Pride or Playing the Percentages?
With ten games left, those who put in for playoff tickets are breathing relatively easy. Not that the Lakers should rest on their laurels or begin starting a Devin Green-Von Wafer-Aaron McKie-Jim Jackson-Ronny Turiaf lineup (they're going really small). But barring injury or some monumental collapse, they're wading in reasonably safe waters. The team's in a pretty nice groove at the moment. And save Sacto, nobody trailing behind seems capable of back to back wins, much less a threatening win streak. No slacking allowed, because every game still counts big and bad. But assuming the Lakers treat their business as such, I have a hard time picturing a 9th seed finish.
That being said, I don't see them rising past 7, either. Never say never, especially since they could do some damage by beating their Staples roommates on April 9th. But both Memphis and the Clips are playing pretty well. The Clips are deep enough to absorb Cat Mobley's ankle injury. Pau Gasol and Mike Miller are making life without Damon Stoudamire pretty tolerable. Therefore, I wouldn't bet your metaphorical farm, much less my own, on a 6 or 5 seed (Unless I just wanted the property off my hands, since I have absolutely no interest in farming).
But I could buy L.A. and Sacto swapping the 7 and 8 spots. And that's a scenario keeping the blog abuzz, since everyone is weighing first round pros and cons. The general consensus is that Phoenix, the probable 2 seed, will run the Lakers out of the arena. I happen to be a part of said consensus. The Lakers have crapped it up against teams like Atlanta, who don't even run particularly well, but do it all game like decapitated chickens. Against the Suns, a team that actually knows what they're doing, I give the Lakers worse odds than me hooking up with Scarlett Johansson. By getting the 8 seed, they'll theoretically face the Spurs or Mavs. Both tough match ups, but better on paper. The Spurs play a slower pace. Kwame's had some nice moments against Tim Duncan. And there's always a chance "Manu Girl" will return to Staples for that series, a definite plus in my mind. The appeal of Dallas can be summed up with one number: 62. I don't care how much Dallas' D has stiffened. Getting outscored by one guy stings for a while. Neither is a cakewalk. But both are undeniably better, so many folks could live with a loss or two. Assuming the Lakers make the playoffs either way, they'd view a slightly worse finish as a postseason survival mechanism.
But if you're a fan, especially during a season where a title is unlikely, would you prefer the team finish as strong as possible and let the chips fall as they may? Does the idea of a 7 seed provide more bragging rights and pride on the season? And can you stomach the idea of finishing behind the Kings? Cow Town/Cow bells? Tainted cheeseburgers? Mike Bibby's dance? You're cool lagging behind them in the "W" department? And for those "Kobe for MVP" campaigners working overtime, the lower the Lakers finish, the less likely Kobe will clear space on his mantle come May. And it's not like the Lakers are a lock to win against either Texas squad, anyway. If the same first round exit is a possibility against all three teams, does it really make a difference if it's a 4, 5, 6 or 7 game defeat? Wouldn't a better overall record provide you with a bigger sense of satisfaction when it's all said and done?
Maybe. Maybe not.
Better record and rolling the dice. Worse record and a "safer route." Both arguments have some merit. I really don't think there is a right answer, but I'd like to know what yours is.
AK
I for one want them to finish strong. Because, you never know. What if Memphis or the Clippers crack. The Lakers would be better off trying to win every game, period. You don't tank games.
Finish strong Lakers and the 6th spot could fall in your lap....
--Scott
Posted by: Scott | March 27, 2006 at 03:45 PM
Don't they (Sac, Memphis) have more games to go than us? Then I say, do as best as we can, grab whatever seed, 6,7, and if in the end, they end up with a better record, and we take yay 8th. Plus if worst comes to worst we face Phoenix, I'm hoping we'll have a strong slow down, physical strategy cause after all the playoffs are relatively slower and it's a matter of which team will force their tempo on the other. Don't write us off yet (if you are).
On a non-realistic, totally emotional side. I wish we'd take 5 or six and push the clippers down.
