to "worry" about everybody
yes, even the knicks
Posted by: joninjapan | August 11, 2006 at 09:09 AM
dan,
Yao put the smack down on Kwame last year, he's the one big man that takes Kwame's one-on-one defense out of the equation. His ability to shoot from mid-range, use both hands with shots around the bucket, and sheer height kind of make Kwame and his position based strength defense kind of mute. At least with a guy like Shaq Kwame can hold his own strength wise, with KG and Duncan he's strong enough, and has quick enough feet to keep those guys off balance. Yao just has too many things going for him.
Posted by: Andrew Z | August 11, 2006 at 09:21 AM
I think Bynum is better than Yao right now! Didn't you see that move that Andrew put on Shaq?! No way I would take Yao over Bynum!
Posted by: exhelodrvr | August 11, 2006 at 09:34 AM
While I agree with most assessments thus far, I must admit that mentioning injuries as a factor for the Lakers is a mute point. First, it's mute because any of the teams that are built around 1 or 2 superstars, can't afford to lose that superstar for any significant length of time to remain at the same level as they would without them. This year, injuries will be crucial for the Spurs like never before. They have lost both Rasho and Nazr. They are super thin in the paint, and will rely heavy on Elson and Horry. Horry has been the man, but he is really old and Elson has yet to really be tested for his ability to come through for a team when needed.
What will happen if duncan gets hurt? It could mean lottery time if it is significantly long.
The second reason inuries are a mute point is because Kobe Bryant rarely misses significant numbers of games due to injuries. He normally plays through them. Last season he missed only 2 games all year counting the first round of the playoffs and that was because of suspension. Lamar, I believe, only missed a few games himself.
I don't believe this will be huge this year either.
Posted by: JJ | August 11, 2006 at 09:55 AM
joninjapan,
Yea u are definitely right. The Lakers can't sleep on any team in order to be successful this season, but those teams BK mentioned are towards the bottom of the list, if anything.
Call me crazy, but I think the Knicks are gonna turn it around this season. Thomas is gonna have them playing like the team they're supposed to be playing like. (I'm not just saying that because I am from New York either!) NYC is buzzing right now about how much better the Knicks will be.
Don't hate on NY....The Lakers have quite a few New Yorkers playing for them (Shammond Williams, Lamar Odom, & Smush Parker...with Bynum (NJ) and Kobe (Philly) nothing but a quick drive away!)
Posted by: Blaze1bx | August 11, 2006 at 09:57 AM
I respect Battier for his work ethic and his ability to do a little bit of everything on the court, but I don't think it's a sign of stregnth if he's your third name on your team. He's a solid 5th or 6th man, who is great to compliment others. James Worthy or even Dennis Rodman he's not.
Posted by: Mannie Jenkins | August 11, 2006 at 10:03 AM
I pretty much weighed in on all these teams yesterday - and agree with the assesments. But check this match up:
Alston/Snyder -- Smush/ShamWill
T-Mac/Head -- Kobe/Sasha
Battier -- Odom
Howard -- Cook/Turiaf
Yao/Deek -- Kwame/Mihm
Assuming health - which we've already identified as key to Houston's chances -- that is a pretty dead even match up. VladRad might be a difference maker. Also, I suppose they could shift Battier to the 4, but who's backing up Howard? This is going to be a fun series to watch.
In Utah, you have pretty interesting match ups as well, since Mehmet likes to jack it from outside, and AK is such a freak you never know where he's going to get his points. I like our advantage in the backcourt there with Kobe, but D-Fish is going to school his new team on Kobe's tendencies. Again, AK/BK hit it right - can't sleep on this team when they come to town.
Seattle will go as far as -- WILCOX of all people -- will take them. He played like a monster once he got out of Brand's shadow, but his D is suspect. You know what you're getting in Allen and Lewis, but unless Wilcox can give them consistent post presence, they will live and die by the long ball - and the lack of D.
NO/OKC just is too soon to tell. I don't like Peja's demeanor on the court. He's soft. He pouts. He's moody. CP (the Crack Pipe. That's jacked up!) will keep him moving, but if they hit a slump, Peja could become the anchor that pulls that ship down. Tyson? Whatever. He's like Dikembe without the finger waggle or the fundamentals. We should beat this team.
Now tell me.... what is going to happen with the Al Harrington saga? And is Wilcox staying in Seattle really a forgone conclucion? You telling me no East coast team is trying to pull him in? Is there anyone out there the lakers mighr add? Or have they reached maximum capacity.
Posted by: dmack | August 11, 2006 at 10:04 AM
Smushcalade,
Yeah, I was at that Rockets-Lakers game and Yao absolutely torched Kwame. 22/10 in the first HALF. And the scary thing is that Kwame actually played him really well. He stuck to him like glue and was extremely active. Yao was just on and unstoppable. It was one of those games where he made a shot and you'd say to yourself, "You can't do anything about that."
And he spent most of the season's second half in that zone. The guy may have turned a real corner, in terms of aggressiveness (the talent was always there).
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | August 11, 2006 at 10:04 AM
not hating on ny bro, just citing a team thats had bad manegment
i think theyll turn around too...course it should be easy to turn around 23wins...right?
you know i was looking at the big board fantasy top fifty and i was looking for a big name...perenial allstar...he wasnt there
think his name was shaq or something
not even an honourable mention
Posted by: joninjapan | August 11, 2006 at 10:09 AM
Blaze1bx - Of course the Knickerbockers will be better, they bottomed out last year, I cannot fathom them doing worse than their 20 something win record, I believe it was. Plus, THEY DO have talent in their young guns, most notably, Frye, and don't laugh, 1st rounder(BALKMAN).. And I am not saying that either cuz I am a New Yorker. Nonetheless, I don't see them making the playoffs though and if they do, I can't see them advancing.
But back to the Lakers, I think we will handle the Rockets 3-1 and all other WCF foes. I wrote it be4 and I am writing it again, we can do .750 against our conference if we eliminate the dumb ISH like closing out games at the end, etc.
GO LAKERS -- Kobe 2007 MVP
Posted by: lakersrydeordie | August 11, 2006 at 10:10 AM
Dmack,
To answer your question, I think Ryan Bowen would back up both Howard (and the 3 spot a fair amount). He's not much in the scoring department, but his energy and defense is often disruptive. He can make you work.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | August 11, 2006 at 10:10 AM