Posted by: Faith | March 27, 2006 at 03:45 PM
I really don't get why Phoenix is considered so formidable vis a vis the Lakers. L.A. played them twice this year. Yeah, they beat L.A. both times, but I don't see why the Lakers can't adjust after playing them a couple times.
It just doesn't seem so obvious to me that Phoenix's fast pace will definitely give the Lakers problems.
However, I will say that this upcoming game against the Suns will say a lot about how the Lakers can fare against Phoenix, so I am prepared to eat crow.
I just don't think we've seen enough to just say "well, Phoenix's style is not suited to the Lakers".
Posted by: KB8 Fan | March 27, 2006 at 03:47 PM
AK,
Your use of "safer route" was smart. There is no safe route with the teams the Lakers would face up, therefore I say play all out until a spot in the playoffs is clinched and then give Kobe, Lamar, and Kwame some rest. Of the three people we might face, I don't think we have a better chance against one more than the other. Obviously Phoenix gives us fits, but that's nothing compared to the playoff and championship experience we'd face in SA. You know, maybe Dallas is the team I want to face. But then that would mean them playing well going into the playoffs and us losing out the 7th seed to Suckramento, which I don't want to see.
I want the Lakers to play as well as possible the rest of the year, gain some serious momentum, and shock the higher seed in the first round.
Posted by: Andrew Z | March 27, 2006 at 03:49 PM
My point being, the Lakers lost to San Antonio twice as well, before beating them.
Posted by: KB8 Fan | March 27, 2006 at 03:50 PM
i say we should wait till after the phoenix games to decide...
Go Lakers...
Posted by: TrueLakerFan | March 27, 2006 at 03:52 PM
We should actually just be happy to be in the playoffs...if we get there. Let's not count our chickens before they hatch here people.
I would like to read a blog for the Spurs/Mavs/Suns and see what team(s) they would rather play and which they would rather not see in the first round. I'd like to see the idiot fan for one of these teams that would want to play Kobe in the first round.
Posted by: Andrew Z | March 27, 2006 at 03:58 PM
Here's my side of it...
I'm kinda looking at the big picture, which is the CHAMPIONSHIP run.
If we take 8th, we havta take either San Antonio or Dallas, and if we pass that round, the next round will end up with the same two sides, so I don't see anything good with that.
However, if it's 7th, life will be easier, Phoenix, which I think is the best team to face out of the 3 because of the lack of defense, and if we pass Phoenix, next round will only be Denver, Memphis, or Clipps, all three of them favor us.
My dream run:
1st round: 4-2 Phoenix
2nd round: 4-2 Clippers
West Finals: 4-3 Sacramento!!!
Finals: Miami... I don't wanna predict the outcome lol
Posted by: KB8TH WONDER | March 27, 2006 at 04:01 PM
It doesn't matter because whoever we play we must dictate the tempo. If it worked with Detroit and San Antonio, it will work with Phoenix. Just make the playoffs!
mike
Posted by: Michael Teniente | March 27, 2006 at 04:03 PM
It's always dangerous trying to take it easy going into the playoffs, operating under the assumption that you can just "turn the switch" in the first playoff game. That is especially true with a team like this year's Lakers, who are still trying to get their rotation set, figure out exactly what their roles are, and get comfortable with those roles. i.e. Kobe still needs to learn how best to work with Kwame and Smush on offense, Devean (presumably) needs to be worked back into the rotation, the team as a group needs A LOT of work on defense (just look at the first half yesterday). So I think that the best bet is to keep going pretty darn close to full speed.
Posted by: exhelodrvr | March 27, 2006 at 04:11 PM
a possible garnett sigthin in purple and gold next year?...judge for yourself
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/sports/basketball/14194316.htm
Go Lakers...
Posted by: TrueLakerFan | March 27, 2006 at 04:11 PM
O YE MEN OF LITTLE FAITH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i don't know what the hell y'all talking about. i personally want the lakers to finish as strong as possible, i do not care who we get in the playoffs, suns, spurs, mavericks, it doesn't matter to me. if you are a true fan, you would believe. and guess what i believe! if the suns beat us, oh well! and if they don't, great! mind you, its going to be a whole new ball game in the playoffs, and the laker team that's playing now is not the same team we had a few weeks ago. well that's how i feel, and only time will tell. GO LAKERS, I BELIEVE, AND I'M NEVER SCARED. (that's why i made money on the heat, and piston games, but lost on the rockets game).
Posted by: emman | March 27, 2006 at 04:18 PM
I would wait to make any kind of prediction, they've played the Suns a while back, so come next game we can see how things unfold, in the mean time the Lakers have other teams to take care off, and they need to fight for their playoff spot, they are not there yet. We'll have to see.
Posted by: lakofan | March 27, 2006 at 04:31 PM
We will not beat the Spurs stop dreaming.
Posted by: Keven | March 27, 2006 at 04:40 PM
Just think, if the Lakers beat Memphis those two games at home after leading most of the game, the Lakers would be closer to the 6th Seed with 40 wins and 32 loses compared to Mepmphis 40-31 record.
Posted by: JW | March 27, 2006 at 04:46 PM
I think Mav would definitely be ideal because i think Parker and Nash would kill us with penetrations.
but i wouldn't mind playing against the suns. yah they got nash, marion, and amare. but i think the lakers should try to build momentum into the playoff and be able to play their best games. amare, while a monster, is not fully healed (6pts last game) and might actually ruin their chemistry. if not and goes on avging 30 a game... sorry kwame... you'll get posterized a few dozen times. but i think lamar, whos peaking right now, would have a tremendous series along with kobe. i really think lamar can avg a triple double against them and i rather have bell guarding kobe then bowen.
it'll be a great high scoring show. much more entertaining to watch then the slow half court game spurs play. and i really doubt we can beat the spurs in a series.
Posted by: the Lamar Show | March 27, 2006 at 04:48 PM
I believe in going as hard as you can and taking whatever you're given. A Championship team should be able to beat any team they face, I find searching for the 'safe route' to the Finals to be a very cowardly attitude. I'd much rather have that sense of confidence and sportsmanship instilled in my players and fans rather than have them looking for an easy way around a real test. Championships are supposed to be difficult, granted the Lakers have very little chance this year, but if they got to the final by blowing a couple of games in order to avoid Phoenix, I'd be embarrased.
Posted by: Kevin McK | March 27, 2006 at 04:53 PM
Ak isn't Pau Gasol...I don't think I've ever heard him called Paul...just needling you lol
Posted by: Faith | March 27, 2006 at 04:53 PM
we should try to win as manny games as possible.. and at the same time.. keep our troops well rested... if we can get some games where we jump on them early and build a lead... then we can let our reserves play a little longer... and keep our main guns rested.. but with the way we handle leads.. the chances of that happening are slim... GO LAKERS!!
Posted by: bUCKY | March 27, 2006 at 04:57 PM
And further more:
Whatever road we take, it's to the Championship. ANYONE who gets in our way is going to be crushed. Phoenix, San Antonio, Dallas, Denver, Grizzles, or the Clippers bring them on. It doesn't matter, we are going to crush them! Destiny is calling and we will answer the call.
mike
Posted by: Michael Teniente | March 27, 2006 at 05:06 PM
Thanks for catching that, Faith. Spell check always changes Gasol's first name from "Pau" to "Paul" and I never pick up on it.
AK
Posted by: Andrew Kamenetzky | March 27, 2006 at 05:18 PM
I'd say you have to go all out and try to win every game. The Lakers have a bit of a cushion but not enough for us to root against them so that they'll land the 8th spot.
I think that the Lakers waited a bit too long to turn the corner and play god ball, (the jury is still out on whether they have actually turned the corner)and probably won't catch the Grizzlies. But that does not make playing SA or Dallas something we should root for either. Those are 2 of the 3 best teams in the league who the Lakers probably won't beat anyway. Basketball is a game of matchups and while I think that they match up better with SA and Dallas it's not as if the Lakers have a marked advantage in any are that would make playing them desirable.
In short, without even thinking about the possible playoff scenarios I don't think you should root for your team to lose unless they're so far out of the playoff race that you need to be thinking about the draft. When you take into consideration who the alternative teams are and it's two of the best 3 teams in the league you don't root for your team to lose so your team will have the "opportunity" to play them instead. It's just a ludicrous thought, especially when the Lakers are to a certain extent fighting for their playoff lives.
Posted by: xodus | March 27, 2006 at 05:23 PM
Mike T,
The Suns dictate the tempo against whoever they play against why would the Lakers be able to do it. No team in the NBA is able to slow down the Suns.
There are two ways to beat the Suns:
1. Take full advantage of what they give you on the defensive end, and have a hot night as well. Just about any Suns loss I can remember had some ridiculous final score.
2. Have a defensive team like the SA Spurs which is able to slow the Suns down just a little bit. While being a talented enough offensive team that can score in the 100s, because "slowing" down the Suns still necesitates that the opposing team score 100 points, that's how good they are offensively.
In my mind there are only two teams in the NBA that can beat the Suns. It's the two NBA finalists SA and Detroit.
Posted by: xodus | March 27, 2006 at 05:31 PM
When was the last time Dallas or Phoenix have been to the finals? These high powered offenses are always cut down in the playoffs. Sure they run amuck in a 82 game season, but the playoffs all that is out the window.
mike
Posted by: Michael Teniente | March 27, 2006 at 05:46 PM
Look at what is happening right now in New Jersey. Nets 50 Suns 31. These teams always slow down at the end of the year because teams start slowing the game down, ALWAYS!
mike
Posted by: Michael Teniente | March 27, 2006 at 05:48 PM
I really need to get off the Lakers Blog and other sports related sites I have a paper to write. I just thought I'd post this article I saw on nbcsports.com about Kwame.
His strong play recently is opening a lot of eyes, including my own. I openly bashed Kwame a few months back for not soliciting the help of Kareem, but like Kobe says in the article we don't know what's happening in practice. All we have to go on is what we heard in Washington, from The Jordans, Micheal and Eddie.
Posted by: xodus | March 27, 2006 at 05:49 PM
Mike T,
I don't think that Dallas or Phoenix will make the finals. That said I am going to go out and say that IF Dallas beats SA in the second round, I think the Suns would be in the Finals.
The Mavs have inproved defensively, but are still a team composed of offensive-minded players. And in a battle between two offensive teams the Suns would win.
Offensive teams don't make it to the Finals or win championships in any sport. But the Suns are the best offensive machine in 10 years, and they proved in last years playoffs that they're not going to be slowed down in the postseason. Think back to last year's playoffs, did the Spurs slow the Suns down? No! Like I said I believe that there are only two ways to beat the Suns and I don't think the Lakers are capable of doing either of them 4 times.
As long as Steve Nash is running the show over there, I don't see any team beating them other than SA or Detroit. And I'll stand by that until someone proves me wrong.
Posted by: xodus | March 27, 2006 at 05:58 PM
We played the Suns a while back before we got in this groove which hopefully will last agaist the Spurs. I think we have a chance against the Suns in the playoffs because we have the best pure shooter in the NBA, the ocho, and Suns have horrible defense. Anyone up for 82, regardless just as long as they get the win!Oh and props to Lamar and Kwame....finally Kobe has a supporting cast.
P.S.
Smush needs to work on his jump shot and defense. Making dunks all the time is not going to help us win games.
Posted by: Zoe | March 27, 2006 at 05:58 PM
AK,
why people always predict suns in 2nd place while dallas or SA in 1st.. it's weird, like u go for 1st or take the 3rd?? coz 2nd place has already been booked (Suns), is it because head to head records between those teams? anyway i just wana see LAKESS in playoff and definetly doesnt care bout who they'll macth up against..coz to be the champion u have to beat the best, right?
GO LAKERS
Posted by: k0be_fans | March 27, 2006 at 06:00 PM
xodus
What article?
Posted by: Michael Teniente | March 27, 2006 at 06:01 PM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11979529/ here's the link I forgot to post it on my earlier post. I've gotta stop doing two things at once lol
Posted by: xodus | March 27, 2006 at 06:02 PM
sorry miss typed i dont mean to write LAKESS its LAKERS.. btw is it my score board right NJ-SUNS 79-39?
come on we can beat the suns.. GO LAKERS
Posted by: k0be_fans | March 27, 2006 at 06:11 PM
Leading MVP Candidate Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns are playing New Jersey who just played a hard game at Detroit yesterday.
Score New Jersey 80- Suns 41 late in the 3rd.
I don't remember Kobe getting waxed for 40 points this year yet.
Posted by: Brandon | March 27, 2006 at 06:13 PM
O yeah, I read that one. Thanks anyway.
mike
Posted by: Michael Teniente | March 27, 2006 at 06:14 PM
Kobe fans
The reason why the Suns are #2 is because they have little chance of making up the # of games to be #1. The way the NBA seeding takes place is the TOP team in EACH division gets 1 spot in the top 3. That is why even though Dallas and San Antonio will have the 2 best records in the West, they are in the same Division so 1 team will be at #1 and the other team will be #4 at best.
Posted by: Brandon | March 27, 2006 at 06:17 PM
The Suns getting blown out by the Nets certainly doesn't help my argument. But I still can't say that there are more than 2 teams in the NBA capable of beating the Suns 4 times in a series.
Posted by: xodus | March 27, 2006 at 06:19 PM
kobe fans,
the division champions get the first 3 playoffs seeds
The Suns will finish 2nd because they lead the pacific division. The Spurs or the Mavs will finish 1st or 4th depending on who wins their division, they are in the same one.
After that the 4th and so on goes to the better records.
Posted by: lakofan | March 27, 2006 at 06:24 PM
That article about Garnett is very interesting.
It's a break from his consistent loyalty to Minnesota. I have a feeling they're going to trade him. They seem just that stupid.
Mitch, if you're listening, we expect you go give up anything other than Kobe for the guy and preferably not Lamar. Kwame would be nice to keep, but let's face it, right now Garnett is in another class.
He's worth any luxury penalty we might have to pay.
And while you're at it, it would be very nice to get Artest as well. After you sign KG, send Kobe and KG on a diplomatic mission to get Artest. The three guys crave winning and being competitive more than just about anyone in the league and would be awesome together.
Posted by: Benjamin | March 27, 2006 at 06:37 PM
The young Lakers need confidence. Winning breeds it. Win as many as possible. Phil wants a STREAK going into the playoffs and so should we.
Posted by: Vman | March 27, 2006 at 06:44 PM
Kobe fan,
Phoenix is always listed at #2 because they lead our division. Dallas and SA are in the same division so one has to be #1 and one has to be #4. That's just how it is, the top teams in each division get the first three spots regardless of whether another team in another divison has a better record.
Posted by: Weave-Man | March 27, 2006 at 06:48 PM
You always have to play for pride. Getting the 8th seed might give us better matchups, but would any of you feel comfortable knowing we threw away games, just so we could have a better matchup? I take pride in the fact that we have a winning record, and can have the 7th spot in the west. Do I like having to play Phoenix? HELL NO!!!!! But i'd rather see us man up and lose a series, than see us take the easy way out to win a series.
People always dog out pro athletes cuz they play for all the wrong reasons (money, fame, etc...) but any of us that has played a game of streetball, or football on the blacktop, or any other sport know that when your on the streets busting your a$$ the only thing you care about is your pride and winning the game. And anyone who expects the Lake Show to do anything else is wrong.
Posted by: Weave-Man | March 27, 2006 at 07:00 PM
call me crazy but I wouldn't want the Lakers to trade Lamar not even for Kevin Garnett. I think this team can go far, they just need to develop and we are seeing it right now. I think the team just needs 2 or 3 good players(power forward, point guard and a good veteran player, one that's not injury prone.)
I really like this team, Lamar and Kwame are proving that they have heart and passion to win.
Posted by: lakofan | March 27, 2006 at 07:02 PM
If we can do a possible trade with Garnett which invovles Kwame Benjamin then it would be a great mistake. We need Kwame as our center and defender and while KG is a great player, he would only bring very little progress to the Lake Show. In a way, Kwame for Garnett would practically switching our big men with no real improvement. Garnett would score but with Mihm as our center our defense would be blasted away. If we could get Garnett without trading away Kobe, Lamar, Kwame, maybe Smush, or Bynum, we would have a championship caliber team. But until then, these players, with the possible exception of Smush, are our untouchables. And dude forget Ron Artest. The Kings are probably gonna extend his contract and anything less than Kobe would be unacceptable to them.
How ironic that PETEY just said in an earlier blog that Kobe is for MVP. He said even earlier that Wade was the MVP and that he was gonna wear them rings this year. While that is certainly NOT gonna happen, it just shows that PETEY is nothing more than a bandwagon person and therefore has an IQ of 1.
Didn't like what I said about you Sonny? Well glad you are cow tipping in Suckremento with the Governator. After all it is very embarrasing to lose to the Warriors. Especially on your homecourt. And I'll say this. Better to be Broke-Backers than transexual weenies up there.
Go Lakers, f%$@ haters.
Posted by: arthas (Tom Brady) | March 27, 2006 at 07:05 PM
I agree with Mike T...Just make the playoffs. Its crazy to be saying the Lakers would rather face the Spurs than the Suns! C'mon..The Spurs are a legitimate FAVOURITE to win it all this year, what makes you think that they're gonna fold to the Lakers?
This Laker team were not expected to make the playoffs at all this year. Should the Lakers finish 7th or higher, it will be a good enough slap on the face for most sports writers.
Remember, we have Phil Jackson, one of the best post season coaches in league history, and we have Kobe, arguably the best player in league/ post season history. Should the Lakers play the Suns, it is extremely vital that they dictate the tempo from the offset.
Anyway, I don't think it makes a whole lot difference who we face in the playoffs. The top three, four teams in the west are no pushovers
Posted by: Nigel | March 27, 2006 at 07:08 PM
the Lakers should watch the video of how New Jersey beat the Suns by almost FORTY point,110 to 72 WOW!!!
Did someone watch that game? Was it defense?? or what was it? or just a lucky day for New Jersey? Or is New Jersey that good?
Posted by: lakofan | March 27, 2006 at 07:09 PM
Name Min Reb Ast PF Pts
S Marion, F 33 12 0 3 17
B Diaw, F 30 4 6 2 8
R Bell, G 21 5 1 3 7
A Stoudemire, C 14 2 0 3 0
S Nash, G 26 3 5 2 0
WOW!! 0 points for Nash and Amare , now that is defense
Posted by: lakofan | March 27, 2006 at 07:25 PM
We get the Suns on the 2nd game of a back to back. I hate that NBA scheduling. It may help a terrible team play a great team close for one game but for the most part it just makes players tired and injury prone. It shouldn't matter, like with NJ tonight, but it usually does.
Great that NJ is playing well of late. We definitely handed them 2 games. That's a team I know we can beat.
Posted by: Vman | March 27, 2006 at 07:31 PM
This is unrelated but have you guys seen the highlights of the Heat-Pacers game. Haslem and J O'neal got into a little scuffle. And in trying to separate them Shaq uses a choke hold. I don't think Shaq was actually trying to choke Jermaine but it looked bad. Of course Shaq was able to get out of it with out even getting a T.
Posted by: xodus | March 27, 2006 at 07:33 PM
Damn you serious? nash and amarae didnt score? man i need to watch those highlights..
Go Lakers...
Posted by: TrueLakerFan | March 27, 2006 at 07:40 PM
beating the suns is not as hard as people think. all you have to do is stop nash without double teaming him and you can win. new jersey beat them because they have jason kidd, a point guard who can play defense and run an offense. it will be difficult for us to beat the sun because smush can't play D at all. getting steals is not playing D. i actually think sasha can play better D than smush.
Posted by: vicious | March 27, 2006 at 07:47 PM